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黄金白银,彻底涨疯了
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-29 11:31
这一次,黄金白银彻底涨疯了! 9月29日,贵金属资产在期货和股市双双迎来大涨行情。 今天,黄金期货主力合约成交额2874.47亿元,比上日增加了500多亿元,而白银期货主力合约成交额达到了2481.96亿元,比上日一下子大涨了近千亿,增 幅高达64%。 统计发现,今天黄金白银两大期货品种合计加权成交额高达7780亿元,对比A股全日成交2.18万亿元,已然超过了三分之一,可见现在资金有多疯狂。 从消息面来看,近期贵金属频频迎来各方面的利好驱动。 上周五,美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.9%,符合预期的通胀数据减少了市场对降息前景的担忧,金银开始加速上涨,白银表现更为强势。 近日美联储多位鸽派官员接连表态,明确支持"年内再降息两次、每次25个基点",这与此前美联储点阵图暗示的宽松路径形成呼应,又进一步强化了市场 对 "宽松周期加速" 的预期。 同时,最近地缘冲突频发,尤其以黎、俄乌等战争冲突战火再燃,也引发市场的担忧。9月23日,特朗普在社交媒体上发文称,"俄罗斯在乌克兰漫无目的 地作战",并称俄罗斯是'纸老虎',乌克兰在欧盟和北约支持下,有望'赢回全部乌克兰,恢复原状'。" 此外,特朗普又在半导体、设备、 ...
黄金白银,彻底涨疯了!
格隆汇APP· 2025-09-29 11:11
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in gold and silver prices, driven by various market factors, including inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies, indicating a strong demand for these precious metals as safe-haven assets [2][3][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, gold futures rose by 1.35% to 866.52 CNY per gram, reaching a historical high, while silver futures surged by 3.92% to 10,939 CNY per kilogram, also breaking new records [2]. - The A-share precious metals sector increased by 3.6%, with all related stocks showing strong performance, positively impacting the non-ferrous and minor metals sectors [2]. - The trading volume for gold futures reached 287.447 billion CNY, an increase of over 50 billion CNY from the previous day, while silver futures saw a trading volume of 248.196 billion CNY, up nearly 100 billion CNY, marking a 64% increase [4][7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Recent favorable news for precious metals includes the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year at 2.9%, which alleviated concerns about interest rate cuts, leading to accelerated price increases for gold and silver [8]. - Dovish statements from several Federal Reserve officials supporting potential interest rate cuts have reinforced market expectations for an accelerated easing cycle [8]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, have heightened market anxiety, further driving demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with a total value of approximately 4.5 trillion USD, surpassing the 3.5 trillion USD in U.S. Treasury reserves [9]. - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 74.02 million ounces as of August 2025, marking a continuous increase for ten months, with a total purchase of 36 tons from January to July 2025 [12]. Group 4: Price Trends and Predictions - Gold prices have risen nearly 45% year-to-date, making it the best-performing asset among major asset classes, while silver has seen an increase exceeding 60% [15]. - Institutions have raised their price targets for gold, with expectations of reaching 4,000 USD per ounce by the end of the year, and potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to 4,500 USD or even 5,000 USD under certain conditions [18]. Group 5: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver futures have experienced a notable increase in trading volume, indicating heightened market interest compared to gold [20][21]. - The silver market is facing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with industrial demand driven by sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles, while supply constraints are exacerbated by environmental regulations and labor disputes in major producing countries [24][26]. - The current market dynamics reflect a structural phase where industrial demand and valuation recovery are driving silver prices, supported by the ongoing energy revolution and monetary easing [33].
黄金白银,彻底涨疯了!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-29 11:03
Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, has experienced significant price increases and trading volume surges, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors. Group 1: Price Movements - As of September 29, gold futures rose by 1.35% to 866.52 yuan per gram, reaching a historical high, while silver futures surged by 3.92% to 10,939 yuan per kilogram, also hitting a new peak [1] - The precious metals sector in the A-share market increased by 3.6%, indicating strong performance across all related stocks [1] - Year-to-date, COMEX gold prices have increased by nearly 45%, while COMEX silver has risen over 60%, outperforming most commodities and stock markets [11] Group 2: Trading Volume - The combined trading volume of gold and silver futures reached 778 billion yuan, accounting for over one-third of the total A-share market turnover of 2.18 trillion yuan [3] - Gold futures trading volume increased by over 500 billion yuan from the previous day, while silver futures saw a nearly 1 billion yuan increase, marking a 64% rise [1] Group 3: Market Drivers - Recent favorable economic indicators, such as the U.S. core PCE price index remaining at 2.9%, have alleviated concerns about interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have heightened market uncertainty, driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [4] - The potential U.S. government shutdown could delay key employment data, further complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and increasing demand for precious metals [4] Group 4: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with total holdings valued at approximately $4.5 trillion, surpassing the $3.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [6] - China's central bank has also been actively increasing its gold reserves, with a total of 7.402 million ounces as of August 2025, marking the tenth consecutive month of purchases [8] Group 5: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has seen a more pronounced price increase compared to gold, with a 40% rise since June, driven by strong industrial demand, particularly in the solar energy sector [15] - The supply-demand imbalance for silver is at its most acute in a decade, with significant increases in demand from the electric vehicle and semiconductor industries [17][18] - The silver market is characterized by rigid demand growth and limited supply elasticity, with a projected supply deficit of 3,657 tons by 2025 [19][20] Group 6: Investment Sentiment - Institutional forecasts for gold prices have risen, with expectations of reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of the year, and potential scenarios suggesting prices could approach $5,000 per ounce if a small percentage of U.S. Treasury funds flow into gold [14] - Speculative trading in silver has intensified, with non-commercial net long positions increasing significantly, indicating strong market interest [23]
白银暴涨14年新高!普通人如何用“黄金+白银”对冲通胀?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 19:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising popularity of silver and gold as asset allocation options for ordinary people amid global inflation pressures, driven by supply-demand imbalances, safe-haven demand, and industrial revolution benefits [2][3][4][5][6]. Group 2 - The global silver market has experienced a continuous supply-demand imbalance for five years, with a projected shortfall of 5,000 tons in 2024 and 3,660 tons in 2025, driven by weak mining output and surging demand from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries [3]. - Increased geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have led to a surge in safe-haven investments, with silver becoming a new target for funds due to its lower price and greater elasticity compared to gold [4]. - The gold-silver ratio reached as high as 105:1, prompting market participants to view silver as undervalued, leading to increased investments in silver to align its price closer to gold [5]. - Gold is viewed as a "safe-haven" asset due to its monetary properties and stability, with central banks globally purchasing record amounts of gold, reinforcing its long-term value [6]. - Silver's industrial properties make it more sensitive to economic recovery, with demand driven by factors such as accelerated photovoltaic installations and manufacturing PMI rebounds, allowing it to hedge against inflation while capturing growth opportunities [8]. Group 3 - Data comparisons show that in March 2025, when U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, gold rose by 1.8% while silver only increased by 0.7%, indicating gold's dominant safe-haven role; conversely, in June, when manufacturing PMI improved, silver rose by 1.1% while gold only increased by 0.3%, highlighting silver's industrial strength [10]. - Recommendations for ordinary investors include diversifying their portfolios with a mix of gold and silver based on risk preferences, such as conservative (70% gold, 30% silver) or balanced (50% gold, 50% silver) allocations [10]. - Suggested investment tools include physical assets like gold and silver bars, ETFs for liquidity, and account trading for convenience, while cautioning against common pitfalls such as chasing high prices, ignoring storage costs, and making single-asset bets [10].
突发!国际金价冲破3550美元,国内金饰价破千,美联储降息预期成最大推手|大宗风云
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-01 15:16
与此同时,特朗普政府解雇库克引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧,这导致市场避险需求增加,成为利多 黄金因素之一。据悉,美国总统特朗普一直强调,美联储降息可以减少国债利息支付,同时为制造业回 流提供低廉的资金成本,有利于投资;而美联储主席鲍威尔迟迟不降息,特朗普对此耿耿于怀。 对此,何燚表示,美联储最终会妥协,不会发生鲍威尔继续"硬杠"特朗普政府的局面,主要原因在于特 朗普是近几十年权力最大的一任总统,国会基本被共和党控制,而九名大法官中由共和党任命的则有六 位,这进一步巩固了特朗普的权力,因而他可以使用更多的手段施压美联储降息,而这也会导致美联储 独立性受到威胁,进而导致黄金上涨。 与此同时,何燚表示,地缘博弈持续恶化,尽管美国协调俄罗斯和乌克兰停战,但是短期仍然不见效 果,双方提出的停火条件存在分歧,无法达成一致。此外,亚太地区大国博弈及全球关税博弈持续,这 都推动利多因素持续发酵。中长期利多因素仍然存在,比如美债规模连创新高、全球央行购金等。 与此同时,除了黄金价格上涨外,白银也出现大涨。对此,赵复初表示,白银现货价格突破40美元大 关,创下了2011年以来的新高,但离1980年的历史高点(每盎司49.45美元 ...
美联储“鸽”派转向 贵金属价格上行
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-26 00:26
在美联储货币政策转向的预期提振下,昨日期货市场贵金属板块走强,其中,沪金主力合约2510微涨 0.46%,沪银主力合约2510上涨1.89%。 对于二者的分化表现,徽商期货贵金属分析师从姗姗向期货日报记者表示,在持续走高的背景下,黄金 价格对美联储货币政策的敏感度在逐渐下降,而白银价格对美联储政策的敏感度则仍较高。此外,白银 受工业属性影响较大,受国内宏观政策变动的影响更为明显,其价格波动幅度或大于黄金。 除此之外,中泰期货产融发展事业总部总经理助理史家亮表示,有色金属铜的表现较强,对白银而言也 形成利多影响。他解释说,受宏观经济联动、工业需求共振以及市场情绪偏好等因素影响,白银和铜的 价格常呈现同向波动,因此铜价表现偏强能为白银价格提供动力。此外,白银价格突破近14年高位后破 位上涨,技术面表现强势,一旦有宏观利好叠加更容易出现大幅拉升行情。 值得注意的是,白银本身的基本面并不弱。据光大期货研究所贵金属资深分析师展大鹏介绍,光伏产业 的爆发式增长直接拉动白银需求,光伏银浆需求量占白银总需求量的比重已超过20%。此外,新能源汽 车、5G电子等领域的升级也在持续贡献增量需求,2025年全球白银供需缺口预计将超过 ...
银价狂飙创14年新高!鲍威尔陷“装修门”漩涡,贵金属市场风云突变|大宗风云
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-07-15 13:05
Group 1: Silver Price Surge - International silver prices have seen a significant increase, with London silver reaching $38.24 per ounce and New York silver at $38.55 per ounce as of July 15, marking a year-to-date increase of 35% [2][3] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets, particularly following Trump's announcement of tariffs on multiple countries [2][3] - Silver ETFs have outperformed gold ETFs, with an 18% increase in the last three months compared to gold's 4% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply has been unable to meet demand, with a reported supply gap of 5,000 tons last year, as total demand reached 36,700 tons while supply was only 31,700 tons [4][5] - The World Silver Association predicts that this supply shortage will continue, with an expected shortfall of approximately 3,660 tons by 2025 [5] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in the photovoltaic and new energy sectors, is a key driver of this increasing demand [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for changes in U.S. monetary policy under the Federal Reserve are influencing market dynamics for precious metals [6][8] - The potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, impacting the strength of the U.S. dollar and subsequently benefiting gold and silver prices [8][9] - Market participants are advised to remain cautious regarding short-term price movements, particularly for gold, while considering silver as a favorable investment due to its current performance and market conditions [9][10]
2025 年白银价格预测:工业需求与金融属性共振下的投资新机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 14:06
Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic breakthrough, with spot silver prices stabilizing above $36, nearing a 13-year high, and rising for six consecutive trading days [1] - The World Bank's latest report predicts a 17% increase in silver prices by 2025, driven by both industrial and financial attributes [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap for silver is widening due to stagnant growth in global silver mining and a high by-product silver ratio of 70%, compounded by rising ESG costs and frequent strikes in major producing countries [3] - COMEX inventory saw a reduction of 2.46 tons on June 24, while ETF holdings increased by 127.21 tons, indicating institutional recognition of silver's long-term value [3] - Demand is structurally surging, with silver usage in photovoltaic applications expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.7%, reaching 7,560 tons by 2025, accounting for 34% of industrial demand [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, silver usage per vehicle is projected to increase by 71% to 35 grams, leading to an additional demand of 1,400 tons from an annual production of 40 million vehicles [3] Group 2: Financial Attributes and Market Trends - The current gold-silver ratio stands at 91:1, significantly deviating from the historical average of 40-70:1, which has historically led to substantial price increases for silver during previous corrections [4] - The anticipated onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle is expected to enhance silver's holding value, with a greater than 70% probability of rate cuts by Q3 2025 [4] - Recent data shows an increase in silver options volatility, with the SVXY index rising from 35 to 48, reflecting heightened market expectations for price fluctuations [4] Group 3: Trading Platform Innovations - The company has developed a three-tiered protective system to address common industry pain points such as data fraud and slow withdrawals [5] - The trading platform offers a fully transparent trading chain, with unique transaction codes for verification and compliance with FCA transparency requirements [5] - An intelligent risk control system dynamically adjusts leverage based on market volatility, effectively managing risk during market downturns [5] - The platform's cost optimization mechanism features lower spreads and an instant rebate system, allowing high-frequency traders to save significant costs [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Short-term strategies focus on opportunities arising from the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, with bullish signals identified when silver prices exceed $34.5 per ounce [6][7] - Long-term strategies recommend increasing silver allocation in core asset portfolios to 10%-15%, leveraging the platform's dynamic leverage adjustments and rapid withdrawal features to manage extreme market conditions [6][7] - The strategic opportunity in the silver market is characterized by industrial demand and financial recovery, positioning the company as a reliable partner for investors navigating market cycles [6][7]
白银走势分析:工业需求与金融属性共振下的投资机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 14:48
Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a structural rally driven by industrial demand and financial attribute recovery, with spot silver prices surpassing $36 and reaching a 13-year high [1][3]. Market Driving Logic: Dual Dynamics of Supply-Demand Gap and Policy Window - Industrial demand is reconstructing the price system, with silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector expected to grow significantly, leading to a projected supply-demand gap of 149 million ounces by 2025 [3][4]. - The financial attributes of silver are recovering, with a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is expected to provide upward momentum for silver prices [4]. Trading Strategy: Risk Control and Tool Selection in a Volatile Market - A combination of trend tracking and range trading is recommended, with specific signals identified for bullish trends when silver prices break certain resistance levels [5]. - A multi-dimensional risk control system is in place to manage extreme market conditions, ensuring efficient order execution and minimal slippage [6]. Platform Selection: Differentiated Advantages of Compliance Ecosystem and Technological Innovation - The trading platform offers a rapid trading experience with execution speeds as low as 0.01 seconds, enhancing user efficiency during volatile market conditions [9]. - Cost structure optimization is achieved through a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, significantly reducing trading costs for high-frequency traders [10]. - Full-chain compliance guarantees are established, ensuring traceability and independent fund storage, which mitigates the risk of fraudulent transactions [11]. Outlook for the Second Half of the Year: Capitalizing on Dual Dividends of Supply-Demand Gap and Policy Shift - The period around the Federal Reserve's September meeting is identified as a critical window for potential investment in silver, with recommendations to build positions if the gold-silver ratio falls below 80:1 [12]. - Long-term strategies suggest increasing silver allocation in core asset portfolios to 10%-15%, aligning with global central bank trends [12].
价格狂飙!近13年来最高,涨幅超金价!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 08:51
Group 1 - Silver prices have reached a nearly 13-year high, with London spot silver surpassing $36 per ounce on June 6, marking the highest level since February 2012, and a weekly increase of over 10% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures contract also saw a significant rise, exceeding 8800 yuan per kilogram, setting a new record since its listing [1] - In contrast, the spot gold price saw a modest increase of approximately 0.6% over the past week [1] Group 2 - The appeal of precious metals, including silver, as traditional safe-haven assets has increased due to escalating trade tensions, rising dollar outflows, and heightened economic uncertainty [4] - Industrial demand for silver is a crucial factor driving its price increase, with applications in electronics, photovoltaic industries, and new energy vehicles [7] - In 2023, China's industrial silver demand reached 8124 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 44%, making it the largest industrial silver consumer globally [7] Group 3 - The supply of silver from mining is limited, leading to a tight market balance as industrial demand continues to grow [8] - The market perceives silver to be significantly undervalued relative to gold, with expectations for the gold-silver ratio to revert, contributing to silver's price recovery [8]