文 | CFN 大河 年末岁尾，全球货币政策调整进入密集窗口期。12月中旬至19日，俄罗斯、英国、墨西哥、智利四国央行相继宣布降息，形成新一轮全球降息潮。从降息幅 度来看，俄罗斯降幅最大达50个基点，英、墨两国均为25个基点，智利则小幅下调25个基点；从政策延续性来看，俄罗斯为连续第五次降息，墨西哥更是开 启连续第十二次降息周期。这场覆盖欧、美、拉美多个经济体的降息行动，已迅速传导至金融市场，推动贵金属价格大幅飙升，同时引发市场对美联储后续 降息的强烈预期，全球金融市场的资产定价逻辑正迎来重构。 降息潮全景：四国政策联动，节奏与幅度各有差异 本次全球降息潮呈现出"集中落地、梯度推进"的特征，四国央行基于自身经济基本面与通胀态势，选择了差异化的降息节奏与幅度，共同勾勒出当前全球货 币政策宽松转向的清晰轮廓。 作为本次降息潮的收官者，俄罗斯央行于当地时间12月19日宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%，这是其自今年6月开启近三年首次降息以来的第五轮连 续下调。回溯其降息路径，俄罗斯央行从6月的21%高位起步，逐步降至当前16%，累计降息500个基点，政策宽松力度显著。俄央行在声明中强调，11月物 价涨幅持续性指 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, driven by central bank purchases and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to complex global situations [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent jump in gold prices since late August is linked to market speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and rising long-term bond yields in multiple countries due to fiscal sustainability concerns [1] - France's 10-year bond yield has risen significantly, surpassing levels in Greece and Spain, raising investor concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - The UK’s 30-year bond yield reached a 27-year high due to investor sell-offs, reflecting worries about the UK government's fiscal situation and economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Broader Trends in Bond and Gold Markets - The upward pressure on long-term bond yields is not isolated to the UK and France; countries like the US, Japan, and Germany are experiencing similar trends [2] - Investors are shifting from government bonds to gold, indicating a growing concern over government debt risks, which is prompting a re-evaluation of safe-haven assets [2] - The ongoing bull market for gold has lasted nearly three years, with prices continuing to reach new historical highs, suggesting further upward potential [2]