1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - 8 - 10 months are in a headwind period for the bond market, with current sentiment weaker than in March. Short - term advice is to observe more and trade less, and take profit and adjust positions when there is a yield decline window. Mid - term is an adjustment rather than a reversal, so pay attention to opportunities arising from declines [7][10][107]. - Currently, the safety cushion of bank wealth management still exists. In the short term, redemptions may be a small - scale redemption wave at the fund level. If the yield rises to 1.9%, pay attention to the redemption pressure of wealth management [7][10][107]. - The 30 - 10y spread has reached a new high since 2024. Considering the positive effects of the insurance predetermined interest rate cut and "rush to stop sales", gradually allocate during adjustments when the 10y Treasury bond approaches 1.8% and the 30 - 10y spread is around 30bp [7][10][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation 3.1.1 July 2025 Central Bank Balance Sheet Changes - The central bank's balance sheet scale increased from 45.8 trillion yuan to 45.9 trillion yuan, up 16.7 billion yuan. The main increase on the asset side was "claims on other depository corporations", and on the liability side, it was "government deposits", while the main decrease was "deposits of other depository corporations" [15]. - On the asset side, the "claims on other depository corporations" were close to the open - market投放 scale, showing positive liquidity support. The PSL balance has been rapidly decreasing since the beginning of the year, and attention should be paid to the restart of policy - related financial tools. The "claims on the central government" continued to shrink due to the maturity of short - term Treasury bonds [17][18][20]. - On the liability side, due to the large tax - payment month and increased supply, government deposit increments reached a seasonal high. Bank system funds flowed to fiscal deposits, causing the "deposits of other depository corporations" to decline seasonally [23][28]. 3.1.2 Impact of July 2025 Central Bank Operations on Custody Volume - In July, the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. Treasury bond trading remained suspended [32]. - The scale of innovative tools was consistent with the change in the custody volume account. The main incremental varieties were local government bonds and policy - bank bonds, and the main reduction item was Treasury bonds [33]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio: After the Quarter - end, the Funding Situation Eased, and Institutional Leverage Declined Seasonally - In July, after the quarter - end, the funding situation eased, and the average monthly leverage ratio declined seasonally to 107.6%. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased to 7.6 trillion yuan, and the average bond - market leverage ratio decreased from 107.8% to 107.6% [38]. 3.3 By Institution: Allocation - Oriented Investors Increased Positions on Highs, Redemption Drove Funds to Sell Bonds, and Wealth Management Had a Big Bond - Allocation Month 3.3.1 Banks: Large Banks Set a New Monthly Bond - Allocation High, and Rural Commercial Banks Bought 7 - 10y Bonds on Highs - As of July 2025, commercial banks mainly held local government bonds, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they mainly increased positions in interest - rate bonds and reduced positions in certificates of deposit [44][46]. - Large banks' bond - investment scale reached a new high in July. In the primary market, government - bond supply advanced seasonally, and in the secondary market, regulatory pressure eased, and they mainly bought short - term Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit [50]. - Rural commercial banks bought 7 - 10y interest - rate bonds on highs in July. Since mid - August, their bond - buying scale increased again, but their willingness to allocate below 1.75% weakened [54][56]. 3.3.2 Insurance: Bond - Allocation Sentiment Was Good Since July, and Attention Should Be Paid to Structural Opportunities from the Predetermined Interest Rate Cut - As of July 2025, insurance companies mainly held local government bonds, credit bonds, and Treasury bonds. They increased positions in local government bonds and certificates of deposit in July [59][60]. - The predetermined interest rate of insurance products will be officially lowered in September. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the 30 - 10y spread, and gradually allocate during adjustments [67]. 3.3.3 General Funds: Redemption Pressure Drove Funds to Sell Bonds, and Wealth Management Had a Seasonal Bond - Allocation Month - As of July 2025, general funds mainly held credit bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they increased positions in credit bonds and reduced positions in interest - rate bonds [69][74]. - Funds faced increased redemption pressure in July and mainly sold 7 - 10y Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and certificates of deposit. After August 18, the redemption wave restarted, and historically, the 10y Treasury bond usually peaked within 5 trading days after the start of redemptions [79]. - Bank wealth management had a bond - allocation month driven by liabilities, but some "front - running" behaviors overdrew the seasonal bond - allocation demand [81]. 3.3.4 Foreign Investors: The Comprehensive Yield of Investing in Certificates of Deposit Decreased, and the Net Outflow Speed Accelerated - As of July 2025, foreign institutions mainly held Treasury bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they mainly reduced positions in certificates of deposit, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds [85][92]. 3.4 By Bond Type: The Main Support for the Increment of Bond - Market Custody Volume Was Government Bonds, and the Main Reduction Item Was Certificates of Deposit - In July, the increment of the bond - market custody volume increased, with government bonds as the main support and certificates of deposit as the main reduction item. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased from 1.7067 trillion yuan to 1.5334 trillion yuan [94][99]. - For Treasury bonds, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing scale declined. For local government bonds, the issuance scale increased, and the net financing scale increased. For policy - bank bonds, the supply rhythm was relatively stable, and the net financing scale changed little [99][100]. - For certificates of deposit, after the quarter - end, the funding situation was loose, and bank liability pressure was limited, resulting in negative net financing [104].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The logic of "buying on every dip" in the bond market still holds as the logic supporting the long - term bull market in the bond market remains intact. The future outlook is long - term bullish but short - term bottom - grinding [1][2][20]. - The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market. The consensus of a slow - bull market in equities is strengthening, leading to more frequent bond market adjustments and redemption tides [1][8]. - The redemption risk index rose to 62 on August 18, indicating the risk of a redemption tide. Although the fund selling sentiment was strong in July, the active purchase by rural commercial banks and insurance companies effectively alleviated market pressure. It is expected that the scale of wealth management products will not be significantly negatively affected this time. If the 10Y Treasury yield touches 1.8% due to unexpected performance in the equity market, core buyers such as banks and insurance companies may enter the market, and investors can consider right - side allocation at this point [1][9][14]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. August Redemption Tide Returns - On August 18, the A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly a decade, triggering a bond market adjustment and bond fund redemptions. The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market [8]. - A comprehensive redemption risk index was constructed. On August 18, the index rose to 62, mainly affected by bond fund redemptions, equity market rises, high - valuation transactions of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and tightened liquidity [9]. 2. When Will the Redemption Tide Market Reach the Right Side? - In terms of time, the median duration of historical redemption tides is 6 - 7 trading days. Although the market slightly recovered on August 19, the redemption risk index has been triggered, and the redemption disturbance may last for 4 - 5 days [14]. - In terms of adjustment range, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 4bp on August 18 and fell 1bp on August 19, currently reaching about half of the adjustment range of small - scale redemption tides since 2023. The 1.8% level of the 10Y Treasury yield is a key observation point [14]. - The main sellers are funds and securities firms. On August 19, funds net - sold 126.6 billion yuan of bonds. In July, rural commercial banks and insurance companies actively bought bonds, and currently, wealth management products are still net buyers [14]. - The core factors for the end of the redemption tide include equity market adjustments and weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect, central bank liquidity support, and self - repair of the market after reaching a certain adjustment level [15][16]. 3. Is the Logic of "Buying on Every Dip" Subverted? - The long - term bull market in the bond market is supported by factors such as weak economic recovery, declining income and employment expectations, long - term asset shortage, real estate bubble burst, fiscal tightening of general urban investment, moderately loose monetary policy, and difficulties in bank credit issuance [2][21]. - From the perspective of credit and bank fund flow, the high correlation between social financing credit and the bond market remains. Weak financing demand in general urban investment and real estate leads to weak credit growth, causing bank funds to flow into the bond market, making it difficult for the bond bull market to reverse. In July, the new credit in the social financing scale was - 426.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 345.5 billion yuan [2][22]. - From a technical perspective, the long - term interest rate is currently in a relatively right - side position, with good odds and relatively high winning probabilities. However, the liquidity of credit products is relatively weak, and a clearer right - side opportunity is still awaited. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side of this adjustment, take profits moderately, and maintain a defensive position [2][26].