划重点 ① 进入 2026 年，美伊冲突已不再是单纯的市场利空。回顾 2025 年美军行动后的市场表现，标 普 500 指数在短短 3 个月内狂飙，证明现代市场已从恐慌模式进化为"消化适应"模式。 进入 2026 年，地缘政治的"灰犀牛"再次撞向全球市场。面对美伊冲突的升级，投资者最关心的问题莫过于：这究竟是 2001 年式的系统性崩溃，还 是如 2025 年般"先抑后扬"的财富机遇？ 在 RockFlow 投研团队看来，当霍尔木兹海峡的浪尖被战火笼罩，全球每一加仑汽油和每一枚精准导弹的背后，都藏着资产定价的剧烈重构。 而在 地缘政治的硝烟里，确定性是唯一的通货。 本文将为你全面复盘战争冲突背景下，美股市场的几大重要机遇和应对指南。 ② 投资者必须打破"战争即崩盘"的陈旧思维，关注风险溢价背后的估值重构机遇。霍尔木兹海 峡的危机是能源资产的"最强催化剂"，Brent 原油曾借此创下 75.8% 的季度涨幅。 ③ 防务 2.0 时代已经降临，以 Palantir 和 NOC 为代表的"国防科技股"正在取代传统重工。在战 火纷飞的 2026 年，能源主权与 AI 安防标的将成为资金跨越牛熊的硬通货。 RockFl ...

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of global interest rate cuts has emerged, initiated by central banks in Russia, the UK, Mexico, and Chile, reflecting a shift towards monetary easing amid easing inflation pressures [2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts Overview - Russia's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16%, marking its fifth consecutive cut since June, with a total reduction of 500 basis points from a high of 21% [4] - The UK and Mexico both announced a 25 basis point cut, with the UK reducing its rate to 3.75% and Mexico to 7%, continuing their respective easing cycles [4] - Chile's central bank initiated the cuts earlier, lowering its rate from 4.75% to 4.5%, citing a slowdown in inflation towards its 3% target as a key reason [5] Group 2: Economic Drivers Behind Rate Cuts - The common premise for the rate cuts across the four countries is the easing of inflation pressures, with each country experiencing a convergence towards their inflation targets [6] - Economic conditions vary significantly among the countries, with the UK facing notable economic weakness, while Russia and Chile show moderate growth, and Mexico continues its easing cycle to support growth [7] Group 3: Impact on Financial Markets - The interest rate cuts have led to a significant surge in precious metal prices, with silver reaching a historical high of over $67 per ounce and gold nearing its historical peak at $4,341 per ounce [8] - Precious metals have seen substantial annual gains, with silver prices increasing over 130% and gold prices rising more than 65% this year, driven by central bank purchases and ETF inflows [8][9] Group 4: Global Capital Flow and Asset Pricing - The global rate cut trend has intensified expectations for future cuts by the Federal Reserve, with recent U.S. inflation data supporting this outlook [10] - Predictions suggest that if the Fed lowers rates, it could lead to a reallocation of capital from dollar assets to emerging markets, benefiting risk-sensitive sectors and precious metals [11] Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The current wave of rate cuts reflects a collective attempt to stimulate growth amid easing inflation, highlighting the fragile and uneven nature of global economic recovery [12] - While lower rates can boost investment and consumer confidence, there are concerns about the effectiveness of such policies in the face of persistent economic challenges [13]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, driven by central bank purchases and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to complex global situations [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent jump in gold prices since late August is linked to market speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and rising long-term bond yields in multiple countries due to fiscal sustainability concerns [1] - France's 10-year bond yield has risen significantly, surpassing levels in Greece and Spain, raising investor concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - The UK’s 30-year bond yield reached a 27-year high due to investor sell-offs, reflecting worries about the UK government's fiscal situation and economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Broader Trends in Bond and Gold Markets - The upward pressure on long-term bond yields is not isolated to the UK and France; countries like the US, Japan, and Germany are experiencing similar trends [2] - Investors are shifting from government bonds to gold, indicating a growing concern over government debt risks, which is prompting a re-evaluation of safe-haven assets [2] - The ongoing bull market for gold has lasted nearly three years, with prices continuing to reach new historical highs, suggesting further upward potential [2]