Global Macro - The strong non-farm payroll data for June shows an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 110,000, and the previous value was revised up from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, slightly below the expected 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2% [1] - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, providing more policy space amid ongoing pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 26.7% to 4.3% and the September cut probability slightly decreasing from 69.1% to 62.4% [1] Employment Analysis - The ADP report earlier indicated a decline of 33,000 jobs, highlighting a key difference as it only accounts for private sector employment, excluding government jobs [2] - Government sector added 73,000 jobs, contributing half of the non-farm employment increase, primarily from state and local governments, while federal employment decreased by 7,000 [2] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly to 74,000, down from 137,000 in May, with most growth in lower-skilled sectors such as education and healthcare [2][3] - The labor force participation rate has declined for three consecutive months, contributing to the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The decrease in labor supply due to reduced immigration and government layoffs has led to a tighter labor market, particularly affecting low-skilled labor supply [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The unexpected strong non-farm data significantly reduces the urgency for rate cuts in the short term, with July lacking sufficient justification for a cut [4] - Future rate cuts may depend on inflation data, with the next potential window for a cut possibly in the fourth quarter as tariff-related inflation effects dissipate [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a patient approach in assessing data changes, avoiding aggressive policy adjustments in a high uncertainty environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The latest non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, but uncertainties in trade negotiations should be monitored [1] Group 1 - LPL Financial's Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach indicates that if businesses continue their hiring trends from this year, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait-and-see" position in the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policies, there has not yet been a significant wave of layoffs among companies [1] - The U.S. government is still engaged in detailed negotiations with several major trading partners, making the ultimate impact on businesses difficult to predict [1]

Core Viewpoint - The May CPI report is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's current wait-and-see stance on interest rates [1] Group 1 - Commonwealth Financial Network's fixed income director, Sam Millette, anticipates that the CPI report will show moderate inflationary pressures [1] - There is a possibility of unexpected volatility for investors depending on the report's outcomes [1]

Group 1 - Invesco predicts that the US dollar may decline by another 5% in the coming months due to pressure on the US economy and President Trump's preference for a weaker dollar to boost exports [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the upcoming US CPI data to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, with a likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the near term [1] - Most economists anticipate that the Bank of Japan will delay its next interest rate hike until the first quarter of next year, with no expectations for a rate increase in the upcoming policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that foreign investors find long-term Japanese government bonds attractive, despite uncertainty regarding the timing of bond issuance adjustments by the Japanese government [2] - Jeffrey Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," believes the dollar is entering a long-term downtrend, which may lead to international stock markets outperforming US markets [2] - Gundlach also expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting, despite current low inflation levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance regarding monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Stance** - The inflation data is anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious approach ahead of the policy decision next week [1] - The impact of increased tariffs is currently limited, which supports the Fed's position [1] - **Market Expectations** - According to LSEG data, the money market fully prices in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 18 [1] - There is an expectation that the probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 50% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The revision of the U.S. GDP data for Q1 is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts in the fall of this year [1] Group 1: Economic Data - The second estimate of the U.S. Q1 GDP indicates an economic contraction of 0.2%, which is an improvement from the previously reported contraction of 0.3% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - Analyst Paul Stanley anticipates that the Federal Reserve may restart interest rate cuts in the fall of this year, with a possibility of 1 to 2 rate cuts in the last few months of 2025 [1] - This expectation aligns with market pricing as indicated by data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent decline in gold futures prices, with the Shanghai gold futures closing at 739.82 yuan per gram, down 3.20% on May 15 [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price on May 15 was quoted at 738 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 1.82 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [3] - The U.S. April CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, and below market expectations of 2.4% [3] Group 2 - The core CPI in the U.S. for April rose by 2.8% year-on-year, meeting market expectations but still significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [3] - Notable financial journalist Nick Timiraos suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its wait-and-see stance based on the April CPI data, as the figures largely align with expectations [3] - According to Guotou Futures, the recent pullback in precious metals is attributed to reduced market bets on a U.S. economic recession, leading to a shift in sentiment that caused gold prices to retract previous risk premiums [4]

Core Viewpoint - The April inflation data does not provide the Federal Reserve with a reason to change its outlook, as the figures largely align with expectations from inflation trackers [1] Group 1 - The April inflation numbers are consistent with predictions from labor department measures [1] - The increase in tariffs in April may have influenced the inflation data, suggesting that without these changes, the Fed might have considered rate cuts sooner [1] - Potential cost increases in the coming months could lead the Fed to maintain its current stance until it can better assess whether price hikes are temporary [1]