值得注意的是，制造业投资在相当大程度上缓冲了地产投资的影响。根据我们的测算，前七月房地产投 资对总体固定资产投资累计增速的影响为1.5个百分点，而同期制造业投资的拉动为2.1个百分点。 在美国对华24%关税重压下，我国7月出口却逆势增长8.0%；当房地产投资持续影响投资，装备制造却 以9.9%的增速扛起大旗——在极端天气与贸易摩擦的双重夹击中，中国经济何以实现"稳中有进"，完成 全年5%的经济增长目标？ 近日，针对相关问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委。他表示，结合最新经 济数据来看，出口多元化与产业升级，正在重构中国经济的韧性底盘，根据其团队的估算，在考虑抢出 口、以旧换新补贴前置、房地产小阳春等因素的影响后，下半年经济或温和放缓，但以知识密集型服务 出口和服务消费为代表的经济新动能已初露头角，有望助力全年5%左右的经济增长目标实现。 经济韧性格局重构 《21世纪》：在极端天气、外需不确定性下，中国经济"稳中有进"的韧性主要来自哪些支撑？ 鲁政委：一是出口多元化有效对冲了对美出口的下降。以美元计价，前七月数据显示，我国出口累计增 长6.1%，虽然对美出口在关税影响下累计下降12.6% ...

Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has lowered its policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0% as part of a series of rate cuts initiated in March 2024, reflecting high uncertainty in the global economic outlook and anticipated economic slowdown [1][2] - The SNB projects inflation rates of 0.5% for 2026 and 0.7% for 2027, both lower than previous expectations, while GDP growth is forecasted to be between 1% and 1.5% in 2025 [1] - The Swiss franc has appreciated approximately 9% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025, prompting the SNB to adopt a loose monetary policy to mitigate the impact of currency appreciation on export competitiveness and domestic prices [1][3] Group 2 - The shift from tightening to easing monetary policy is observed globally, with significant divergence in inflation expectations and economic recovery among major economies, influencing their respective monetary policies [2] - Central banks may prefer quantitative easing (QE) or fiscal-monetary coordination over simple rate cuts, with zero or negative interest rates being utilized under specific conditions such as deflation or excessive currency appreciation [2] - The SNB's rate cuts may increase global market liquidity, potentially pressuring other countries to adjust their interest rates to maintain capital stability [3] Group 3 - Long-term low interest rates could lead to significant capital inflows into real estate and stock markets, risking asset price bubbles that may destabilize financial markets if they burst [4] - Lower interest rates may compress financial institutions' profit margins, affecting their profitability and potentially impacting the stability of the financial system [4] - The SNB's efforts to alleviate the appreciation of the Swiss franc through rate cuts could lead to volatility in global currency markets if other economies adopt similar measures [4]