Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that unless trade negotiations or geopolitical relations deteriorate, emerging markets will see capital inflows in the next six months, supported by improved liquidity in H-shares and potential consumption stimulus measures [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to receive support due to a 20% year-on-year increase in industrial profits in August, driven by anti-involution policies in upstream industries [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to focus on enhancing social welfare, potentially leading to structural capital inflows into the stock market [1] - Reforms in household savings, insurance, and private pensions could add approximately 43 trillion RMB in potential investments to the stock market over the next decade, equivalent to 41% of the total market capitalization of A-shares in Q3 this year [1] Group 2: Investment Preferences - Macquarie currently prefers H-shares over A-shares due to quality rotation and IPOs attracting more investor attention to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Despite this preference, the medium-term outlook for A-shares remains positive, as national policy reforms are expected to drive capital inflows [1] - The report favors sectors such as internet and consumer services while avoiding the energy sector and low-beta, high-dividend stocks [1] Group 3: Stock Selection - The report identifies high-beta, high-quality stocks that are relatively undervalued, including BYD (002594), Wuliangye (000858), Anta Sports (02020), and Haidilao (06862) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5]. - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Rise | Oscillating strongly | Wide - range oscillation | Short - term profit - taking intention of funds VS long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 230.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.52 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The newly released credit data is weak, reflecting the weak financing demand of the real sector. Coupled with the weak inflation data in August and the marginal slowdown of the consumption growth rate, the expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in the future is strong, and the policy positive expectation will gradually ferment in the fourth quarter. In terms of funds, the year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits in July and August indicates that the asset allocation direction of social wealth has begun to change, and the stock market attracts incremental funds to flow in; the margin balance also remains high, indicating that leveraged funds are still net buyers. The policy positive expectation and the trend of continuous capital inflow into the stock market still support the stock index in the long and medium term. However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks in the early stage, there is still the intention of profit - taking by profitable funds, which also leads to short - term technical adjustment pressure. The game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations should be focused on [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock indices experienced narrow fluctuations today, with expectations of wider volatility in the short term due to weak credit data and declining consumer growth [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 23,031 billion, a decrease of 2,452 billion compared to the previous day [1] - The financing balance remains high, indicating that leveraged funds are still net buyers [1] Economic Indicators - Recent credit data shows weakness, reflecting insufficient financing demand from the real economy [1] - Poor inflation data from August and slowing consumption growth have increased expectations for demand-stabilizing policies, which are anticipated to gradually manifest in the fourth quarter [1] Investment Trends - The increase in non-bank deposits in July and August year-on-year indicates a shift in social wealth asset allocation towards the stock market [1] - The expectation of policy support and continuous capital inflow into the stock market provides medium to long-term support for stock indices [1] Short-term Outlook - Due to significant valuation increases in some stocks, there is a tendency for profit-taking, leading to potential technical adjustment pressures in the short term [1] - The overall expectation is for stock indices to primarily experience wide fluctuations in the near term [1] Options Market - The implied volatility of options is currently within a normal range, and given the long-term upward trend of stock indices, it is advisable to continue holding bull spreads or ratio spreads [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] - The policy - side positive expectations and the continuous inflow of funds into the stock market are the long - term supporting forces for the stock index. However, in the short term, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still a willingness to take profits, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and sorted. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2548.3 billion yuan, an increase of 83.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Policy - side positive expectations and the continuous inflow of funds into the stock market are the long - term supporting forces for the stock index. The weak inflation data in August means that policies to boost the demand side will continue to be introduced, increasing policy positive expectations [5] - Incremental funds continue to flow into the stock market. The margin balance has exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan and remained at a high level. The large increase in non - bank deposits in July indicates that residents' wealth allocation may shift to the stock market, and the general trend of continuous inflow of incremental funds remains unchanged [5] - In the short term, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still a willingness to take profits, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure. The future trend depends on the game between profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]