宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 A 股盈利的四个宏观线索 ❖ 核心观点。 我们聚焦 2025Q3 万得全 A 的盈利分析，通过杜邦分解和供需格局等视角，寻 找上市公司盈利数据背后的宏观线索，以辅助宏观经济的跟踪与研判，可以发 现：1）ROE 的企稳主要靠销售净利率提升（费用控制）支撑，但销售毛利率 持续承压，说明宏观需求偏弱的背景下企业更多依赖"节流"而非"开源"来 稳定盈利；此外，从资产周转率和资产负债率来看，上市公司运营效率有所改 善，同时杠杆水平维持稳定。2）我们通过产能利用率与资本开支/折旧摊销来 观察行业供需格局，观察到 17 个行业中有 10 个行业处于产能利用率低且资 本开支/折旧摊销低的状态，在宏观上意味着多数行业处于当前供需格局较差 但未来将改善的状态。3）从估值/股息视角，我们根据"估值-股息"四象限梳 理不同行业在当前宏观环境下的相对位置，以此作为观察市场风险偏好的基 准。过去一年 33 个行业中有 24 个呈现"估值升、股息降"的特征，这一微观 结构的变化，侧面印证了宏观层面市场风险偏好在过去一年的边际提升。4） 从动态传导视角看，通过历史数据回溯，我们验证了微观盈利改 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 9.52 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for Q3 increased by 71% year-on-year, benefiting from market fluctuations. The return on equity (ROE) improved significantly, reaching 4.2%, up by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - The overall business performance is positively correlated with market conditions, with notable growth in brokerage services, which saw a year-on-year increase of 152.3% [3][9]. - The company is progressing with its merger with Guorong Securities, which is expected to expand its business scale and development potential [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for the reporting period, excluding other business income, was 36 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.4% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.4 billion CNY, up 70.6% year-on-year [7]. - The company's total assets, excluding client funds, reached 820 billion CNY, an increase of 62 billion CNY year-on-year, with a net asset value of 297 billion CNY, up 14.2 billion CNY [8]. Business Segment Performance - Proprietary business revenue totaled 1.85 billion CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 590 million CNY, showing a decrease from the previous quarter [3]. - Brokerage business revenue was 980 million CNY for the quarter, reflecting a 68.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 152.3% increase year-on-year [3]. - Investment banking revenue was 280 million CNY, with a slight year-on-year increase [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s current share price is 8.61 CNY, with a market capitalization of 38.483 billion CNY [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.33 CNY, 0.35 CNY, and 0.38 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 1.31, 1.27, and 1.23 [10][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Huatai Securities (601688) [1][9] Core Views - The overall performance of the company meets expectations, with a stable ROE year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year related to the sale of AssetMark [1][9] - The company’s total revenue for the reporting period was 266 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 127.3 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [7][9] Financial Performance Summary - The company's ROE for the reporting period was 6.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly ROE of 2.5%, up 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The financial leverage ratio at the end of the reporting period was 3.68 times, an increase of 0.33 times year-on-year and 0.4 times quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit margin for the reporting period was 47.9%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly net profit margin of 48.2%, up 2.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but down 13 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Proprietary business revenue totaled 10.22 billion yuan, with a quarterly revenue of 3.59 billion yuan, down 2.8 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] - Interest income from credit business was 10.04 billion yuan, with a quarterly income of 3.62 billion yuan, up 3.9 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] - Brokerage business revenue significantly increased to 6.59 billion yuan, with a quarterly revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, up 56% quarter-on-quarter and 128.1% year-on-year [2] Market and Valuation - The target price for Huatai Securities is set at 24.50 yuan, with the current price at 21.72 yuan, indicating potential upside [4][9] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 1.91, 2.07, and 2.26 yuan respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.13, 1.06, and 1.00 [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that China Merchants Securities has shown a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in various financial metrics, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's performance in the investment banking sector [1] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue (excluding other business income) reached 10.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with a quarterly revenue of 5.8 billion RMB, up by 11.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.19 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with a quarterly net profit of 2.88 billion RMB, up by 5.7% [1] - Return on equity (ROE) for the reporting period was 3.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Asset and Liability Overview - Total assets (excluding client funds) amounted to 499.3 billion RMB, an increase of 8.92 billion RMB year-on-year, with net assets of 131.4 billion RMB, up by 6.95 billion RMB [1] - The company's leverage ratio was 3.8 times, a decrease of 0.14 times year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The net income from capital-intensive businesses totaled 4.75 billion RMB, with a quarterly figure of 3.03 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.31 billion RMB [1] - Brokerage business revenue grew significantly, reaching 3.73 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 1.77 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 40.5% [1] - Investment banking revenue was 400 million RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 220 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2 billion RMB [1] Market Conditions - The average daily trading volume in the market was 12.64 trillion RMB, down by 17.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s market share in margin financing was 5.15%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regulatory Metrics - The risk coverage ratio stood at 241.7%, down by 13 percentage points from the previous period [1] - The net stable funding ratio was 160.3%, a decrease of 8.9 percentage points from the previous period [1] Investment Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS for 2025/2026/2027 at 1.45/1.56/1.67 RMB, with corresponding BPS of 13.98/15.02/16.06 RMB [1] - The target price is set at 22.37 RMB, based on a 1.6 times PB valuation for 2025, maintaining a "recommended" rating [1]

Core Insights - The company Hongda Electronics (300726.SZ) reported a total revenue of 857 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking an increase of 106 million yuan or 14.17% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 203 million yuan, an increase of 21.34 million yuan or 11.78% year-on-year, ranking 5th among disclosed peers [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 298 million yuan, ranking 3rd among disclosed peers [1] Financial Metrics - The latest debt-to-asset ratio is 11.18%, ranking 9th among disclosed peers, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points from the same period last year [3] - The latest gross profit margin is 57.30%, ranking 5th among disclosed peers [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is 4.13%, ranking 6th among disclosed peers, an increase of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.49 yuan, ranking 4th among disclosed peers, an increase of 0.05 yuan or 11.80% year-on-year [3] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.15 times, ranking 20th among disclosed peers, an increase of 0.02 times year-on-year [3] - The inventory turnover ratio is 0.39 times, an increase of 0.13 times year-on-year, marking a 48.52% increase [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 29,200, with the top ten shareholders holding 300 million shares, accounting for 72.80% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is Zeng Chen, holding 34.19% of the shares [3] - The second-largest shareholder is Zhong Ruonong, holding 29.72% of the shares [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.354 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.22% and achieving five consecutive years of growth [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 113 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.33% and three consecutive years of growth [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 31.0651 million yuan, which is an increase of 111 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Metrics - The latest debt-to-asset ratio stands at 48.43% [3] - The gross profit margin is reported at 11.90% [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is 5.88%, which is an increase of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.25 yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.63% [3] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.64 times, ranking 9th among disclosed peers [3] - The inventory turnover ratio is 4.61 times, also ranking 9th among disclosed peers [3] Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders is 34,400, with the top ten shareholders holding 276 million shares, accounting for 60.43% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is 冯就景, holding 51.6 million shares [3]

Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 2.15 billion yuan, an increase of 573 million yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.38% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 81.55 million yuan, with net cash inflow from operating activities amounting to 749 million yuan, an increase of 1.069 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, achieving three consecutive years of growth [1] Financial Ratios - The latest debt-to-asset ratio is 42.71%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] - The latest gross profit margin is 13.28%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is 2.13% [4] Efficiency Metrics - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.12 yuan [5] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.26 times, an increase of 0.06 times compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.69% [5] - The inventory turnover ratio is 0.58 times, an increase of 0.29 times compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 102.93% [5] Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders is 20,400, with the top ten shareholders holding 471 million shares, accounting for 67.27% of the total share capital [5] - The largest shareholder is Zhejiang Wolong Real Estate Investment Co., Ltd., holding 44.84% of the shares [5]