Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Positive outlook for single - side price, long PX short SC, long PX short PTA to continue holding, month - spread positive set [5][6] - PTA: Single - side slightly bullish in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit, month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - MEG: Single - side stable in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX: Supply continues to shrink, maintaining a tight - balance de - stocking pattern in July. Asian operating rate will decline further. PTA demand is stable with a slight increase. Single - side price is expected to be strong and month - spread is mainly positive set [5] - PTA: Cost is supported, but month - spread is under pressure. Supply - demand will shift from rapid de - stocking to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis should be reverse - set at high [5][6] - MEG: Supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but imports are increasing. Polyester plants have many production - cut plans. Cost support has recovered, and shorting is not recommended [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Closing Prices and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 6752, 4778, 4271, 6526, and 3600 respectively, with daily changes of 0.4%, 0.2%, - 0.5%, - 0.4%, and - 2.5% [2] - **Month - spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 had month - spreads of 206, 172, - 43, 92, and - 421 respectively, with daily changes of 8, - 2, - 9, - 20, and 168 [2] - **Inter - variety Spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 had spreads of 389, 507, - 1624, 939, and 1178 respectively, with daily changes of - 12, 30, 64, - 50, and 31 [2] - **Basis and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread were 281, 270, 65, 124, and 283 respectively, with daily changes of - 30, 15, - 7, 36, and no change [2] - **Warehouse Receipts and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 35022, 5847, 5464, 0, and 5911000 respectively, with daily changes of - 930, - 100, no change, - 1805, and no change [2] 2. Market Overview - **PX**: A 350,000 - ton PX device in a Japanese factory has unexpectedly shut down for maintenance, expected to last about a month. A domestic mainstream supplier's July PX contract advance payment is 7250 yuan/ton (acceptance), and PTA is 5300 yuan/ton [4] - **PTA**: A 200,000 - ton IPA device in East China has restarted after a shutdown on June 9 [4] - **MEG**: On June 27, the spot and futures prices of MEG are provided, along with the monthly settlement reference price and average price [4] - **Polyester**: On June 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 30% - 40% [4] 3. Market Views - **PX**: Supply contraction, tight - balance de - stocking in July. Asian operating rate to decline. PTA demand stable with a slight increase. Single - side price expected to be strong, month - spread positive set [5] - **PTA**: Cost supported, but month - spread under pressure. Supply - demand to shift to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - **MEG**: Supply decreased due to maintenance, imports increasing. Polyester production - cut plans. Cost support recovered, shorting not recommended [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is influenced by the US soybean oil, showing a strong trend, but pressure from South America remains. The domestic soybean meal demand is good, and inventory accumulation is expected. For sugar, the global supply increase expectation drags down the raw sugar price, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. The short - term trend of oils and fats is affected by geopolitical conflicts and may run strong, but there is a risk of high - level correction. The corn market has a tight domestic supply, and the futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The pig market still faces pressure due to relatively high inventory. The peanut market may decline due to the expected increase in planting area. The egg market may have a weak spot price in the short - term, and the far - month contracts may rise under certain conditions. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger and stable futures price in June. The cotton market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term [3][11][19][27][31][35][44][48][56] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.26% to 1074 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.44% to 294.3 US dollars/short ton [2] - **Related Information**: As of June 15, EU 2024/25 soybean imports reached 13.58 million tons, up from 12.65 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 6.91 million tons, up from 5.45 million tons last year. As of June 12, US soybean export inspections were only 216,000 tons. From June 9 - 13, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso was 515.08 reais/ton. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory was 5.996 million tons, down 1.75% from last week and up 8.59% year - on - year; soybean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, up 7.19% from last week and down 58.79% year - on - year [2] - **Logic Analysis**: The US soybean market is strong, but South American pressure remains. Domestic demand for soybean meal is good, and inventory accumulation is expected [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, wait and buy at low points; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [6] Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.49 (2.89%) to 16.45 cents/lb [7] - **Important Information**: In the next 30 days, most sugarcane areas in Guangxi will have more precipitation, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. Brazilian hydrous ethanol prices are at an 8 - month low, and the average national alcohol - to - gasoline ratio is 67.7%. In May, Brazilian ethanol sales reached 2.99 billion liters. In the second half of May, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 47.843 million tons of sugarcane, up 5.47% year - on - year; sugar production was 2.951 million tons, up 8.86% year - on - year; ethanol production was down 3.12%. From April 2025 to June 1, the central - southern region cumulatively crushed 124.768 million tons of sugarcane, down 11.85% year - on - year; sugar production was 6.954 million tons, down 11.64% year - on - year; ethanol production was 5.74 billion liters, down 11.36% year - on - year. In the first two weeks of June, Brazil exported 1.53 million tons of sugar and molasses, down 12.8% year - on - year [8][9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: The raw sugar price is dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Passively follow the raw sugar price, expect short - term weakness, and sell high. For arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14] Oils and Fats - **External Market**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.89% to 54.69 cents/lb; the BMD palm oil main price rose 0.74% to 4096 ringgit/ton [16] - **Related Information**: Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in June to reach 14.37 million tons. French 2025 winter rapeseed production is expected to reach 4.2 million tons, up 9.4% year - on - year. As of June 15, EU 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.74 million tons, down from 3.36 million tons last year; soybean imports were 13.58 million tons, up from 12.65 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 6.91 million tons, up from 5.45 million tons last year. On June 17, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 17,560 tons, down 55% from the previous trading day [17][18] - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the market. India's reduction of the crude palm oil tax may increase purchases. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the supply of rapeseed oil is in excess, but the bottom support is strong [19] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of high - level corrections. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: The CBOT corn futures main contract rose 0.5% to 438.5 cents/bu [24] - **Important Information**: On the 17th, DDGS prices rose slightly. The wheat market price is rising, and the corn price is also rising, increasing the wheat's feed substitution advantage. As of June 12, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.135 million tons, up 119,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, unchanged from last week; the imported sorghum was 433,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from last week; the imported barley was 333,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from last week. On June 16, the purchase price in the northern port was stable, and the corn price in the North China production area continued to rise [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn sowing is accelerating, and the domestic supply is tight. The 07 corn futures fluctuate at a high level, and the basis narrows. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures will fluctuate at a high level [27] - **Trading Strategy**: For the external market, the 07 corn fluctuates at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 corn. For arbitrage, operate the corn - starch spread, buy 09 starch and short 09 corn when the spread is low. Hold long corn and short 07 or 09 corn. For options, those with spot can consider selling high carefully [28][29] Pig - **Related Information**: The pig price is oscillating downward. As of June 17, the national 7 - kg piglet price was 443 yuan/head, down 12 yuan/head from June 13; the 15 - kg piglet price was 542 yuan/head, down 12 yuan/head from June 13; the 50 - kg sow price was 1619 yuan/head, unchanged from June 13. On June 17, the national average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.7% [31] - **Logic Analysis**: The market supply pressure is alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the upward space of futures is limited [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short operation. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [32] Peanut - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is different, and the peanut oil price is strong, but there is room for negotiation. Peanut meal sales are weak. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 139,340 tons, down 5280 tons from last week; as of June 13, the peanut oil inventory was 39,930 tons, down 170 tons from last week [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot trading is light. The expected increase in new - season planting area may lead to a price decline [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Short 10 - month peanuts at high prices. For arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][37][38] Egg - **Important Information**: The main egg - producing area price rose 0.04 yuan/jin, and the main sales area price fell 0.1 yuan/jin. In May, the national laying hen inventory was 1.334 billion, up 0.11 billion from last month and 7.2% year - on - year. In May, the egg chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, down 4% month - on - month and up 1% year - on - year. In the week of June 13, the national main - producing area laying hen culling volume was 20.52 million, up 2.8% from the previous week. As of June 12, the average culling age was 512 days, down 3 days from the previous week. As of June 12, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 8194 tons, down 7.4% from last week. As of June 13, the average inventory in the production link was 1.03 days, up 0.09 days from last week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, up 0.02 days from the previous week. As of June 12, the average weekly egg profit was - 0.47 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week; on June 13, the expected laying hen breeding profit was 15.5 yuan/feather, down 1.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [41][42][43] - **Trading Logic**: The egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price may be weak. The far - month contracts may rise if the culling volume increases [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month far - month contracts in mid - to - late June. Short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts. For options, wait and see [44] Apple - **Important Information**: As of June 11, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.2746 million tons, down 107,400 tons from last week. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March was 255,600 tons, up 9.5% year - on - year; the import volume was 13,300 tons, up 123.9% year - on - year. The apple price is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [46] - **Trading Logic**: The low inventory may support the price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - month futures price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in June [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [49][50][51] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.15 (0.22%) to 68.05 cents/lb [52] - **Important Information**: As of June 14, the Brazilian cotton harvesting progress was 2.8%, up 1.4 percentage points from last week. As of June 15, the US cotton planting rate was 85%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the budding rate was 19%, 2 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 3%, the same as last year; the good - quality rate was 48%, 6 percentage points lower than last year. The cotton spot trading is generally cold, and the sales basis is firm [53][54][55] - **Trading Logic**: The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to decline [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [57][58]

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are rising, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Ongoing uncertainty in trade prospects is contributing to market volatility [1] - Traders are analyzing whether to adopt a "one-sided" or "volatile" trading strategy in response to current market conditions [1] Industry Analysis - The gold market is experiencing heightened interest due to external geopolitical factors [1] - Trade uncertainties are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - The current trading environment is prompting discussions among traders regarding strategy adjustments [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market has certain support with low inventory. The fundamentals of asphalt are performing well. Supply growth is limited as some refineries stop producing asphalt or switch to producing residual oil, and the overall operating rate may decline again. On the demand side, it is gradually improving seasonally, although rainfall restricts project construction in some areas and limits the growth rate. The inventory accumulation rate is lower than the seasonal average, and the downstream has a good acceptance of low prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 22, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3,539 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 187,690 lots, a net increase of 14,254 lots, and the trading volume was 233,597 lots, a net increase of 44,922 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,700 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,450 - 3,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,400 - 3,430 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,500 - 3,590 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in North China rose slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the BU2507 - 2509 spread at low levels (positive spread trading). - Inter - commodity spread: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand. The current inventory is at a low level, and the recent inventory accumulation rate is lower than the seasonal average, resulting in limited short - term market pressure. However, with the improvement of some refineries' profits, the asphalt plant operating rate and production have marginally increased. Meanwhile, rainfall in South China in late May will affect the improvement of terminal demand, so there is also certain resistance above the asphalt market, and the industry's acceptance of high - priced resources is still limited [1]. - The strategy for asphalt investment is as follows: the unilateral trend is expected to be volatile; for the inter - period strategy, the previous long position of BU2506 - 2509 (positive spread position) can be taken profit at high prices; there are no strategies for cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 19, the closing price of the main BU2506 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,502 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 73,925 lots, down 1,051 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 140,886 lots, up 21,991 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,700 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,450 - 3,600 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,400 - 3,430 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,500 - 3,570 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Shandong decreased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile [2]. - Inter - period: Take profit on the previous long position of BU2506 - 2509 (positive spread position) at high prices [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].