当前地缘局势仍存不确定性，金价区间震荡。尽管美方已取消近期的"特普会"，但匈牙利总理欧尔班周三表示，与俄总统普京在布达佩斯举行和 平峰会的准备工作仍在继续，但日期未定。欧尔班称外长Szijjarto正在华盛顿推进筹备。 10月22日，市场仍被贸易局势、美政府关门等阴霾笼罩。美股期指涨跌互现，欧股主要指数低开，亚股因科技股下跌多数回落。美元上涨，美债 基本持平，金银价格震荡，加密货币普遍下跌。 在上一交易日因获利了结、技术性回调，以及地缘政治危机缓解，金银价格双双大跌。现货黄金价格一度暴跌6.3%，创下十多年来最大盘中跌 幅，目前现货黄金大幅震荡。渣打银行大宗商品研究主管Suki Cooper表示，技术性抛售是主要原因，自9月初以来金价一直处于超买区域。同 时，该行预计明年金价将重拾上涨势头。 美股期指涨跌互现 ，标普500期指涨近0.1%，道指期指涨0.04%，纳斯达克100期指微跌0.01%。 本周，企业财报改善市场情绪，而贸易前景的不确定性及美国政府关门带来的担忧情绪仍未完全消除。特朗普为贸易谈判注入新的不确定性。同 时，本次美国政府关门即将成为史上第二长政府关门，这导致官方数据发布推迟，包括政府原定于周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of precious metals fluctuates strongly in the short - term, with the increase narrowing. The US ADP employment data in June was significantly lower than expected, but its impact on the market is limited. The focus is on the non - farm payroll data. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, and the uncertainty of the trade outlook supports gold. In the short - term, silver is expected to follow the price of gold. In the second half of the year, gold is bullish, and silver is cautiously bullish [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, with an expected increase of 95,000. After the data release, the probability of a July interest rate cut by the Fed rose from about 20% to 27.4%. Traders increased bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2] - Trump said he would not extend the July 9 trade negotiation deadline, doubted the possibility of reaching an agreement with Japan, and threatened to impose up to 30% - 35% tariffs on Japanese goods [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bensen confirmed that the Fed will cut interest rates by September at the latest, repeatedly called for rate cuts, and discussed possible candidates for Powell's successor [2] - Trump said Vietnam will pay 20% tariffs on exports to the US and 40% transit tariffs [2] Price Logic - The price of precious metals fluctuates strongly, and the increase narrows. The ADP employment data has limited impact, and the focus is on the non - farm payroll data. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and trade uncertainty supports gold. This week, focus on non - farm payroll data and tariff progress. If they do not deteriorate significantly, gold may fluctuate within a range this month; if they deteriorate, the gold price is expected to rise. Silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short - term [3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [7]

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are rising, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Ongoing uncertainty in trade prospects is contributing to market volatility [1] - Traders are analyzing whether to adopt a "one-sided" or "volatile" trading strategy in response to current market conditions [1] Industry Analysis - The gold market is experiencing heightened interest due to external geopolitical factors [1] - Trade uncertainties are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - The current trading environment is prompting discussions among traders regarding strategy adjustments [1]