Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently reported at 1.3385, down 0.14% from the previous trading day, despite a monthly increase of 3.8%, potentially marking the strongest monthly performance since November 2023 [1][3] - The strength of the GBP is primarily driven by three core factors, with the first being the continuous pressure on the US dollar index, influenced by uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies and the Trump administration's delay in implementing tariff policies until July [1][3] - The trade surplus of $12 billion between the US and UK significantly contrasts with the trade deficit between the US and EU, which weakens the potential impact of cross-border trade frictions on the GBP [1] Group 2 - The second key support for the GBP comes from the expected divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, with the market anticipating a gradual easing strategy from the Bank of England, projecting a total rate cut of approximately 85 basis points for the year [3] - Despite a short-term technical pullback, all exponential moving averages (EMA) indicate a bullish arrangement, suggesting that the upward trend has not been reversed [3] - The focus of the market is shifting towards the upcoming US non-farm payroll and core PCE price index data, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and, consequently, the fluctuations of the US dollar index [3]