Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroeconomic factors, such as Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Canada and the US increasing tariffs on South Korea, have intensified trade tensions. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar has stopped falling and rebounded, reaching around 2 million tons, while the apparent demand has declined, and inventory has shifted from decreasing to increasing. Overall, during the off - season, rebar demand continues to shrink, more long - position holders among the mainstream positions are closing their positions, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, with the red bars turning green. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,126 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2] - RB main contract open interest: 1,714,659 lots, down 16,197 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net open interest: - 58,403 lots, up 7,245 lots [2] - RB5 - 10 contract spread: - 48 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 38,283 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 163 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,374 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - RB main contract basis: 164 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 798 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan [2] - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke (FOB price): 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 167.6285 million tons, up 2.1204 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 419,400 tons, up 14,600 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.6199 million tons, up 117,900 tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 1.562 million tons, up 68,900 tons [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 78.66%, down 0.16 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.53%, up 0.07 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar output: 1.9955 million tons, up 92,500 tons [2] - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 43.75%, up 2.03 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.4898 million tons, up 63,200 tons [2] - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.0312 million tons, up 77,100 tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 70.83%, down 1.05 percentage points [2] - Domestic crude steel output (monthly): 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons [2] - China rebar monthly output: 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons [2] - Steel net export volume (monthly): 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate prosperity index: 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: - 3.80%, down 1.20 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 17.20%, down 1.30 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: - 2.20%, down 1.10 percentage points [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 659.89 million square meters, down 38.24 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 58.77 million square meters, down 53.13 million square meters [2] - Commercial housing unsold area: 40.236 million square meters, down 8.75 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - Since late January, there has been a fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution process in central and eastern China, and the pollution level has recently increased. As of now, 87 prefecture - level and above cities in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River have launched emergency responses to heavy pollution weather warnings to jointly address this cross - regional heavy pollution process [2] - US President Trump recently stated that if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China, the US will impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a regular press conference on the 26th that China advocates that countries should handle inter - country relations with the concept of win - win rather than zero - sum and in a cooperative rather than confrontational way [2]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold and silver prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching historical highs, with silver narrowing its gains to 2% at approximately $105 per ounce after previously rising by 14% [1] - Gold's gains were reduced to less than 0.8%, trading around $5020 per ounce after peaking at $5110.86 per ounce, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and strong safe-haven buying [1] - The geopolitical climate is further strained by President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Canada and increased tariffs on South Korea, contributing to trade tensions [1] - Crude oil prices are around $60.83 per barrel, with a slight decline as the market assesses the impact of a winter storm on production and ongoing geopolitical risks [1] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with major indices rising for the fourth consecutive trading day, as investors await upcoming earnings reports from tech giants and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Gold Market Insights - The spot gold price rose by 2% to $5077.22 per ounce, with an intraday high of $5110.86, continuing a strong upward trend after a 64% increase in 2025 and nearly 18% year-to-date [3] - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are the core drivers supporting gold prices, alongside ongoing central bank purchases and a 20% year-on-year increase in gold ETF holdings [3] - Société Générale predicts gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by year-end, while Morgan Stanley sets a bullish target of $5700 per ounce [3] - Other precious metals also saw significant increases, with silver surging 10.2% to $113.46 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $117.70, driven by strong retail and momentum investor buying [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged this week is at 97.2%, with a 40.2% chance of rates remaining steady until June [4] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 2.8%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 97.2% [4] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 15.5%, with a 40.2% chance of rates remaining unchanged until June [4] Trade Relations - President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on certain South Korean goods to 25% due to the failure of the South Korean National Assembly to ratify a trade agreement with the U.S. [4]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $109.23, with a recent opening at $103.93 per ounce and a current price of $110.53, reflecting a 6.38% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $111.12, while the lowest was $103.34, indicating a short-term volatile trading pattern [1] Group 2 - Despite the relative strength index (RSI) being in the overbought territory, silver prices continue to rise, although they have not reached extreme levels [2] - If silver prices break through $120 per ounce, it could pave the way for a challenge at the $130 level, with a further target of $150 if the upward trend continues [2] - Initial support for silver is at $100, and if it falls below this level, the next support zone will be around $96.14, potentially leading to a drop towards the $90 area [2]

Group 1 - Copper prices have reached a new historical high in London, driven by easing trade tensions and previous supply disruptions due to tariffs and mining issues [1][2] - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by over 25%, potentially marking the best annual performance since 2017 [2] - Major mining disruptions in Chile, Africa, and Indonesia have significantly impacted global copper supply, while U.S. tariffs have created price distortions between domestic and global markets [2][3] Group 2 - Recent warnings from Teck Resources and Anglo American indicate that copper production at key mines may fall short of expectations next year, leading to the first annual decline in global copper production since the pandemic [3] - Long-term optimism for copper demand in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centers is tempered by short-term concerns over escalating trade tensions [3] - The weak U.S. dollar has made copper and other dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to foreign buyers, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve potentially exerting additional pressure on the dollar [3]

Company Overview - Veritone Inc (NASDAQ:VERI) experienced a significant increase in share price, rising 48.2% to $8.09 in pre-market trading following contract wins and preliminary third-quarter results [1][2]. Contract Wins - The company announced contract wins to deploy its Veritone Data Refinery product with leading hyperscalers and venture-backed model developers [1]. Financial Performance - Veritone reported preliminary, unaudited third-quarter revenue between $28.5 million and $28.7 million, indicating a 30.5% increase at the midpoint compared to the third quarter of 2024 [1].

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing a crisis due to a lack of orders from China, which historically has been their largest customer, raising concerns about the stability of the agricultural sector and the broader U.S. economy [2][4] - The absence of Chinese orders deviates significantly from normal trading patterns, with approximately 8% to 9% of expected soybean sales to China currently at zero [2][4] Group 1: Financial Crisis for Farmers - Soybean prices have dropped by 40% compared to three years ago, while production costs and interest rates have risen, leading to potential losses for farmers [4] - Current soybean futures are around $10.10 per bushel, below the estimated production cost of $11.03 per bushel, resulting in significant financial strain [4] - Farmers are facing limited budget flexibility, with many relying on loans to cover losses, indicating a widespread financial crisis among the 500,000 soybean growers [4][5] Group 2: Economic Impact Beyond Agriculture - Agriculture contributes $9.5 trillion annually to the U.S. economy, accounting for 18.7% of total economic output, and supports over 1 million jobs [5] - The disruption in soybean trade could have a multiplier effect, impacting manufacturing, logistics, and rural communities across the nation [5] Group 3: Trade Tensions Reshaping Global Markets - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have altered global soybean trade dynamics, with U.S. soybeans facing a 20% retaliatory tariff disadvantage compared to South American competitors [6][7] - China has significantly increased its soybean imports from Brazil, with 71% of its total soybean imports in 2024 coming from Brazil, up from previous years [7] Group 4: Urgency for Resolution - The seasonal nature of agriculture creates urgency for resolving trade issues, as farmers may be forced to sell crops at steep discounts if market conditions do not improve before harvest [9] - Despite a recent extension of the tariff ceasefire, progress on specific agricultural concerns remains limited, highlighting the need for immediate action [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump has threatened tariffs and export controls against countries implementing digital taxes, potentially escalating trade tensions between the US and the UK, as well as the EU [1] - Trump's comments specifically target the UK's digital services tax and the EU's Digital Services Act, which he claims are designed to harm American tech companies [1] - Despite a recent trade agreement between the US and the EU, Trump's threats could put additional pressure on their trade relations [1] Group 2 - The UK currently imposes a 2% digital services tax on companies with global revenues exceeding £500 million, affecting major tech firms like Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon [2] - US officials have repeatedly criticized the UK's digital services tax, which remains in place despite the trade agreement reached with the US [2] - The EU's Digital Services Act requires large tech companies to more actively regulate their platform content, facing criticism from the US during recent trade negotiations [2] Group 3 - Canada has already made concessions by canceling its digital services tax in response to US pressure, which is seen as an effort to ease trade tensions [3] - Canada's decision serves as a precedent for other countries facing similar pressures from the US, highlighting the influence of the Trump administration in protecting American tech interests [3] - As Trump re-engages on the issue of digital taxes, more countries may face the dilemma of balancing their tax policies with the risk of trade disputes [3]