Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent fluctuations in gold prices, with a notable increase of over 1.5% on a recent Monday, pushing the price above $3400 per ounce, marking a five-week high. However, on July 22, the spot gold price experienced a sharp decline, trading at $3391.07 per ounce at the time of reporting [4][5]. - The article discusses the impact of trade negotiation uncertainties on the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which have weakened. A deadline of August 1 has been set for countries to reach agreements, or they will face increased tariffs. This uncertainty is seen as beneficial for gold prices [7]. - Analysts suggest that concerns over U.S. debt growth and potential updates on tariffs are drawing attention to gold, which appears to have solid support at current price levels [7]. Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index saw an increase of over 1%, with significant gains from companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and SoftBank Group, both rising over 5% [9][10]. - The article notes that the ruling coalition of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the recent Senate elections, complicating Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's governance [10]. - Following the Senate elections, investors are expected to reassess the Japanese market, with a "buy Japan" trend not anticipated to emerge immediately [11].

金十数据7月21日讯，金价在周一上涨逾1%，站上3400美元/盎司关口。因美元和美债收益率在贸易谈 判存在不确定性的背景下走弱，美国规定各国必须在8月1日的最后期限之前达成协议，否则将面临更多 关税。High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示："随着8月1日最后期限的临近，这给市场带来 了一定程度的不确定性，这当然是有利的。"Meger称，有关美国比预期更早降息的传言正在升温，有 关美联储主席鲍威尔可能被替换以及美联储重组的猜测加剧了市场的不安情绪。 关税最后期限临近 市场不确定性推动金价站上3400美元 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising by $62.76 or 1.92% for the week ending July 4, marking the best performance in three weeks [1] - The rise in gold prices was driven by uncertainties in trade negotiations and concerns over fiscal risks associated with the "Big and Beautiful" plan, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening dollar [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, which overshadowed some of the positive momentum in the gold market [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" remains, with President Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs of up to 70% on certain goods, which has attracted safe-haven buying in gold [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to increase the existing $36.2 trillion national debt by $3.4 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the stability of the debt market [4] - Speculative long positions in gold are increasing, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reporting an increase of 7,918 contracts to a total of 443,920 contracts as of July 4 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The latest non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, but uncertainties in trade negotiations should be monitored [1] Group 1 - LPL Financial's Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach indicates that if businesses continue their hiring trends from this year, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait-and-see" position in the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policies, there has not yet been a significant wave of layoffs among companies [1] - The U.S. government is still engaged in detailed negotiations with several major trading partners, making the ultimate impact on businesses difficult to predict [1]

Group 1 - LME three-month copper rose by $54 or 0.56% to $9,702 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar, despite ongoing concerns about demand and unresolved trade tensions [1][3] - Copper prices have increased approximately 20% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [1] - The weaker dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for buyers using other currencies, providing some support to prices [3] Group 2 - Recent manufacturing PMI data from Europe and the US remains in contraction territory, indicating a drag from current tariff situations on demand [3] - The US investigation into copper imports has led to a significant premium of COMEX copper prices over LME prices, with a spread of $946 per ton [3] - The production guidance for the Kakula mine has been adjusted to 370,000 to 420,000 tons for 2025, with the 2026 target of approximately 600,000 tons withdrawn [3][4] Group 3 - The downward revision of production estimates, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo, is impacting supply outlook, suggesting a potential supply shortage by year-end [4]