Core Viewpoint - UBS warns that the recent rally in the U.S. stock market has gone too far, suggesting investors consider reducing their positions as true risk appetite continues to decline despite surface strength [1][8]. Group 1: Market Indicators - UBS's proprietary "4M Midday Recovery Score," which measures investor risk appetite, has been declining since April, dropping to 9% by June 19, indicating a shift to a neutral stance [2][5]. - The UBS Short Squeeze Index (UBXXSHRT) has seen a significant increase of 43%, but historically, similar conditions have led to average declines of 11% in the S&P 500 and 13% in the Nasdaq over three months [1][6]. Group 2: Fund Flow Dynamics - There has been a consistent outflow of active funds, with retail investors showing net selling on 4 out of the last 5 trading days, and foreign investors also exhibiting net selling through U.S. listed ETFs [8][10]. - UBS anticipates a significant sell-off of up to $56 billion in global equities due to pension and target-date fund rebalancing, with $31 billion targeting international stocks and $25 billion for U.S. stocks [10]. Group 3: Corporate Buybacks and Risks - Corporate stock buybacks are expected to weaken significantly, with projections of a drop to $30 billion next week and further down to $15-20 billion before early August due to companies entering blackout periods [10]. - The report highlights a concerning lack of hedging among major tech stocks, with short positions at a one-year low and put/call ratios at a five-year low, indicating increased risk exposure [12][16].

今日（请补充具体日期），A股市场遭遇大幅调整，三大指数集体下跌，个股呈现普跌态势。截至收 盘，上证指数下跌X%，报XX点；深证成指下跌X%，报XX点；创业板指下跌X%，报XX点。两市超 4000只个股下跌，上涨个股不足500家，市场情绪低迷，成交额较前一交易日（XX亿元）有所萎缩（或 放大），显示投资者观望情绪浓厚。 | 0 16 | 最新 | 涨幅 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3335.75 | -0.46% | -15.56 | | 1A0001 | | | | | 深证成指 | 10504.33 | -0.97% | -103.00 | | 399001 | | | | | 创业板指 | 2103.70 | -1.15% | -24.51 | | 399006 | | | | | 中证A50 | 1573.7568 | -0.75% -11.8762 | | | 930050 | | | | | 沪深300 | 3887.31 | -0.71% | -27.86 | | 1B0300 | | | | | 中证500 | 5857.77 | -0.9 ...