特朗普政府上台后对日本汽车加码关税，起初是27.5%，后来叠加到50%，直接戳中日本经济命脉。 日本高市早苗首相团队赶紧组团去华盛顿谈，承诺多买美国天然气和玉米，还说愿意多掏驻军费。 可美方只给些含糊的"考虑暂停"，日本汽车出口占GDP近两成，对美份额三成，这损失扛不。 结果，中国取消中日韩文化部长会议，重启日本海鲜禁令，还劝公民别去日本旅游。东京大使飞北京求和，但没突破。 谈判一轮轮崩，日本政府内部有人提议动用手里万亿美债当武器，抛售点给美国添堵。 法政大学教授白鸟浩在媒体访谈里直戳痛点，他说日本得学中国那样，面对美国关税威胁时站得稳，别一味退让只会换来更多欺凌。 白鸟浩研究国际博弈多年。他点明，这场关税争端让日本看清，美国的"盟友情"经不起利益考验。 中国在中美关税博弈里的表现，给日本上了一课。美方对华电动车和芯片加高税，中国商务部快速回击，列出对等清单，针对美农产品和飞机部件。 稀土出口管制升级，要求申报用途，美国军工产业吃紧，F-35生产线差点卡壳。中国不慌，通过一带一路拓市场，出口结构优化。 白鸟浩在访谈中赞许，中国用资源优势转化影响力，欧洲国家像德国转向亚洲合作，对华贸易额超对美。 日本看明白这道 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the sweet corn industry in Guangdong, emphasizing a shift from quantity-driven production to a focus on quality and premium pricing in response to market demands [5][10][60]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The sweet corn industry in Guangdong has shifted towards a "quality over quantity" approach, aiming to enhance the "Yue Sweet" brand and improve profitability [10][13]. - The introduction of the "Yue Double 118" variety, which is not yet officially approved, is being promoted for its higher market value, fetching prices that are 0.5 to 0.6 yuan per jin higher than traditional varieties [18][21]. - The industry has developed a regional layout, with specific areas specializing in different corn varieties based on climate, soil, and consumer preferences [21][24]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The article highlights the importance of precise management techniques for high-quality sweet corn, including spatial and temporal isolation to prevent cross-pollination with other corn types [37][41]. - A "three new" technology approach, focusing on new products, techniques, and machinery, is essential for enhancing quality and achieving sustainable development in the industry [44][45]. - Soil testing and tailored fertilization strategies have shown to increase yields by over 10% compared to traditional methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of scientific farming practices [49][50]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The increasing consumer preference for high-quality, visually appealing corn varieties is reshaping the market, with farmers adapting to these demands by adopting advanced agricultural techniques [32][58]. - The article illustrates how modern agricultural practices, such as water-fertilizer integration and green pest control, are becoming standard as farmers recognize the value of quality-driven production [59][60]. - The shift towards premium products is not only about yield increase but also about enhancing the overall value chain of the agricultural industry, positioning it for future competitiveness [64].

转自：北京日报客户端 12月2日，第44届中国鲜食玉米大会开幕，其常驻会址落地北京平谷。作为农业中关村建设的核心承载 区，一片1000余亩的玉米大观园正在平谷峪口镇建设，将栽植132个优质新品种。 传统意义上的玉米属于粗粮，可近些年，它变得越来越香甜软糯，这离不开鲜食玉米的功劳。市农林科 学院玉米首席科学家赵久然介绍，鲜食玉米既含有淀粉、蛋白质等营养物质，也含有可溶性糖、氨基 酸、多种矿物质、维生素以及膳食纤维。眼下，我国的鲜食玉米种植面积近3000万亩，成为全球最大的 鲜食玉米生产国。 会议期间，多场平行活动同步开展，包括农业中关村参观考察、鲜食玉米品种产品设备包装物展洽会、 新品种和优质加工产品展示选品会、农业开发项目招商洽谈会等。 来源：北京日报客户端 2005年，中国鲜食玉米大会正式创办，近年来每年举办二至四届。大会迄今已在全国20多个主产区连续 举办43届，成为该产业起步最早、资源最集中、规模与影响力最大的全产业链交流合作平台。常驻会址 落地平谷后，大会每年将在这里举办。 平谷区峪口镇是北京建设农业中关村的核心承载区，承载着农业科技创新的使命。峪口镇副镇长台启民 介绍，该镇将借常驻会址落地的契机，常 ...

Core Points - The article highlights the efforts in Shanxi's Gaoping City to ensure timely harvesting of crops, particularly sweet potatoes and apples, in response to recent heavy rainfall that threatens crop quality and storage [1][3][4] - Local authorities and businesses are collaborating to mobilize resources, including machinery and labor, to expedite the harvesting process and safeguard the agricultural yield [1][6] Group 1: Sweet Potato Harvesting - In Dongzhou Village, 500 acres of sweet potatoes are being harvested using excavators and a team of over 40 volunteers to enhance efficiency and minimize damage [1][3] - The local government is coordinating efforts to ensure that sweet potatoes are dried and stored properly, while also monitoring weather conditions to assist farmers with other crops like corn and soybeans [1][4] Group 2: Apple Harvesting - In Houzhuang Village, villagers are actively engaged in apple harvesting, taking advantage of dry weather to prevent fruit from cracking and rotting [3][4] - The Minfeng Fruit Cooperative manages 550 acres of apple trees, ensuring that harvested apples are sorted, transported, and stored to maintain quality and maximize farmer profits [4] Group 3: Corn Harvesting and Drying - Gaoping City has planted 443,000 acres of corn, with ongoing efforts to harvest and dry the crop efficiently [6] - The city has established five technical support teams and coordinated seven grain drying points, deploying over 500 agricultural machines to assist farmers [6] - As of now, 110,000 acres of corn have been harvested, with over 350 tons of grain dried to prevent spoilage [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing a crisis due to a lack of orders from China, which historically has been their largest customer, raising concerns about the stability of the agricultural sector and the broader U.S. economy [2][4] - The absence of Chinese orders deviates significantly from normal trading patterns, with approximately 8% to 9% of expected soybean sales to China currently at zero [2][4] Group 1: Financial Crisis for Farmers - Soybean prices have dropped by 40% compared to three years ago, while production costs and interest rates have risen, leading to potential losses for farmers [4] - Current soybean futures are around $10.10 per bushel, below the estimated production cost of $11.03 per bushel, resulting in significant financial strain [4] - Farmers are facing limited budget flexibility, with many relying on loans to cover losses, indicating a widespread financial crisis among the 500,000 soybean growers [4][5] Group 2: Economic Impact Beyond Agriculture - Agriculture contributes $9.5 trillion annually to the U.S. economy, accounting for 18.7% of total economic output, and supports over 1 million jobs [5] - The disruption in soybean trade could have a multiplier effect, impacting manufacturing, logistics, and rural communities across the nation [5] Group 3: Trade Tensions Reshaping Global Markets - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have altered global soybean trade dynamics, with U.S. soybeans facing a 20% retaliatory tariff disadvantage compared to South American competitors [6][7] - China has significantly increased its soybean imports from Brazil, with 71% of its total soybean imports in 2024 coming from Brazil, up from previous years [7] Group 4: Urgency for Resolution - The seasonal nature of agriculture creates urgency for resolving trade issues, as farmers may be forced to sell crops at steep discounts if market conditions do not improve before harvest [9] - Despite a recent extension of the tariff ceasefire, progress on specific agricultural concerns remains limited, highlighting the need for immediate action [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating [5] | | Protein Meal | Oscillating [5] | | Corn/Starch | Oscillating [6][7] | | Live Pigs | Oscillating Strongly [7] | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating [8] | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating [11] | | Cotton | Oscillating [11] | | Sugar | Oscillating Weakly in the Long - Term, Oscillating in the Short - Term [13] | | Pulp | Oscillating Strongly [14][15] | | Logs | Oscillating Weakly [16] | 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also evaluates the impact of policies, weather, and other factors on these products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some to oscillate, and some to be weak in different time frames [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, it oscillated and diverged, with a strong production increase expectation for Malaysian palm oil in July. International data shows a production increase in Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 20, while exports decreased. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, trade agreements, and biodiesel demand [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices lagged behind the futures, and the market fluctuated more. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate due to mixed factors. Domestically, there is a short - term adjustment risk, but it is expected to be strong in the long run [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Affected by the market atmosphere, both futures and spot prices oscillated strongly. Supply may tighten in July - August, but demand is weak due to low livestock and poultry breeding profits and losses in the deep - processing industry [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, far - month futures rose. Supply is under pressure in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand and inventory show some changes. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with policy influence [1][7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and rubber prices oscillate at a high level. The rubber market is affected by the overall commodity market sentiment, with short - term supply limited and demand relatively stable [8][9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has entered an adjustment stage. Although it was affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, the price center may rise slightly in the short - term [11]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillated strongly. In the short - term, low inventory supports prices, but upward momentum may be insufficient. In the medium - term, prices may be under pressure due to expected increased production [11]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. In the long - term, prices are expected to be weak due to expected supply increase, while in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - environment, it is recommended to go long. Although there are supply pressures in the medium - term, the macro - environment remains favorable [14][15]. - **Logs**: The market adjusted downward as the overall market adjusted. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak pattern in the medium - term [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report provides data on various agricultural products, including prices, production, inventory, and other aspects, to help analyze the market trends of these products [20][52][82][108][121][142][160]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines different rating standards, such as "strongly bullish", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weakly bearish", along with the corresponding expected price change ranges and time periods [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].