Market Overview - The market remains overshadowed by trade tensions and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to mixed movements in U.S. stock futures and declines in European and Asian markets [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.1%, while the Dow futures increased by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight decline of 0.01% [2][7] - The dollar strengthened, while U.S. Treasury yields remained stable at 3.96% [7] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling to below $4070 per ounce, marking a decline of 6.3%, the largest intraday drop in over a decade [1][3][7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to technical selling, as the market had been in an overbought condition since early September [1][3] - Despite the recent volatility, gold prices have increased nearly 60% year-to-date, supported by market risk aversion and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] Corporate Earnings and Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is influenced by improving corporate earnings, although uncertainties regarding trade prospects and the government shutdown persist [2] - Tesla's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, as it will kick off the earnings season for major tech companies, with investors keen on updates regarding federal electric vehicle tax credits and autonomous taxi launches [2] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to affect market stability, with preparations for a peace summit between Hungary and Russia still in progress, despite the cancellation of a recent U.S.-Russia meeting [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of precious metals fluctuates strongly in the short - term, with the increase narrowing. The US ADP employment data in June was significantly lower than expected, but its impact on the market is limited. The focus is on the non - farm payroll data. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, and the uncertainty of the trade outlook supports gold. In the short - term, silver is expected to follow the price of gold. In the second half of the year, gold is bullish, and silver is cautiously bullish [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, with an expected increase of 95,000. After the data release, the probability of a July interest rate cut by the Fed rose from about 20% to 27.4%. Traders increased bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2] - Trump said he would not extend the July 9 trade negotiation deadline, doubted the possibility of reaching an agreement with Japan, and threatened to impose up to 30% - 35% tariffs on Japanese goods [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bensen confirmed that the Fed will cut interest rates by September at the latest, repeatedly called for rate cuts, and discussed possible candidates for Powell's successor [2] - Trump said Vietnam will pay 20% tariffs on exports to the US and 40% transit tariffs [2] Price Logic - The price of precious metals fluctuates strongly, and the increase narrows. The ADP employment data has limited impact, and the focus is on the non - farm payroll data. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and trade uncertainty supports gold. This week, focus on non - farm payroll data and tariff progress. If they do not deteriorate significantly, gold may fluctuate within a range this month; if they deteriorate, the gold price is expected to rise. Silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short - term [3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [7]

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are rising, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Ongoing uncertainty in trade prospects is contributing to market volatility [1] - Traders are analyzing whether to adopt a "one-sided" or "volatile" trading strategy in response to current market conditions [1] Industry Analysis - The gold market is experiencing heightened interest due to external geopolitical factors [1] - Trade uncertainties are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - The current trading environment is prompting discussions among traders regarding strategy adjustments [1]