美国6月PPI环比基本持平，主要受服务成本下滑抑制，表明企业正在吸收至少部分来自进口关税上升的 成本。PPI报告紧随6月CPI数据之后，后者显示更高的关税正逐步传导至包括家居用品、家电和休闲用 品在内的多个类别。尽管今年以来通胀总体温和，但许多经济学家预计，随着更多企业试图抵消更高的 贸易成本，通胀将逐步升温。 ...

Core Insights - The June PPI data in the U.S. unexpectedly fell short of expectations, primarily due to a decline in service prices, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the costs associated with increased import tariffs [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month, and the core PPI also showed no change, both below market forecasts [1] - The impact of tariff increases has permeated various categories, including home goods, appliances, and leisure products, as indicated by the recently released CPI data [1] - Despite moderate inflation so far this year, many economists anticipate that inflation will gradually rise as more companies attempt to offset the increasing trade costs [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration has significantly increased global trade costs, leading to a substantial adjustment in commodity prices. However, domestic demand resilience is expected to offset external risks and support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the domestic manufacturing PMI for March remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, indicating strong internal demand that may cushion the impact of external pressures [2]. - Supply constraints in copper due to protests blocking access to key mining operations have exacerbated supply tightness, while domestic copper cable manufacturers have seen an increase in operating rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes significant price declines for industrial metals, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changing by -6.37%, -11.18%, -6.37%, -5.49%, -10.73%, and -2.48% respectively [1][12]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index reported a decrease of 2.26 USD/ton, reflecting ongoing supply tightness due to protests affecting key mining routes [2][39]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Western Mining based on their performance and market conditions [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, while lithium prices have seen a decline amid stable downstream demand [3][84]. - Nickel prices are projected to continue rising due to tight supply conditions, despite some fluctuations in demand from the stainless steel sector [3][56]. Precious Metals - The report expresses optimism for precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has seen a rise due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [4][67]. - Silver prices are under pressure in the short term but are expected to rebound once economic conditions stabilize [4][67]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with EPS estimates for 2024E to 2026E showing growth for companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt, with PE ratios indicating favorable valuations [5][6].