转折开始于 2024 年，外资全年净流入中国债市 416 亿美元，一改此前颓势。进入 2025 年，这一趋势进一步强化：截至 5 月末，1169 家境外机构（覆盖 70 多个国家和地区）持有中国债券规模，较 2024 年末增加 2700 多亿元，8 月单月净流入更逼近 390 亿美元，资金回流信号显著。 2023年美联储加息新闻 真准利率 200 日 景德 旅遊率 15.29 1.40 324 325 126 200 200 2AD 全球债市版图中，外资对中国债券的态度在三年内完成了一个"减持 - 增持 - 加码" 的戏剧性转变，从 2023 年的谨慎撤离，到 2025 年的持续入场，背后是多 重市场的共振。 2023 年，美联储激进加息将美债收益率推至 22 年高位，5.5%-5.7% 的收益水平远超中国三年期国债 2.35% 的收益率。利率差下，外资选择用脚投票，当年 减持中国国债约 800 亿元，不少海外基金暂时将中债移出配置清单。 600 500 400 200 0 0 10 20 30 40 SD 80 市场普遍认为，短期美元资产波动或影响外资入场节奏，但中长期看，随着中国债券纳入全球指数权重提升、 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bank of America analyst Adarsh Sinha indicates that interest rate differentials are no longer the primary driver of the US dollar's movement since the announcement of comprehensive tariffs by Trump in April [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting the Dollar - The decoupling of the dollar from interest rate differentials reflects structural risk premiums in the US [1] - Contributing factors include rising inflation due to tariffs, weakened economic growth outlook, peak exceptionalism of the US economy, and increasing fiscal deficit risks [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Interest rate differentials may regain importance in driving the dollar, especially if the Federal Reserve implements more rate cuts sooner than expected [1]