国盛证券首席经济学家熊园在研报中指出，若按照当前增速线性外推，一般公共预算收入基本能完成年初预算，但即使12月支出同比增速由11月 的-3.7%升至10%，全年财政收入总量也将大于支出约6300亿元，若12月支出与上年底持平，则财政收入总量将超收约1万亿，这部分资金有望形 成结转结余支撑2026年支出。 记者 王珍 财政部周三发布的数据显示，1-11月，全国一般公共预算收入200516亿元，同比增长0.8%，增速和前10个月持平；一般公共预算支出248538亿 元，同比增长1.4%，比前10个月回落0.6个百分点。 智通财经按照3月财政部发布的预算收支表计算，截至11月，一般公共预算收入完成今年预算的91.2%，支出进度达83.7%；纳入政府性基金后，1- 11月，广义财政收入完成进度为85.3%，广义财政支出进度为80.7%。支出进度明显偏慢。 分析人士指出，支出进度偏慢一方面是受财政收入增长承压的制约，另一方面也与地方化债约束、"增收节支"的财政安排有关。 中诚信国际研究院研究员闫彦明对智通财经表示，在经济下行压力加大以及房地产市场深度调整的背景下，今年财政收入特别是政府性基金预算 收入增长承压，1-11 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In March, national public budget revenue was 16,333 billion yuan, while expenditure was 27,719 billion yuan[2] - March fiscal revenue showed a slight recovery with a growth of +0.25%, but Q1 revenue was still down 1.1% year-on-year[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 2.2% in March, with a cumulative decline of 3.5% in Q1, falling short of the annual target of +3.7%[3] Fiscal Policy and Spending - Public fiscal expenditure in March grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with Q1 expenditure growth at 4.2%, slightly above the annual budget target of 4%[4] - The expenditure progress for Q1 was approximately 24.5% of the annual target, consistent with 2024 levels[4] - Social security and education expenditures increased by 9% and 8% respectively in March, while technology spending decreased by 4.8%[4] Government Fund and Debt Issuance - Government fund revenue in March was 2,866 billion yuan, down 12%, with land transfer revenue declining by 16.5%[4] - Government fund expenditure in March was 8,411 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28% year-on-year[4] - A total of 9,603 billion yuan in special bonds were issued in Q1, with issuance pace faster than in 2024 but slower than in 2022 and 2023[4] Future Outlook and Risks - The need for accelerated fiscal spending is emphasized due to potential tariff impacts and economic uncertainties[5] - Expected measures include increased consumer support and tax refunds for export enterprises[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and insufficient policy execution[5]