交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 7 月 4 日 全球宏观 劳动力参与率三连降推动失业率意外放缓。6 月新增就业呈现出明显的结构性 特征：政府裁员、人工智能发展驱使科技行业主动裁员，压缩了对行政类和高 技能劳动者的需求。另一方面，特朗普政府收紧移民政策削弱了低技能劳动力 供给，使得部分服务型、劳动密集型行业面临人手短缺。新增移民锐减趋势 下，劳动力供给的减少意味着失业率分母基数的下降，也解释了为何在新增就 业放缓的背景下，失业率仍能从 4.2%回落至 4.1%，主要是由于劳动参与率 （由 4 月的 62.6%放缓至 6 月的 62.3%）下降而非就业需求的实质性改善。 后市观察：当前的经济数据格局为美联储维持观望立场提供了充分支撑。尽管 特朗普持续施压要求降息，并尽早提名新的美联储主席，且美联储主席鲍威尔 本周虽然表示 7 月降息选项"未排除"，但这更多是一种策略性表态，而非政 策立场的实质性转变。从技术层面看，领先指标的初请失业金人数仍维持在相 对较低位置，劳动力市场韧性依然存在。美联储当前的核心关切仍是防范通胀 风险，特别是关税政策可能带来的夏季价格上涨压力。在经济基本面尚能承 受、劳动力市场保持相对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, but uncertainties in trade negotiations should be monitored [1] Group 1 - LPL Financial's Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach indicates that if businesses continue their hiring trends from this year, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait-and-see" position in the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policies, there has not yet been a significant wave of layoffs among companies [1] - The U.S. government is still engaged in detailed negotiations with several major trading partners, making the ultimate impact on businesses difficult to predict [1]

Core Viewpoint - The May CPI report is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's current wait-and-see stance on interest rates [1] Group 1 - Commonwealth Financial Network's fixed income director, Sam Millette, anticipates that the CPI report will show moderate inflationary pressures [1] - There is a possibility of unexpected volatility for investors depending on the report's outcomes [1]

Group 1 - Invesco predicts that the US dollar may decline by another 5% in the coming months due to pressure on the US economy and President Trump's preference for a weaker dollar to boost exports [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the upcoming US CPI data to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, with a likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the near term [1] - Most economists anticipate that the Bank of Japan will delay its next interest rate hike until the first quarter of next year, with no expectations for a rate increase in the upcoming policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that foreign investors find long-term Japanese government bonds attractive, despite uncertainty regarding the timing of bond issuance adjustments by the Japanese government [2] - Jeffrey Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," believes the dollar is entering a long-term downtrend, which may lead to international stock markets outperforming US markets [2] - Gundlach also expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting, despite current low inflation levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance regarding monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Stance** - The inflation data is anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious approach ahead of the policy decision next week [1] - The impact of increased tariffs is currently limited, which supports the Fed's position [1] - **Market Expectations** - According to LSEG data, the money market fully prices in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 18 [1] - There is an expectation that the probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 50% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The revision of the U.S. GDP data for Q1 is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts in the fall of this year [1] Group 1: Economic Data - The second estimate of the U.S. Q1 GDP indicates an economic contraction of 0.2%, which is an improvement from the previously reported contraction of 0.3% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - Analyst Paul Stanley anticipates that the Federal Reserve may restart interest rate cuts in the fall of this year, with a possibility of 1 to 2 rate cuts in the last few months of 2025 [1] - This expectation aligns with market pricing as indicated by data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent decline in gold futures prices, with the Shanghai gold futures closing at 739.82 yuan per gram, down 3.20% on May 15 [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price on May 15 was quoted at 738 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 1.82 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [3] - The U.S. April CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, and below market expectations of 2.4% [3] Group 2 - The core CPI in the U.S. for April rose by 2.8% year-on-year, meeting market expectations but still significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [3] - Notable financial journalist Nick Timiraos suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its wait-and-see stance based on the April CPI data, as the figures largely align with expectations [3] - According to Guotou Futures, the recent pullback in precious metals is attributed to reduced market bets on a U.S. economic recession, leading to a shift in sentiment that caused gold prices to retract previous risk premiums [4]