证券研究报告 宏观视角 金价近五千、银价破一百的启示 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 25 日│美国 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 2023 年来，我们始终看好以黄金为代表的贵金属价格重估（参见《全球央行购金百年史：任重而道远》，2024/5/10）。 随着全球地缘政治重构和财政可持续性恶化均驶入"快车道"，我们持续看好这类有一定"货币属性"的商品的长期 配置价值。但随着贵金属重估进入"共识"阶段，我们也进一步探讨这一趋势对更广义资产配置的启示，①全球变局 下黄金、白银的走势提醒我们，货币"含金量"下降、"估值锚"快速向上漂移，我们对供给稀缺实物资产和核心股 权资产的定价体系或许需要有所调整。②全球大宗商品、包括 AI 和国防军工航天等领域稀缺关键商品的供需平衡变化 可能持续推动更广义的商品、资源品价格重估，鉴于 2026 后与 2025 年前相比，全球投资周期将更为"耗材"，且 AI 基建及国防军工等核心需求增量的价格敏感度较低；同时，中国地产相关耗材量下降接近尾声，全球资源品需求不再 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver prices, with COMEX silver futures reaching a historic high of over $62 per ounce and Shanghai silver futures closing at 14,373 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.44% increase [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to structural changes in demand, including increased imports to the U.S. due to tariffs and the activation of silver's investment properties, leading to a substantial rise in global silver ETF holdings [2] - The macroeconomic environment, supply-demand dynamics, and market sentiment are identified as key factors driving the recent increase in silver prices, with a projected market shortfall of 2,950 tons by 2025 [3] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to influence gold and silver prices, with market participants focusing on the guidance regarding interest rate paths for the first half of next year [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to silver futures trading margins and price limits, aiming to guide rational trading and prevent excessive volatility [5] - The current market conditions suggest that while silver prices may continue to rise, there is a need for caution regarding potential technical corrections due to its higher volatility compared to gold [4][3]