Market Overview - International gold is currently trading at $3380.79 per ounce, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.91 and a rise of 0.20% [1] - Recent poor U.S. non-farm data has led the market to bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, driving gold prices significantly higher [1] - Changes in Federal Reserve officials and ongoing global central bank gold purchases are also influencing gold prices [1] - Uncertainties in trade negotiations and geopolitical risks continue to create volatility in gold prices [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart: Bollinger Bands are opening slowly, with gold prices operating above the middle band; MACD shows a death cross with a potential golden cross forming; RSI indicates oversold conditions with a rebound in the 62-53 range [1] - 4-hour chart: Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices below the upper band; MACD shows a golden cross; RSI indicates overbought conditions with a notable pullback; key support at 3300 and resistance at 3400 [1] - 1-hour chart: Bollinger Bands are opening slowly, with gold prices below the upper band; MACD shows a death cross; RSI indicates overbought conditions with weakening upward momentum; support at 3300 and resistance at 3400 [1] Future Trading Strategy - For aggressive traders, consider buying near the support level of $3300, specifically in the range of $3315-25 [3] - For conservative traders, consider buying at the support level of $3250, specifically in the range of $3270-280 [3] - For aggressive traders, consider selling near the resistance level of $3400, specifically in the range of $3385-80 [3] - For conservative traders, consider selling at the resistance level of $3450, specifically in the range of $3440-30 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent fluctuations in gold prices, with a notable increase of over 1.5% on a recent Monday, pushing the price above $3400 per ounce, marking a five-week high. However, on July 22, the spot gold price experienced a sharp decline, trading at $3391.07 per ounce at the time of reporting [4][5]. - The article discusses the impact of trade negotiation uncertainties on the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which have weakened. A deadline of August 1 has been set for countries to reach agreements, or they will face increased tariffs. This uncertainty is seen as beneficial for gold prices [7]. - Analysts suggest that concerns over U.S. debt growth and potential updates on tariffs are drawing attention to gold, which appears to have solid support at current price levels [7]. Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index saw an increase of over 1%, with significant gains from companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and SoftBank Group, both rising over 5% [9][10]. - The article notes that the ruling coalition of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the recent Senate elections, complicating Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's governance [10]. - Following the Senate elections, investors are expected to reassess the Japanese market, with a "buy Japan" trend not anticipated to emerge immediately [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen over 1% to surpass $3,400 per ounce due to market uncertainty driven by impending tariff deadlines and weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The deadline for trade negotiations is set for August 1, creating uncertainty in the market which is beneficial for gold prices [1] - Speculation regarding an earlier-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is increasing, contributing to market anxiety [1] Group 2: Expert Commentary - David Meger, Head of Metal Trading at High Ridge Futures, noted that the approaching deadline is causing a degree of uncertainty in the market [1] - There are growing concerns about the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and restructuring within the Federal Reserve, which is exacerbating market unease [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising by $62.76 or 1.92% for the week ending July 4, marking the best performance in three weeks [1] - The rise in gold prices was driven by uncertainties in trade negotiations and concerns over fiscal risks associated with the "Big and Beautiful" plan, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening dollar [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, which overshadowed some of the positive momentum in the gold market [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" remains, with President Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs of up to 70% on certain goods, which has attracted safe-haven buying in gold [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to increase the existing $36.2 trillion national debt by $3.4 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the stability of the debt market [4] - Speculative long positions in gold are increasing, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reporting an increase of 7,918 contracts to a total of 443,920 contracts as of July 4 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The latest non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, but uncertainties in trade negotiations should be monitored [1] Group 1 - LPL Financial's Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach indicates that if businesses continue their hiring trends from this year, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait-and-see" position in the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policies, there has not yet been a significant wave of layoffs among companies [1] - The U.S. government is still engaged in detailed negotiations with several major trading partners, making the ultimate impact on businesses difficult to predict [1]

Group 1 - LME three-month copper rose by $54 or 0.56% to $9,702 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar, despite ongoing concerns about demand and unresolved trade tensions [1][3] - Copper prices have increased approximately 20% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [1] - The weaker dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for buyers using other currencies, providing some support to prices [3] Group 2 - Recent manufacturing PMI data from Europe and the US remains in contraction territory, indicating a drag from current tariff situations on demand [3] - The US investigation into copper imports has led to a significant premium of COMEX copper prices over LME prices, with a spread of $946 per ton [3] - The production guidance for the Kakula mine has been adjusted to 370,000 to 420,000 tons for 2025, with the 2026 target of approximately 600,000 tons withdrawn [3][4] Group 3 - The downward revision of production estimates, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo, is impacting supply outlook, suggesting a potential supply shortage by year-end [4]