Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of precious metals fluctuates strongly in the short - term, with the increase narrowing. The US ADP employment data in June was significantly lower than expected, but its impact on the market is limited. The focus is on the non - farm payroll data. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, and the uncertainty of the trade outlook supports gold. In the short - term, silver is expected to follow the price of gold. In the second half of the year, gold is bullish, and silver is cautiously bullish [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, with an expected increase of 95,000. After the data release, the probability of a July interest rate cut by the Fed rose from about 20% to 27.4%. Traders increased bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2] - Trump said he would not extend the July 9 trade negotiation deadline, doubted the possibility of reaching an agreement with Japan, and threatened to impose up to 30% - 35% tariffs on Japanese goods [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bensen confirmed that the Fed will cut interest rates by September at the latest, repeatedly called for rate cuts, and discussed possible candidates for Powell's successor [2] - Trump said Vietnam will pay 20% tariffs on exports to the US and 40% transit tariffs [2] Price Logic - The price of precious metals fluctuates strongly, and the increase narrows. The ADP employment data has limited impact, and the focus is on the non - farm payroll data. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and trade uncertainty supports gold. This week, focus on non - farm payroll data and tariff progress. If they do not deteriorate significantly, gold may fluctuate within a range this month; if they deteriorate, the gold price is expected to rise. Silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short - term [3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [7]

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are rising, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Ongoing uncertainty in trade prospects is contributing to market volatility [1] - Traders are analyzing whether to adopt a "one-sided" or "volatile" trading strategy in response to current market conditions [1] Industry Analysis - The gold market is experiencing heightened interest due to external geopolitical factors [1] - Trade uncertainties are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - The current trading environment is prompting discussions among traders regarding strategy adjustments [1]