申万宏源 「研选」说 黄金供需复盘 型 ■ 双 ◎ 章 章 初 站在2025年年底的回望点上。 黄金市场走势傲人。 2022年3季度以来,各国央行购金占黄金需 求比例均在2010年以来高位水平,2024年四季 度以来随着金价高企以及黄金投资交易热情的 上升, ETF及类似产品需求上升, 金饰制造需求 下降。 数据来源：wind，数据区间自2021年1月4日至2025年12月29日 | 走賞 | 黄金ETF年度收益 | | --- | --- | | 2021 | -4.71% | | 2022 | 9.24% | | 2023 | 16.34% | | 2024 | 27.45% | | 2025 | 62.75% | 数据来源:wind 注: 2025年数据为2024年12月30日至2025年12月29日的区间 收益率。表格中引用的etf数据为某基金公司黄金ETF数据,仅做 数据引用参考,不构成宣传推介。 黄金不再仅仅是珠宝商手中的饰品,更是各 国央行重塑货币主权的战略武器、投资者交易 软件里的重点关注对象。 根据世界黄金协会数据,黄金的供给端每季 度数据相对稳定,近年一直在每季度1200 吨-1300吨左 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the international monetary system, emphasizing the dual anchors of the US dollar: the "legal anchor" based on national credit and the "functional anchor" provided by its robust financial markets, which have allowed the dollar to maintain and even strengthen its global position despite various crises [1][2]. Group 1: Sovereign Currency Anchor - The evolution of currency forms has transitioned from commodity-based (gold and silver) to credit-based systems, with modern fiat currencies relying on national credit as their "legal anchor" [4][7]. - The modern fiat currency's essence is a special debt backed by national sovereignty, which requires public trust in its value and stability [8]. Group 2: International Currency Anchor - The international monetary system relies on a dual anchoring mechanism, where the "legal anchor" is supported by national credit, while the "functional anchor" is established through a strong financial market that provides stability and liquidity [9][10]. - The US dollar's global dominance is attributed to its extensive and efficient financial market, which supports a vast array of transactions and serves as a safe haven for global capital [10][14]. Group 3: Historical Validation of the Dollar's Functional Anchor - The dollar's international status was solidified through historical events, including the establishment of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent oil dollar mechanism, which reinforced its role as a global reserve currency [19][24]. - The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the dollar's position as the "ultimate safe asset," as global capital flowed into US markets despite the crisis originating in the US [28][30]. Group 4: Implications for the Renminbi - The current shift in the international monetary system presents a strategic opportunity for the internationalization of the Renminbi, as the weakening of the dollar's dominance creates a window for alternative currencies [37][41]. - The article suggests that building a strong financial market and strategically planning for international currency status are crucial for the Renminbi's future [39][40].