Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated, the effective shipping capacity has rapidly shrunk, Trump's tariff war has resurfaced, and the cancellation of photovoltaic tax refunds in April has forced shipments and stockpiling in March. These factors support the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line). In the short term, the supply - demand pattern has shifted from slack in the off - season to tight balance, strengthening the shipping companies' bargaining power [1]. - If the US - Iran situation further deteriorates and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the freight rate index is expected to continue rising. In the medium term, if the blockade is lifted, oil prices will fall, shipping capacity will recover, and freight rates will gradually return to the off - season fundamentals, with the increase being reversed. However, affected by panic and避险情绪, the freight rate is expected to be higher than the pre - blockade level. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track shipping company quotes and cargo volume data, as well as the persistence of the US - Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - EC main contract closing price is 1644.800, up 250.9; EC second - main contract closing price is 2181.7, up 332.8 [1]. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread is - 536.90, down 81.00; EC2604 - EC2608 spread is - 632.80, down 81.60 [1]. - EC contract basis is - 181.40, down 325.71 [1]. - EC main contract open interest is 44074, down 2169 [1]. Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 1463.40, down 110.11, a 7.0% week - on - week decline; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1045.08, down 66.93 [1]. - SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1251.46, down 81.65; container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) is 1227.97, down 0.11 [1]. - CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1088.14, up 43.57; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1508.26, up 43.97 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2140.00, up 47.00; Panama Freight Index (daily) is 1942.00, up 37.00 [1]. - Average charter price of Panama - type ships is 0.00, unchanged; average charter price of Cape - type ships is 28568.00, up 1354.00 [1]. Industry News - Trump said a nuclear - armed Iran is unacceptable to the US, and the US will continue large - scale military operations in Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks. He may lift sanctions if Iran's next leader is pragmatic. Iran's top security official said they won't negotiate with the US [1]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisor said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and Iran will attack ships passing through. Goldman Sachs estimates that European natural gas may rise 130% and oil prices may rise $18 per barrel, equivalent to a 6 - week Strait of Hormuz blockade. JPMorgan analysts said if the strait is fully closed due to Middle - East conflicts, Middle - East oil - producing countries can only continue production for "at most 25 days" [1]. - After the US Supreme Court overturned most of Trump's tariffs, the federal appellate court rejected the government's request to postpone the subsequent steps of the tariff refund dispute. More than $175 billion in illegally imposed tariffs will enter the refund process [1]. Market Impact - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) continued to hit the daily limit on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions have increased shipping operating costs. MSC has raised the price of large containers to $3200 in the second half of the month, a $200 increase from the first half. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led shipping companies to immediately raise prices on Middle - East routes by $1000 - $1500, which may quickly be reflected in spot quotes [1]. - Trump has imposed a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods to the US for 150 days starting from February 24, and later said he would raise it to 15%, increasing trade costs [1]. - The ECB has maintained interest rates unchanged. With inflation stabilizing and economic data improving, the market expects the ECB to continue its wait - and - see stance [1].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European route) futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 1285.6 points, reflecting a drop of 4.24% [1] Group 1: Market Developments - On February 3, shipping companies Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk announced adjustments to their shared shipping route, which was supposed to resume operations through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, but the "Maersk Detroit" vessel diverted to navigate around the Cape of Good Hope instead [2] - The SCFIS European route index was reported at 1573.51 points, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.10%, with a cumulative drop of 5.09% during the Spring Festival period [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, the market is experiencing strong expectations leading to increased trading volumes, with the IEEPA tariffs being ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, and the U.S. Customs announcing a new 10% tariff rate [4] - The shipping market may see a surge in export volumes on the Asia-America route due to the tariff gap, alongside optimistic expectations for post-holiday exports of solar products [4] - Guangzhou Futures reported a 3.0% decline in the SCFI European route index, with shipping companies slightly raising prices for March, but geopolitical tensions may cause market fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The June PPI in the U.S. remained largely flat month-on-month, primarily due to a decline in service costs, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the increased costs from rising import tariffs [1] Group 1: PPI and CPI Data - The PPI report follows the June CPI data, which shows that higher tariffs are gradually being passed on to various categories, including home goods, appliances, and leisure products [1] - Despite a generally mild inflation rate this year, many economists expect inflation to gradually rise as more companies attempt to offset higher trade costs [1]

Core Insights - The June PPI data in the U.S. unexpectedly fell short of expectations, primarily due to a decline in service prices, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the costs associated with increased import tariffs [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month, and the core PPI also showed no change, both below market forecasts [1] - The impact of tariff increases has permeated various categories, including home goods, appliances, and leisure products, as indicated by the recently released CPI data [1] - Despite moderate inflation so far this year, many economists anticipate that inflation will gradually rise as more companies attempt to offset the increasing trade costs [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration has significantly increased global trade costs, leading to a substantial adjustment in commodity prices. However, domestic demand resilience is expected to offset external risks and support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the domestic manufacturing PMI for March remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, indicating strong internal demand that may cushion the impact of external pressures [2]. - Supply constraints in copper due to protests blocking access to key mining operations have exacerbated supply tightness, while domestic copper cable manufacturers have seen an increase in operating rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes significant price declines for industrial metals, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changing by -6.37%, -11.18%, -6.37%, -5.49%, -10.73%, and -2.48% respectively [1][12]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index reported a decrease of 2.26 USD/ton, reflecting ongoing supply tightness due to protests affecting key mining routes [2][39]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Western Mining based on their performance and market conditions [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, while lithium prices have seen a decline amid stable downstream demand [3][84]. - Nickel prices are projected to continue rising due to tight supply conditions, despite some fluctuations in demand from the stainless steel sector [3][56]. Precious Metals - The report expresses optimism for precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has seen a rise due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [4][67]. - Silver prices are under pressure in the short term but are expected to rebound once economic conditions stabilize [4][67]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with EPS estimates for 2024E to 2026E showing growth for companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt, with PE ratios indicating favorable valuations [5][6].