Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices surged over 2% last week, closing above $3400 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold prices increased by $157.77 in August, marking a 4.8% rise, the best monthly performance since April [1] - As of August 29, the CME gold open interest rose by 39,208 contracts to 478,014 contracts, indicating increased bullish sentiment [8] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR GOLD TRUST, saw its holdings increase by 20.91 tons, reaching a total of 977.68 tons [8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September, despite some positive economic data [2][3] - Fed officials, including Governor Waller, expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, citing risks in the labor market [3][4] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to further influence gold prices and Fed policy [1][3] Group 3: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [6][7] - The potential for Trump to exert greater influence over the selection of regional Fed presidents could further impact market perceptions of Fed independence [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices are testing resistance around $3453, with potential targets set between $3580 and $3780 [8] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3430-$3400, with critical support at $3380-$3360 [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - International spot gold prices surged over 2% last week, closing above $3400 per ounce, marking the second consecutive week of gains [1] - In August, spot gold accumulated a rise of $157.77, achieving a 4.8% increase, the best monthly performance since April [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for August is anticipated to further influence gold prices following a weak report in July [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Despite some positive U.S. economic data, dovish sentiments within the Federal Reserve have increased, strengthening expectations for a rate cut in September [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was revised up to 3.3%, and initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [3] - The core PCE price index for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations, which has further solidified the anticipation of a rate cut [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has raised questions about the Fed's independence, contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [6] - Trump's potential influence over the Fed's board could lead to a majority of positions being filled by his appointees, further challenging the Fed's autonomy [6] - Cook's lawsuit against her dismissal has somewhat eased market volatility, but concerns about the Fed's independence persist [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Gold prices have been steadily rising, with increased bullish sentiment reflected in rising positions; CME gold open interest rose by 39,208 contracts to 478,014 [8] - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 6,364 contracts to 148,122 [8] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR GOLD TRUST, saw its holdings increase by 20.91 tons, reaching a total of 977.68 tons [8]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a strong upward trend last week, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - During the week of August 18-22, spot gold opened at $3337.81 per ounce, peaked at $3378.75, and closed at $3371.54, marking a weekly increase of $35.81 or 1.07% [1]. - Despite initial pressure on gold prices due to a cooling expectation for a significant rate cut in September, Powell's remarks led to a rebound, reversing the downward trend observed earlier in the week [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell indicated that while there are inflationary risks, the Fed may still consider rate cuts in the coming months, increasing market bets on a September rate cut to 85% from 72% earlier in the week [2]. - The July meeting minutes revealed a split among Fed officials, with most viewing inflation risks as more severe than labor market weaknesses, while a few expressed concerns about the job market [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to influence market sentiment and gold prices [4][5]. - Recent discussions among U.S. and European leaders have not significantly improved the negotiation outlook, with potential territorial concessions for Ukraine being hinted at [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Gold prices have been fluctuating within a high range, with seasonal demand from major Asian markets remaining subdued, although some buying activity was noted ahead of a significant festival in India [6]. - Speculative long positions in gold futures decreased, with a reported reduction of 12,468 contracts to 141,758 contracts as of August 19 [6]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have recovered above the 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages, suggesting potential for further upward movement, although key resistance levels remain at $3400-$3420 and $3453 per ounce [7]. - Support levels are identified at $3360-$3340 and $3320-$3300 per ounce, with a break below these levels indicating potential downside risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a strong upward trend last week, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Last week, spot gold opened at $3337.81 per ounce, peaked at $3378.75, and closed at $3371.54, marking a weekly increase of $35.81 or 1.07% [1]. - Despite initial pressure on gold prices due to a decrease in expectations for a significant rate cut by the Fed, Powell's remarks led to a rebound, reversing previous declines [2]. - The market is closely monitoring geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern situations, as well as upcoming U.S. economic data that may influence the Fed's rate cut path [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell's speech indicated that while inflation risks are rising, the Fed may still consider rate cuts in the coming months, increasing market bets on a September rate cut to 85% [2]. - The July meeting minutes revealed a split among Fed officials regarding inflation and labor market risks, with most viewing inflation as a more significant threat [3]. - There are differing opinions within the Fed about the timing of potential rate cuts, with some officials advocating for immediate cuts while others suggest caution [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Uncertainty - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite recent diplomatic engagements [5]. - The potential for negotiations is complicated by various risks, including the possibility of territorial concessions by Ukraine [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Gold prices have been fluctuating within a high range, with seasonal market sentiment showing signs of decline, particularly in Asia's physical gold demand [6]. - Speculative long positions in gold futures have decreased, while open interest in gold contracts has increased slightly [6]. - Technically, gold prices are showing signs of potential upward movement, with key resistance levels identified at $3400-$3420 and $3453 per ounce, while support levels are at $3360-$3340 and $3320-$3300 [6].

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising by $62.76 or 1.92% for the week ending July 4, marking the best performance in three weeks [1] - The rise in gold prices was driven by uncertainties in trade negotiations and concerns over fiscal risks associated with the "Big and Beautiful" plan, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening dollar [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, which overshadowed some of the positive momentum in the gold market [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" remains, with President Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs of up to 70% on certain goods, which has attracted safe-haven buying in gold [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to increase the existing $36.2 trillion national debt by $3.4 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the stability of the debt market [4] - Speculative long positions in gold are increasing, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reporting an increase of 7,918 contracts to a total of 443,920 contracts as of July 4 [6]