核 心 观 点 货币更注重与财政协同。 政府预计仍是2026年加杠杆的主体，而央行宽松的节奏或主要配合财政发力，在政 府加杠杆放缓的时段维持利率的平稳。货币政策预计有三个特点，一是传统产能扩张类信贷将继续压降；二是 央行对于银行负债端利率比价约束持续关注；三是货币政策更要兼顾债务风险、汇率风险、银行息差等中长期 变量。 二、扩内需：广义财政稳投资，补贴优化扩消费 广义财政扩张稳投资。 中央财政和准财政工具直接托底但效果有限，促进投资止跌回稳更重要的是充分发挥 新增专项债作用，以"新基建"、"绿色基建"稳投资既能在短期内促进投资止跌回稳，又能在中长期促进产业转 型。 补贴政策优化扩消费。 商品消费重视补贴效用，服务消费支持扩大供给。个体补贴缩量、全国统一补贴标 准，或是在高效利用宝贵财政资源的出发点上，考虑到补贴对存量受惠群体的效用或边际下降，对增量受惠群 体的效用或较高，以图惠及更多消费者、保持较高的政策效用而提出的。发展服务消费或需要更重视优质服务 供给，顺应当前商品消费倾向下滑、服务消费韧性较强、新消费广受关注的消费趋势。 三、反内卷：治标过后要治本，清理欠款稳经营 标准引领落后产能出清，清理欠款减轻企业 ...

Core Insights - Germany's trade with China reached €185.9 billion from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, reaffirming China as Germany's largest trading partner [1] - In the first three quarters of this year, Germany imported €124.5 billion from China, reflecting an 8.5% increase, with the fastest-growing imports being electrical equipment, clothing, and machinery [1] - Conversely, Germany's exports to China totaled €61.4 billion, showing a significant decline of 12.3% [1] - In comparison, Germany's trade with the United States amounted to €184.7 billion, down 3.9% year-on-year, with exports to the U.S. decreasing by 7.8% to €112.7 billion, while imports from the U.S. increased by 2.8% to €71.9 billion [1] - The German Federal Statistical Office indicated that weak global demand, a complex trade environment, and adjustments in traditional industries like automotive are key factors affecting Germany's foreign trade structure [1] - From 2016 to 2023, China consistently held the position of Germany's largest trading partner, but the U.S. is projected to reclaim this status in 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for macro policies to focus on "investing in people," which aims to transform financial resources into opportunities for human development and quality of life improvement [1] - The aging population is reshaping economic structures, leading to a decline in material needs and an increase in cultural and spiritual demands, which will drive systemic changes in existing economic forms [1][2] - The shift towards an aging society will accelerate the decline of labor-intensive industries and promote a transition towards sectors that utilize age-appreciating skills, presenting opportunities for industrial transformation and trade structure adjustment [2] Group 2 - A continuous industry structure based on individual life cycles is emerging, emphasizing the importance of family factors in the economy related to aging services, which will address intergenerational benefit conflicts [3] - The economic activities related to aging services extend beyond just the elderly phase, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach that includes family dynamics and social support across all age groups [3] - The historical shift in macro and microeconomic patterns necessitates that "investing in people" becomes a guiding policy to sustain long-term economic growth in an aging society [4]