国盛证券首席经济学家熊园在研报中指出，若按照当前增速线性外推，一般公共预算收入基本能完成年初预算，但即使12月支出同比增速由11月 的-3.7%升至10%，全年财政收入总量也将大于支出约6300亿元，若12月支出与上年底持平，则财政收入总量将超收约1万亿，这部分资金有望形 成结转结余支撑2026年支出。 记者 王珍 财政部周三发布的数据显示，1-11月，全国一般公共预算收入200516亿元，同比增长0.8%，增速和前10个月持平；一般公共预算支出248538亿 元，同比增长1.4%，比前10个月回落0.6个百分点。 智通财经按照3月财政部发布的预算收支表计算，截至11月，一般公共预算收入完成今年预算的91.2%，支出进度达83.7%；纳入政府性基金后，1- 11月，广义财政收入完成进度为85.3%，广义财政支出进度为80.7%。支出进度明显偏慢。 分析人士指出，支出进度偏慢一方面是受财政收入增长承压的制约，另一方面也与地方化债约束、"增收节支"的财政安排有关。 中诚信国际研究院研究员闫彦明对智通财经表示，在经济下行压力加大以及房地产市场深度调整的背景下，今年财政收入特别是政府性基金预算 收入增长承压，1-11 ...

Group 1 - In October, public fiscal revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year. Tax revenue showed strong performance, rising by 8.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the cumulative growth of 0.02% in the previous eight months [1][4] - The strong growth in tax revenue in October is attributed to several factors, including a notable increase in individual income tax, which rose by 27.3% year-on-year. This may be linked to the active performance of the capital market and the implementation of new tax reporting regulations for internet platform enterprises [6][7] - The general public budget revenue for the first ten months of the year showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.8%, slightly above the initial budget target [4][11] Group 2 - Fiscal expenditure in October decreased by 12.9 percentage points to -9.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and a front-loaded fiscal schedule. Most expenditure categories recorded negative growth, particularly in infrastructure-related spending [11][12] - The revenue from land transfer in October fell by 27.3% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure in the real estate sector. The cumulative government fund budget revenue for the first ten months was down 2.8% year-on-year, below the initial budget target [17][18] - In the context of declining fixed asset investment, broad fiscal policy has accelerated, with significant financial tools and local debt limits being introduced. However, hard data on construction and investment has not shown significant improvement yet [20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fiscal situation in China for April 2025, focusing on government spending, revenue, and infrastructure investment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **Fiscal Spending Growth**: In April 2025, fiscal spending growth accelerated, primarily due to government debt financing support. The issuance of central ordinary and special government bonds has increased, with local governments shifting focus towards project investments, especially in infrastructure [3][5][8]. - **Local Government Investment**: Local governments have actively engaged in infrastructure investments through special bonds, with significant increases in government fund budget expenditures corresponding to local infrastructure investments. Social welfare-related expenditures have also risen, indicating increased pressure to maintain employment [5][6]. - **Revenue Improvement**: There was a marginal improvement in fiscal revenue in April 2025, although it remained in negative growth territory overall. Corporate income tax and export-related taxes provided some support, with corporate income tax improvements likely linked to corporate profit growth [6][9]. - **Structural Changes in Public Finance**: Public finance expenditures have shown structural changes, with a slight recovery in transportation spending and a decline in agricultural and forestry-related expenditures. This indicates a more proactive approach by local governments towards infrastructure investments [7][8]. - **Land Sale Revenue**: Land sale revenue growth remained negative in the first quarter of 2025, but micro-level data showed a recovery in land transaction prices across 330 cities. Fiscal confirmation of revenue lagged behind, only showing improvement in April [10]. - **Future Policy Outlook**: The future policy outlook suggests a preference for utilizing existing policies before considering any new measures. The second quarter will see continued acceleration in the implementation of existing policies, with potential new policies dependent on external pressures and upcoming political meetings [4][11][12]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Export Tax Revenue**: The first quarter of 2025 saw historically low export-related tax revenues, primarily due to high export tax rebates. This situation is linked to the "rush to export" phenomenon [9]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: The upcoming political meetings in July and August will be critical in determining whether additional fiscal measures will be introduced, especially if export growth approaches zero [13].