7月底以来，国际黄金市场仿佛坐了一趟惊险的过山车，每一次价格跳动都牵动着全球投资者的心弦。 从伦敦金的报价来看，7月下旬还在每盎司3350美元附近稳健运行的黄金，在8月第一周突然发力，一度冲破3500美元关口，创下阶段性新高。然而好景不 长，紧接着便是连续三日的回调，跌幅超过3%，让不少追高入场的散户投资者捏了一把冷汗。这种"冲高回落"的走势并非偶然，背后是全球经济政策、地 缘政治与市场情绪的复杂博弈。 图片来源：东方财富网 四幕剧：降息观望、非农引爆、关税乌龙、特朗普救场 第二阶段是8月初（8月1日-8月4日）的飙涨。在疲软非农数据（新增7.3万，前值下修25.8万）的推动下，9月降息概率从48%提升至95%，美元跌至一周新 低，美债收益率跌破4.2%。特朗普对印度加征25%关税，瑞士精炼厂暂停对美出口，伴随着中东冲突发酵，地缘风险升级对黄金的需求。同时，欧洲央行同 日宣布维持利率不变，进一步强化了全球流动性宽松的预期，伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）的数据显示，这三天全球黄金ETF的净流入量达到28吨，为今年 以来单周最高。 第三阶段是8月5日-8月8日的二次冲刺期。主要原因是关税乌龙引爆行情，8月8日市场传 ...

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently reported at 1.3385, down 0.14% from the previous trading day, despite a monthly increase of 3.8%, potentially marking the strongest monthly performance since November 2023 [1][3] - The strength of the GBP is primarily driven by three core factors, with the first being the continuous pressure on the US dollar index, influenced by uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies and the Trump administration's delay in implementing tariff policies until July [1][3] - The trade surplus of $12 billion between the US and UK significantly contrasts with the trade deficit between the US and EU, which weakens the potential impact of cross-border trade frictions on the GBP [1] Group 2 - The second key support for the GBP comes from the expected divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, with the market anticipating a gradual easing strategy from the Bank of England, projecting a total rate cut of approximately 85 basis points for the year [3] - Despite a short-term technical pullback, all exponential moving averages (EMA) indicate a bullish arrangement, suggesting that the upward trend has not been reversed [3] - The focus of the market is shifting towards the upcoming US non-farm payroll and core PCE price index data, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and, consequently, the fluctuations of the US dollar index [3]