核 心 观 点 货币更注重与财政协同。 政府预计仍是2026年加杠杆的主体，而央行宽松的节奏或主要配合财政发力，在政 府加杠杆放缓的时段维持利率的平稳。货币政策预计有三个特点，一是传统产能扩张类信贷将继续压降；二是 央行对于银行负债端利率比价约束持续关注；三是货币政策更要兼顾债务风险、汇率风险、银行息差等中长期 变量。 二、扩内需：广义财政稳投资，补贴优化扩消费 广义财政扩张稳投资。 中央财政和准财政工具直接托底但效果有限，促进投资止跌回稳更重要的是充分发挥 新增专项债作用，以"新基建"、"绿色基建"稳投资既能在短期内促进投资止跌回稳，又能在中长期促进产业转 型。 补贴政策优化扩消费。 商品消费重视补贴效用，服务消费支持扩大供给。个体补贴缩量、全国统一补贴标 准，或是在高效利用宝贵财政资源的出发点上，考虑到补贴对存量受惠群体的效用或边际下降，对增量受惠群 体的效用或较高，以图惠及更多消费者、保持较高的政策效用而提出的。发展服务消费或需要更重视优质服务 供给，顺应当前商品消费倾向下滑、服务消费韧性较强、新消费广受关注的消费趋势。 三、反内卷：治标过后要治本，清理欠款稳经营 标准引领落后产能出清，清理欠款减轻企业 ...

2026 年 01 月 05 日 宏 观 研 究 开年政策如何做？ ——从部委工作会议看政策脉络 一：财政货币协同，重在结构和效率 财政扩张从抬规模到提效率。2026 年财政扩张的重心逐步从总量 加码向结构增效转型，债务工具将加强协同以扩大乘数效应。在财政 工作的重点任务方面，财政从重投资转向投资、消费并重的趋势延续， 财政资金投向的主体预计进一步向居民倾斜、领域上侧重民生保障。 宏 观 专 题 货币更注重与财政协同。政府预计仍是 2026 年加杠杆的主体，而 央行宽松的节奏或主要配合财政发力，在政府加杠杆放缓的时段维持 利率的平稳。货币政策预计有三个特点，一是传统产能扩张类信贷将 继续压降；二是央行对于银行负债端利率比价约束持续关注；三是货 币政策更要兼顾债务风险、汇率风险、银行息差等中长期变量。 二、扩内需：广义财政稳投资，补贴优化扩消费 投资要点： 广义财政扩张稳投资。中央财政和准财政工具直接托底但效果有 限，促进投资止跌回稳更重要的是充分发挥新增专项债作用，以"新 基建"、"绿色基建"稳投资既能在短期内促进投资止跌回稳，又能在 中长期促进产业转型。 补贴政策优化扩消费。商品消费重视补贴效用，服务消费支 ...

Economic Resilience and Growth - China's exports grew by 8.0% in July despite a 24% tariff pressure from the US, with equipment manufacturing showing a 9.9% growth rate [2][3] - The diversification of exports and industrial upgrades are restructuring the resilience of the Chinese economy, with high-tech industries showing a 9.5% increase in industrial added value [3][4] - The service sector contributed significantly to economic growth, with a 5.5% increase in added value in the first half of the year, accounting for 60.2% of economic growth [4] Export Dynamics - The decline in exports to the US was offset by increases in exports to ASEAN (13.5%), Africa (24.5%), Latin America (7.3%), and the EU (7.0%) [3] - The "rush to export" effect is expected to have a manageable impact, with an estimated 1.7% of 2024's total export amount being pre-empted [5] - Knowledge-intensive service exports, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals, are anticipated to become new growth points for China's exports [6] Service Consumption Growth - There is significant potential for growth in service consumption, with projections indicating an increase in the share of service consumption from 46% in 2024 to over 10% by 2035 as GDP doubles [7] - Key areas for service consumption growth include health services and cultural entertainment, which are expected to see increased demand as income levels rise [7][9] - The development of service consumption is seen as a long-term growth driver, with less risk of demand overextension compared to durable goods [7] Policy Recommendations - Recommendations include increasing subsidies in the service consumption sector to encourage habit formation and structural upgrades [8] - Enhancing the quality of supply in cultural and entertainment services is suggested to foster new growth in service consumption [9] - Targeted support in areas such as elderly care, childcare, and retraining is recommended to address both immediate and long-term needs [10] Financial and Monetary Policy Coordination - The current "hot fiscal, cold credit" phenomenon is attributed to a shift in credit demand towards high-quality development sectors [11] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is essential, with suggestions for fiscal interest subsidies to lower financing costs for the real economy [12] - The focus should be on quality rather than quantity in credit provision, with expectations that economic growth will meet targets without further interest rate cuts [14]

Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has lowered its policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0% as part of a series of rate cuts initiated in March 2024, reflecting high uncertainty in the global economic outlook and anticipated economic slowdown [1][2] - The SNB projects inflation rates of 0.5% for 2026 and 0.7% for 2027, both lower than previous expectations, while GDP growth is forecasted to be between 1% and 1.5% in 2025 [1] - The Swiss franc has appreciated approximately 9% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025, prompting the SNB to adopt a loose monetary policy to mitigate the impact of currency appreciation on export competitiveness and domestic prices [1][3] Group 2 - The shift from tightening to easing monetary policy is observed globally, with significant divergence in inflation expectations and economic recovery among major economies, influencing their respective monetary policies [2] - Central banks may prefer quantitative easing (QE) or fiscal-monetary coordination over simple rate cuts, with zero or negative interest rates being utilized under specific conditions such as deflation or excessive currency appreciation [2] - The SNB's rate cuts may increase global market liquidity, potentially pressuring other countries to adjust their interest rates to maintain capital stability [3] Group 3 - Long-term low interest rates could lead to significant capital inflows into real estate and stock markets, risking asset price bubbles that may destabilize financial markets if they burst [4] - Lower interest rates may compress financial institutions' profit margins, affecting their profitability and potentially impacting the stability of the financial system [4] - The SNB's efforts to alleviate the appreciation of the Swiss franc through rate cuts could lead to volatility in global currency markets if other economies adopt similar measures [4]