"买方真空"风险显现 日债收益率迭创新高 ◎记者 陈佳怡 黄冰玉 自5月"惊雷"乍响之后，日债就如同打开了"潘多拉魔盒"：长期限日本国债收益率短暂回落后持续攀 升，并在近日创下阶段性新高。 分析人士认为，日本财政赤字风险与政策不确定性共振致使日债投资者"望而却步"，叠加日本央行缩减 购债规模计划所导致的供需失衡矛盾仍在，日债短期内持续承压。鉴于日债市场风险警报尚未解除，日 本央行货币政策路径调整仍维持谨慎步伐。 日债收益率节节攀升 财政隐忧"绊住"投资者 分析认为，日债持续承压的直接原因在于供需两端的不匹配，其本质是日本财政的隐忧令部分投资 者"望而却步"。 据报道，在7月20日举行的日本第27届参议院选举中，由自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟丧失参议院过 半数议席。这是自民党自1955年成立以来，首次在国会众参两院都未能取得过半数席位。 这场选举结果，直接将日本财政政策推向"宽松加码"的预期漩涡，加剧了市场对日本债务问题的担 忧。"当前日本国债收益率持续攀升，在一定程度上受财政赤字风险与政策不确定性共振影响。"东方金 诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，投资者担忧，若执政联盟为稳选情转向财政扩张，日本国债的风险 溢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bank of America analyst Adarsh Sinha indicates that interest rate differentials are no longer the primary driver of the US dollar's movement since the announcement of comprehensive tariffs by Trump in April [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting the Dollar - The decoupling of the dollar from interest rate differentials reflects structural risk premiums in the US [1] - Contributing factors include rising inflation due to tariffs, weakened economic growth outlook, peak exceptionalism of the US economy, and increasing fiscal deficit risks [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Interest rate differentials may regain importance in driving the dollar, especially if the Federal Reserve implements more rate cuts sooner than expected [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global economic outlook for 2025, highlighting a complex and fragile environment with high uncertainty and frequent shocks. The global market is expected to oscillate between policy reversals and recession concerns [3][5]. Core Economic Insights - **United States**: Core growth momentum is gradually weakening, with negative policy impacts becoming more pronounced. The economy recorded a negative GDP growth of -0.3% in Q1, primarily due to tariff impacts and reduced consumer spending [3][18][19]. - **Europe**: Limited macroeconomic improvement is noted, with Germany's fiscal deficit temporarily boosting confidence, but consumer investment remains low. The European Central Bank is expected to have 1-2 rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [4]. - **Japan**: High inflation continues to suppress economic recovery, with wage growth offset by inflationary pressures. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again before the end of 2025 [4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - **U.S. Stocks**: The S&P 500 may test previous highs around 6150, but volatility is expected, particularly influenced by inflation and fiscal risks [5]. - **U.S. Bonds**: Long-term yields are anticipated to remain high, fluctuating between 4.2%-4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [5]. - **Dollar**: The DXY index is expected to soften to around 95 in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - **Japanese Market**: The Nikkei 225 index is projected to fluctuate between 36,000-40,000 points [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Continued bullish outlook on gold, with recommendations to buy on dips [5]. Consumer and Employment Trends - **Consumer Spending**: There is a slowdown in consumer spending driven by wage growth deceleration and diminishing pre-consumption effects. Leading indicators are nearing levels seen during the subprime mortgage crisis [6][22]. - **Inflation Pressures**: Rising upstream costs are expected to translate into retail price increases, with CPI potentially returning to 3% by mid-year [6][28]. - **Employment Market**: Job cuts in mid-to-high-end positions are increasing, with a decline in support for service and government employment. The unemployment rate is projected to rise but remain below historical averages [32][34][35]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Insights - **Fiscal Deficit Risks**: The "Great Beautiful" policy under the Trump administration is expected to expand the deficit, pushing long-term bond yields higher [6]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with potential rate cuts in late 2025. The market anticipates about 3 rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 to early 2026 [41][45]. - **Tariff Impacts**: Tariffs are raising import costs, leading to retail price adjustments. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to elevate inflation expectations [29][31]. Additional Considerations - **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The overall economic trajectory suggests a balance of risks and opportunities, necessitating careful navigation of frequent shocks and ongoing volatility [5]. - **Tax Policy Changes**: The recent tax reforms favoring the wealthy and corporations may exacerbate income inequality and fiscal pressures, with significant implications for low-income households and social spending [52]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.