Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Positive outlook for single - side price, long PX short SC, long PX short PTA to continue holding, month - spread positive set [5][6] - PTA: Single - side slightly bullish in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit, month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - MEG: Single - side stable in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX: Supply continues to shrink, maintaining a tight - balance de - stocking pattern in July. Asian operating rate will decline further. PTA demand is stable with a slight increase. Single - side price is expected to be strong and month - spread is mainly positive set [5] - PTA: Cost is supported, but month - spread is under pressure. Supply - demand will shift from rapid de - stocking to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis should be reverse - set at high [5][6] - MEG: Supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but imports are increasing. Polyester plants have many production - cut plans. Cost support has recovered, and shorting is not recommended [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Closing Prices and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 6752, 4778, 4271, 6526, and 3600 respectively, with daily changes of 0.4%, 0.2%, - 0.5%, - 0.4%, and - 2.5% [2] - **Month - spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 had month - spreads of 206, 172, - 43, 92, and - 421 respectively, with daily changes of 8, - 2, - 9, - 20, and 168 [2] - **Inter - variety Spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 had spreads of 389, 507, - 1624, 939, and 1178 respectively, with daily changes of - 12, 30, 64, - 50, and 31 [2] - **Basis and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread were 281, 270, 65, 124, and 283 respectively, with daily changes of - 30, 15, - 7, 36, and no change [2] - **Warehouse Receipts and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 35022, 5847, 5464, 0, and 5911000 respectively, with daily changes of - 930, - 100, no change, - 1805, and no change [2] 2. Market Overview - **PX**: A 350,000 - ton PX device in a Japanese factory has unexpectedly shut down for maintenance, expected to last about a month. A domestic mainstream supplier's July PX contract advance payment is 7250 yuan/ton (acceptance), and PTA is 5300 yuan/ton [4] - **PTA**: A 200,000 - ton IPA device in East China has restarted after a shutdown on June 9 [4] - **MEG**: On June 27, the spot and futures prices of MEG are provided, along with the monthly settlement reference price and average price [4] - **Polyester**: On June 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 30% - 40% [4] 3. Market Views - **PX**: Supply contraction, tight - balance de - stocking in July. Asian operating rate to decline. PTA demand stable with a slight increase. Single - side price expected to be strong, month - spread positive set [5] - **PTA**: Cost supported, but month - spread under pressure. Supply - demand to shift to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - **MEG**: Supply decreased due to maintenance, imports increasing. Polyester production - cut plans. Cost support recovered, shorting not recommended [6]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 18 日 公众号二维码 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号： F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号 F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 0.26%至 1074 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.44%至 294.3 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.欧盟委员会：截至 6 月 15 日，欧盟 2024/25 年度大豆进口量为 1358 万吨，而 去年为 1265 万吨。油菜籽进口量为 691 万吨，而去年为 545 万吨； 2.油世界：截止 6 月 12 日当周，美豆出口检验量依然只有 21.6 万吨，没有对于 中国的装运，对于欧盟的装运也只有 5.8 万吨，对于日本的装 ...

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are rising, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Ongoing uncertainty in trade prospects is contributing to market volatility [1] - Traders are analyzing whether to adopt a "one-sided" or "volatile" trading strategy in response to current market conditions [1] Industry Analysis - The gold market is experiencing heightened interest due to external geopolitical factors [1] - Trade uncertainties are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - The current trading environment is prompting discussions among traders regarding strategy adjustments [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market has certain support with low inventory. The fundamentals of asphalt are performing well. Supply growth is limited as some refineries stop producing asphalt or switch to producing residual oil, and the overall operating rate may decline again. On the demand side, it is gradually improving seasonally, although rainfall restricts project construction in some areas and limits the growth rate. The inventory accumulation rate is lower than the seasonal average, and the downstream has a good acceptance of low prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 22, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3,539 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 187,690 lots, a net increase of 14,254 lots, and the trading volume was 233,597 lots, a net increase of 44,922 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,700 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,450 - 3,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,400 - 3,430 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,500 - 3,590 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in North China rose slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the BU2507 - 2509 spread at low levels (positive spread trading). - Inter - commodity spread: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand. The current inventory is at a low level, and the recent inventory accumulation rate is lower than the seasonal average, resulting in limited short - term market pressure. However, with the improvement of some refineries' profits, the asphalt plant operating rate and production have marginally increased. Meanwhile, rainfall in South China in late May will affect the improvement of terminal demand, so there is also certain resistance above the asphalt market, and the industry's acceptance of high - priced resources is still limited [1]. - The strategy for asphalt investment is as follows: the unilateral trend is expected to be volatile; for the inter - period strategy, the previous long position of BU2506 - 2509 (positive spread position) can be taken profit at high prices; there are no strategies for cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 19, the closing price of the main BU2506 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,502 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 73,925 lots, down 1,051 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 140,886 lots, up 21,991 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,700 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,450 - 3,600 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,400 - 3,430 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,500 - 3,570 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Shandong decreased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile [2]. - Inter - period: Take profit on the previous long position of BU2506 - 2509 (positive spread position) at high prices [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].