来源：看懂经济 12月24日，伦敦现货黄金站上4500美元/盎司，国际白银、铂金年内涨幅也超过140%。 全球正经历一场罕见的贵金属超级周期——驱动它的，不再是简单的避险情绪，而是对美元信用的重 估，以及AI、氢能等新工业革命的真实需求。 但同一时间段，银行却在做看似"降温"的动作： 工行、建行、中信银行等陆续公告，批量清理长期无库存、无持仓、无欠款的个人贵金属账户。 银行为何在在市场最热的时候"赶客"？ 这并非退缩，而是一场冷静的战略调整——银行不再需要"更多账户"，而是需要"更对的客户"。 这不是服务的终点，而是高质量服务的起点，拼的是质量、风控与长期信任。 在这场质量竞赛中，谁才是真正的"贵金属业务之王"？ 从资产规模看，截至2025年三季度，工商银行以3854.3亿元贵金属资产稳居第一，中国银行、建设银 行、农业银行与浦发银行紧随其后，均突破千亿。 头部格局已清晰浮现，但真正的王者，不仅要规模领先，更要在趋势中稳健前行。 高增长背后的质量竞赛 2025年，中国银行业贵金属业务迎来爆发式增长。 随着黄金、白银等价格持续走强，多家银行贵金属相关资产规模大幅攀升。 根据企业预警通数据，截至2025年三季度末 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged dramatically, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3600 and spot gold nearing $3550, marking a historic high. Predictions suggest gold could reach $4000 next year, driven by factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and global economic uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with market expectations for a 90% probability of a rate cut in September and potentially two cuts by the end of the year. Historical data indicates that gold prices typically rise significantly following the initiation of a rate cut cycle [5]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a two-month low, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - A record 95% of central banks anticipate increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage in history. China's central bank has also been increasing its gold holdings for nine consecutive months, with global central bank gold holdings surpassing U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996 [6]. - Central banks are using gold as a strategy to counteract the vulnerabilities of the U.S. dollar system, especially as U.S. debt exceeds $38 trillion [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, including tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, have heightened global risk levels, activating gold's safe-haven demand [8]. - Analysts warn that each escalation in geopolitical conflict serves as a catalyst for rising gold prices [8]. Group 4: Silver's Role - Silver has also experienced significant price increases, with spot silver surpassing $40 per ounce, marking a 40% rise this year. The industrial demand for silver, particularly in solar and renewable energy sectors, is contributing to a "super cycle" for precious metals [8]. - The combined investment demand for gold and the industrial demand for silver are creating a synergistic effect, further driving up prices [8]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have broken through the critical resistance level of $3500, indicating a "super bull market" pattern. Historical trends suggest that after surpassing previous highs, gold prices often enter a doubling phase [9]. - This current gold price surge is uniquely driven by a combination of monetary credit crises, geopolitical tensions, and increased industrial demand for silver, forming a "golden super bull market" [9].