宏 观 研 究 | | | 宏观经济分析报告 chunj 地缘再起波澜，政策抢抓内需 ――2026 年 1 月宏观经济月报 | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： 周喜[Table_IndInvest] | 周喜 |  | SAC NO： 海外经济及政策环境 | S1150511010017 | 2026 | 年 | 1 月 | 30 | 日 | 美国方面，整体经济预计在特朗普减税政策以及科技企业资本开支的推动 下延续 2025 年底的强韧态势。美联储在最新一次议息会议上基于就业市场 下行风险和通胀上行风险均有减弱的判断如期将政策利率维持不变，后续 通胀能否持续缓和或成为再次降息的重要依据。当下反倒是白宫方面对于 现任理事的指控和对于新任联储主席的提名或成为短期影响市场降息预期 的关键。目前普遍预计再次降息的时间节点在年中前后。欧洲方面，岁末 年初欧元区经济仍处在弱复苏中，但前瞻指标有走软趋势。格陵兰岛问题 成为近期乃至未来一段时间内欧洲经济面临的最大不确 ...

证券研究报告/宏观利率研究 2026 年 01 月 27 日 国内降准降息仍有空间 全球债市波动加剧 宏观利率周报（20260119-20260123） 研报摘要 ⚫ 核心观点：尽管经济增速逐季有所下行，四季度不变价 GDP 同比增速仅为 4.5%， 但高基数等短期因素影响显著，环比增速稳定在合理区间，实际增长并未失控。叠加 "十五五"开门红预期，如果收益率继续下行，可能出现利率阶段底部。 ⚫ 行情回顾：12 月经济数据供强虚弱，固定资产投资累计同比-3.8%，罕见转负；社 消 12 月环比-0.12%，弱于季节性；三驾马车中，仅 12 月中国美元计价出口当月同比增 6.6%，在 AI 资本开支周期和中国制造的竞争优势支撑下韧性较强。叠加 MLF 超额续 作和海外避险情绪升温，以及央行关于"降准降息仍有空间"的表述，除 1 年期利率 外，3-30 年期利率不同程度下行，中债十债利率小幅回落至 1.8298%。 ⚫ 市场要闻：（1）资本市场。证监会正式发布公募基金业绩比较基准指引，中国基 金业协会同步发布操作细则。证监会严肃查处瑞丰达违法违规案件。金融政策。央行行 长潘功胜指出今年降准降息还有一定的空间。（2） ...

来源：华夏时报 根据央行近期披露的2025年金融数据，居民短期消费贷款下滑比较严重。2024年住户贷款增加2.72万亿 元，其中，短期贷款增加4732亿元，中长期贷款增加2.25万亿元；而2025年住户贷款只增加了4417亿 元，其中，短期贷款减少8351亿元，中长期贷款增加1.28万亿元。 从短期消费贷款余额看，2024年12月末，消费贷款余额是92050亿元，2025年12月末消费贷款的余额是 84300亿元，一年减少7750亿元。 居民消费贷款收缩的趋势在2024年已有所显现。2024年1月份居民消费贷款余额是95835亿元，一年减少 3785亿元。 居民消费贷款的下降，从存款方面也可以看出来。 2025年全年人民币存款增加26.41万亿元。其中，住户存款增加14.64万亿元，非金融企业存款增加2.31 万亿元，财政性存款增加6579亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加6.41万亿元。 2024年全年人民币存款增加17.99万亿元。其中，住户存款增加14.26万亿元，非金融企业存款减少2943 亿元，财政性存款减少2125亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加2.59万亿元。 作者：冉学东 消费贷款去年下滑如此之快， ...

【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 【实时热点】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 1803.00 | 4.28 | 纳斯达克指数 | 23436.02 | 0.91 | | CME比特币期货 | 89320.00 | -1.01 | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49384.01 | 0.63 | | ICE布油 | 64.40 | -1.29 | 美元指数 | 98.28 | -0.50 | | 伦敦金现 | 4938.35 | 2.18 | 标普500 | 6913.35 | 0.55 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | 6.96 | -0.03 | 日经225 | 53688.89 | 1.73 | | 香港重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | ...

Market Performance - On January 22, 2026, the A-share market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 12984.08 points, up 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index at 3052.59 points, up 0.70%. Over 4100 stocks rose, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 120 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.34% to 25858.89 points and a total trading volume of 146.2 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.38%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose slightly by 0.02%. For the month, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.18%, the China Enterprises Index by 0.42%, and the Tech Index by 5.23% [1] - In the U.S. stock market, all three major indices continued their upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.63% to 49,384.01 points, the S&P 500 up 0.55% to 6,913.35 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.91% to 23,436.02 points [1] New Stock Offerings - One new stock, Shimon Holdings, is available for subscription today, with no new stocks listed [2] - Shimon Holdings has a stock code of 001220, an issue price of 28 yuan per share, and a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.29 times. The company focuses on providing customized, integrated, and embedded supply chain logistics solutions for multinational manufacturing enterprises, aiming to meet the efficient, timely, and flexible supply chain management needs of clients [3] Important News - On January 22, 2026, the State Council's Food Safety Office, along with other departments, initiated a public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes. This includes drafts for "National Food Safety Standards for Prepared Dishes" and "Terminology and Classification of Prepared Dishes," aimed at protecting consumer rights and promoting high-quality industry development [4] - Major banks, including ICBC, ABC, Bank of China, CCB, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank, announced the implementation of the latest fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans. Key updates include extending the policy until December 31, 2026, expanding support to include credit card installment payments, and raising subsidy standards by removing previous limits on single transaction amounts and cumulative limits for borrowers [4]

2026.01. 22 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 1月20日，财政部发布多项财政贴息与担保政策。其中，《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策 有关事项的通知》（下称"通知"）引发市场关注。与此前政策相比，本轮个人消费贷款财政贴息政 策在实施期限、支持范围及规则设计等方面均作出重要调整，尤其是信用卡账单分期业务被首次明确 纳入中央财政贴息支持范围。 在政策发布后，多家银行迅速作出回应并着手研究落地安排，包括工行、农行、中行、建行、交行、 邮储、招行。多位银行人士对记者表示，信用卡分期纳入贴息后，为银行消费金融业务打开了新的操 作空间，但在具体执行层面，贴息如何嵌入既有分期流程、哪些客户与交易能够真正覆盖，各家略有 不同。 业内认为，这一调整不仅拓宽了财政贴息政策的覆盖边界，也释放出消费刺激政策由传统贷款产品向 支付与交易环节延伸的信号。在政策实施期内，符合条件的信用卡账单分期业务，可按年化1个百分 点享受财政贴息支持，居民实际分期成本有望进一步下降。 信用卡账单分期首次纳入财政贴息 根据通知，个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施期限由原定的2026年8月31日延长至2026年1 ...

"信用卡分期本身已是成熟的支付与信贷基础设施，此次纳入贴息，意味着政策开始向交易端下沉，而 不仅停留在贷款发放端。"一位股份制银行人士对记者表示。 在贴息规则方面，政策同步"松绑"。通知明确取消单笔消费贴息金额不超过500元的限制，也取消了每 名借款人在一家经办机构可享受5万元以下累计贴息上限1000元的规定，仅保留"每名借款人在一家经办 机构年度累计贴息上限3000元"的限制。 银行存量体系可直接承接 1月20日，财政部发布多项财政贴息与担保政策。其中，《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策有 关事项的通知》（下称"通知"）引发市场关注。与此前政策相比，本轮个人消费贷款财政贴息政策在实 施期限、支持范围及规则设计等方面均作出重要调整，尤其是信用卡账单分期业务被首次明确纳入中央 财政贴息支持范围。 在政策发布后，多家银行迅速作出回应并着手研究落地安排，包括工行、农行、中行、建行、交行、邮 储、招行。多位银行人士对记者表示，信用卡分期纳入贴息后，为银行消费金融业务打开了新的操作空 间，但在具体执行层面，贴息如何嵌入既有分期流程、哪些客户与交易能够真正覆盖，各家略有不同。 业内认为，这一调整不仅拓宽了财政贴息政策 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have released five policy documents aimed at optimizing financial support for personal consumption loans, equipment updates, private investment guarantees, service industry loans, and small and micro enterprise loans [1][9][29] - The personal consumption loan subsidy policy has been extended until December 31, 2026, with adjustments to the subsidy standards and an expanded range of supported financial institutions [4][5][6] - The equipment update loan subsidy policy includes a 1.5% subsidy on fixed asset loans for equipment updates, applicable for up to two years, and has been expanded to include various sectors such as construction, aviation, and digital technology [10][11][12] Group 2 - The private investment guarantee plan has a total quota of 500 billion yuan, to be implemented over two years, focusing on supporting small and micro enterprises in various sectors including technology upgrades and service industry enhancements [17][18] - The plan includes a risk-sharing mechanism where banks will bear at least 20% of the loan risk, while the government guarantee fund will cover up to 80% [19] - The government will also reduce guarantee fees and increase the compensation limit for the guarantee fund to enhance support for private investments [20] Group 3 - The service industry loan subsidy policy has been extended to December 31, 2026, with an increased subsidy cap of 10 million yuan per loan and a 1% annual subsidy rate [23][24] - The policy now includes additional sectors such as digital, green, and retail industries, expanding the scope of financial support [24][25] - The implementation of these policies will involve streamlined processes for fund allocation and enhanced collaboration among financial institutions and regulatory bodies [26][28]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced that the overall fiscal expenditure in 2026 will "only increase, not decrease," with a focus on ensuring strong support in key areas [1][1][1] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments released a notification to implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises, providing a subsidy of 1.5 percentage points per year for up to two years, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan per enterprise [1][1][1] - A special guarantee plan of 500 billion yuan will be established through the National Financing Guarantee Fund to support eligible small and micro enterprises' private investment loans [1][1][1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of establishing a national-level merger fund to promote innovation and entrepreneurship [1][1] - The recent increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 85 yuan per ton reflects fluctuations in international oil prices [3][3] - The announcement of tax and fee preferential policies for community service industries, including elderly care and housekeeping services, aims to stimulate growth in these sectors [1][1][1] Group 3 - The recent performance reports indicate significant profit growth for several companies, such as Hikvision with an 18.46% increase in net profit and Longzi Co. with a projected increase of 245.25%-302.8% [7][7] - Debon Holdings plans to withdraw its A-share listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, potentially becoming the first company to voluntarily delist in 2026 [3][3] - The use of satellite technology in the banking sector is becoming more prevalent, with banks like SPDB and CMB launching satellites to enhance risk control capabilities [3][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a series of policy measures introduced by the central bank and the Ministry of Finance to support economic development and improve the lives of citizens, focusing on personal consumption loans and private investment [1][2]. Group 1: Personal Consumption Loan Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China announced the optimization of the personal consumption loan subsidy policy, effective from January 1, 2026, with an adjustment period from September 1, 2025, to December 31, 2026 [1][2]. - The policy includes a 1% annual subsidy rate for credit card installment payments and removes the previous limits on single consumption subsidy amounts and cumulative subsidy caps for individual borrowers [3]. Group 2: Equipment Update Loan Policies - A notification regarding the optimization of equipment update loan subsidies was issued, effective from January 1, 2026, expanding support to various sectors including construction, aviation, and artificial intelligence [4]. - The plan includes a total scale of 500 billion yuan, implemented over two years, to support eligible small and micro enterprises in their investment activities [5]. Group 3: Service Industry Loan Policies - A joint announcement from multiple departments regarding the optimization of service industry loan subsidies will also take effect on January 1, 2026, extending the implementation period until December 31, 2026 [6]. - The policy allows for a maximum subsidy of 1 million yuan per loan for new loans issued in 2026, with a subsidy period not exceeding one year and an annual subsidy rate of 1% [6]. Group 4: Central Bank Policies - The central bank introduced eight policies aimed at optimizing economic structure, including a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points and an increase in the re-lending quota for small and private enterprises by 500 billion yuan [9]. - The total re-lending quota for technology innovation and transformation was increased by 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, supporting high R&D investment private small and medium enterprises [9].