01 华泰张继强：新开局下的叙事与主线【把握2026投资机会】 15:00-16:00 核心看点： AI投资热潮会否迎来关键验证？全球"财政扩张+货币配合"将如何搅动市场？国内新旧 动能转换能否进入"右侧开花结果"？明年我们能否等来企业盈利的实质性改善？ 嘉宾： 张继强丨华泰证券研究所所长，总量研究负责人，固收首席分析师 扫码预约 02 中金陈健恒：中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更为确定 16:00-17:00 核心看点 ： 聚焦三大核心驱动力：出口放量，核电资本开支加速与技术升级，以及AI数据中心用电 结构变革。 嘉宾： 廖启华丨瑞银大中华区能源转型及新能源行业研究主管 严亦舒丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 利林海丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 徐宾丨瑞银证券中国研究部总监 核心看点： 中美新老经济分化加剧，股牛和债牛并不对立。全球财政政策持续宽松后，面临制约的 情况下，货币政策有望接力放松，且全球货币政策空间依然较为充足。中国今年在贸易顺差和财政 赤字创新高的情况下，经济和股市有支撑，明年这两个因素的同比拉动减弱，债券利率将重新加快 回落速度。在全球贸易和地缘和各国政策摩擦性增加的情况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, treasury bond futures are expected to continue their strength and remain in a favorable window period. Market expectations for further monetary policy easing in Q4, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, have boosted market sentiment. [8] - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the marginal decline in the effectiveness of land finance and debt - driven economic growth, and new growth drivers still in the cultivation stage, combined with potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The synergy of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and the low - interest - rate environment is crucial for policy implementation. The logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue. [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints - **Market Performance**: Last week, treasury bond futures contracts of different maturities showed mixed gains and losses with limited fluctuations. [4] - **Policy Impact**: The Q3 monetary policy implementation report indicates a possible marginal loosening of the monetary policy tone, reducing the probability of liquidity disturbances. The central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases on November 17, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan after offsetting maturities. [4] - **Macro Data**: Some financial data indicators showed a slowdown in growth, slightly lower than seasonal performance. The financing demand of the household sector remained weak, and corporate bill - padding was significant. The peak of local government bond issuance has passed, and its support for social financing has weakened marginally. [4] Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: The report presents data on the volume and price of open - market operations, including reverse repurchases and medium - term lending facilities (MLF), as well as their historical trends. [10][11][13] - **Funding Costs**: It shows various funding cost indicators such as deposit - based pledged repo rates, SHIBOR, and Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repo rates, along with their historical trends. [20] - **Yield Spreads**: The report includes information on treasury bond yield spreads, US treasury bond yield spreads, and their historical trends. [35][37][39] Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Basis and Net Basis**: It provides data on the basis and net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, along with their historical trends. [45][53][54] - **IRR and Implied Interest Rate**: The report shows the implied repo rate (IRR) and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, along with their historical trends. [60][66][67]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence between new and old economies in both China and the United States, highlighting the impact of AI on investment and employment, as well as the implications for financial markets and economic stability moving into 2026 [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Divergence - The global economy is experiencing a structural change characterized by the rapid growth of AI-driven high-tech industries, while traditional sectors like real estate and consumption face challenges [4][6]. - In the U.S., the "three highs" (high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages) are pressuring the economy and leading to a decline in corporate profits and economic activity [17][20]. - China's economy is supported by record trade surpluses and fiscal deficits in 2025, but these factors are expected to face constraints in 2026, potentially weakening economic support [4][6]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Global fiscal policies are under increasing constraints, necessitating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies to alleviate debt interest pressures [4][6]. - The article anticipates that both the U.S. and China will likely see limited fiscal policy enhancements, with a greater probability of accelerated monetary easing [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The stock market is reflecting the strength of the new economy, particularly in AI-related sectors, while the bond market is indicative of the weakening traditional economy [6][8]. - The article suggests that the bond bull market is more certain compared to the stock bull market, as bond yields are expected to decline significantly by the end of 2026 [4][6]. Group 4: Real Estate and Investment Trends - In China, the real estate sector continues to experience downward pressure, with new construction and sales areas declining, which is expected to impact overall economic growth [94][97]. - The article notes that the investment growth rate in real estate has reached historical lows, indicating a significant drag on the economy [97][99]. - The new economy in China, while showing some breakthroughs, still constitutes a small portion of the overall economy, with traditional sectors remaining dominant [91][93].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.43% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, while the US markets saw slight gains, particularly the Nasdaq which rose by 0.61% [1][3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 8.719 billion, with Xiaomi, Meituan, and 3SBio leading in net purchases, while Tencent and SMIC experienced significant net sales [3] Economic Insights - China's manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since 2008, indicating a further slowdown in economic activity for Q4, with expectations of policy easing from the central bank [4] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with a 16.3% year-on-year decline in sales for the top 100 property companies from January to October, and a further drop in second-hand housing prices [4] Industry Analysis - The CIS market is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2024, reaching USD 23 billion, driven by the adoption of automotive ADAS and emerging applications like smart glasses [4][5] - The competitive landscape in the CIS industry is becoming more concentrated, with leaders like Sony pushing technological boundaries while competitors like Samsung focus on high-resolution solutions [5] Company Performance - Amazon reported Q3 2025 revenue of USD 180.2 billion, a 13.4% year-on-year increase, with AWS revenue exceeding expectations [6] - Coinbase's Q3 2025 revenue grew by 59% year-on-year to USD 1.79 billion, driven by strong trading performance [6] - Zhongji Xuchuang achieved record quarterly revenue of RMB 10.2 billion, a 57% year-on-year increase, supported by strong demand for 800G optical modules [7]

Group 1 - The main theme of the recent bond market recovery is chip trading, characterized by rapid widening of bond spreads and subsequent dispersion of chips, leading to a weak overall profit effect in the market [1] - As time progresses, the cost-effectiveness of re-trading decreases due to the approaching "expiration option" points of monetary easing events and TACO trading [1][2] - The bond market is expected to face weak supply and weak demand, with institutions likely reallocating towards low-risk, long-duration products due to increased risk appetite among residents [3] Group 2 - The current economic growth structure reflects a reduction in growth momentum, limited traditional incremental policies, and a projected GDP growth rate around 5%, indicating a form of "high-quality development" rather than traditional weakness [2] - The pricing power of bond market institutions is shifting, with a significant reduction in public fund participation compared to earlier in the year, leading to a more neutral strategy among brokers [2] - The relationship between the bond market and the technology sector is becoming clearer, with liquidity-driven bull markets in both sectors, although the marginal impact of liquidity easing is weakening [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, Trump's statement on imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products and implementing export controls on "all key software" is positive for the bond market. Bond futures will enter a short - term repair window, with US Nasdaq down 3.56%, China Golden Dragon Index down 6.1%, crude oil down 5%, copper down about 4%, and US Treasury yields down 1 - 2bp across all tenors, and gold performing well. On Saturday, spot bond yields across all tenors declined, with the 30 - year active bond yield down more than 5bp [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. In the new normal stage where the marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth are declining, the balance sheets of residents and enterprises are under pressure, and new economic growth drivers are still being cultivated. Coupled with the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and the low - interest - rate environment is a key part of policy implementation. The logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints - **Weekly Market Review**: This week had only two trading days, with the market rising first and then falling, and the volatility increasing. On Thursday, bond futures recovered significantly. On one hand, the National Day consumption data was mediocre, with the growth rate of cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day holiday slower than that of the May Day holiday, and the box office during the National Day holiday down 19.2% year - on - year. On the other hand, the Hong Kong stock market declined slightly during the National Day, and the unexpected shutdown of the US government may have led to a decrease in risk appetite, helping bond futures continue the pre - National Day recovery trend. On Friday, the market weakened again, with both stocks and bonds falling. The issuance of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds falling slightly short of expectations may be a negative factor, and the main factor driving the decline of bonds on Friday may be the stock market slump and the redemption of "fixed income +" products, leading to a reduction in bond positions [4]. - **Weekly Performance of Bond Futures**: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, weekly trading volumes, changes in weekly trading volumes, weekly open interests, and changes in weekly open interests of multiple bond futures contracts such as TL2512.CFE, TL2603.CFE, etc. For example, TL2512.CFE closed at 113.970, down 0.19% for the week, with a weekly trading volume of 20,551,300, a decrease of 47,287,900 from the previous week, and an open interest of 147,131, a decrease of 282 [5]. 3.2 Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents various aspects of liquidity tracking, including open - market operations (both in terms of quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (both in terms of quantity and price), capital prices (such as deposit - based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond - based pledged repurchase rates), and the spreads between different interest rates. It also shows the data of MLF maturity volume, policy rates, and market rates, as well as the deposit reserve ratio and LPR [10][12][18]. 3.3 Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report tracks multiple arbitrage indicators of Treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts [44][52][59][65].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the last week of August, with limited incremental news and a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the bond market maintained a volatile trend. The central bank protected liquidity, and cross - month funds were relatively stable. Most major - term varieties showed slight recoveries, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 2.5bp to 1.35% [3][12] - In terms of fundamentals and monetary policy, although the probability of further weakening of economic data is not low, the bond market still faces significant adjustment pressure. According to seasonal patterns, September usually has the weakest market performance, with a yield decline probability of only 17% in the past six years. From the end of August to the peak, the adjustment was 5.25bp - 13bp, and the median adjustment to the September central level was 2.59bp. However, if the 10Y Treasury rate further breaks through to 1.8%, it will return to the cost - pricing framework above OMO + 40bp, and the allocation portfolio will gradually have cost - effectiveness [6] - Given that the central bank's actions will dominate the bond market trend in September, if the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases in September, the pressure on the money market may continue to affect market sentiment. Currently, using a barbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best strategy [6] - Looking at the second half of the year, with the Fed likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, combined with weak domestic demand and the global trend of returning to interest rate cuts, the expectation of double - rate cuts may increase in mid - to - late August. For the second half of the year, the bond market may experience a strong downward trend from August to September. It is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration, and the 30 - year variety, which has performed weakly recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [35] Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - In the last week of August, with limited incremental news and a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the bond market maintained a volatile trend. The central bank protected liquidity, and cross - month funds were relatively stable. Most major - term varieties showed slight recoveries, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 2.5bp to 1.35% [3][12] - In terms of interest - rate bonds, the 1 - year yield remained stable at 1.37%, while the yields of 3 - year and above increased by 3 - 5bp, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields rising 4bp and 3bp to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively. The trend of policy - bank bonds was similar to that of Treasuries, with the yields of each term decreasing by about 2 - 3bp [15] - In the credit - bond market, medium - and long - term varieties were under pressure. On the implied AA + urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 3bp, 8bp, and 9bp respectively, with the yields of 3 - year and above generally returning above 2.0%. On the AAA - secondary capital bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 4bp, 6bp, and 7bp respectively, with the adjustment amplitudes of the 3 - year and 5 - year yields larger than those of the same - term policy - bank bond varieties [15] Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, local bonds were issued at 369.2 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 201.3 billion yuan, including 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 239.3 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 68 billion yuan of special special bonds), 95.8 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 24.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20] - Treasury bonds were issued at 392.7 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 352.6 billion yuan, including 83.1 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20] - Policy - bank bonds were issued at 164 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 162 billion yuan [20] - Specific issuance details of some interest - rate bonds are provided in the table, including various Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds, with information on trading codes, bond names, issuance scales, issuance terms, and coupon rates [19] Funds Market Situation - With the central bank's liquidity injection, the money market during the tax period remained stable. Under the central bank's protection, cross - month interest rates were relatively stable. The weekly averages of R001 and DR001 decreased significantly compared to the previous week (tax period), dropping 13bp and 14bp respectively, DR007 also decreased by 1bp, and R007 increased slightly due to cross - month effects, with the weekly average rising 1bp [26] - This week, the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45% respectively, changing by - 5bp and + 3.8bp compared to the previous week; the overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28% respectively, changing by - 43.1bp and - 36.2bp compared to the previous week [26] - Affected by the tightening of the money market during the tax period, most certificate of deposit yields increased. The 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year yields increased by 3bp, 2bp, and 3bp respectively, reaching 1.55%, 1.61%, and 1.67%. The weighted issuance period extended to 8.1 months, compared to 6.4 months in the previous week. As the money market tightened more than expected during the tax period, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, with the average trading volume dropping from 8.15 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.13 trillion yuan [29] China Bond Market Macro Environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has remained below 100 in the past week. With the continuous global "de - dollarization" trend, the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate, closing below 7.18 on Friday. Looking forward to the second half of the year, under the "moderately loose" monetary policy tone, the central bank may maintain a loose stance [34] - This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 4.95 billion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 0.2 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases, a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan from outright reverse repurchases, and a net withdrawal of 0.1 trillion yuan from treasury deposits at banks [34] - In terms of fundamentals, in July, CPI year - on - year growth was 0, higher than the expected - 0.1%, and the commodity retail sub - items showed varying degrees of recovery; PPI year - on - year was - 3.6%, remaining in a sluggish state, indicating that price recovery still faces significant pressure. Meanwhile, credit data is to be released in the coming week. Considering the decline in the cumulative transfer discount scale of large - scale banks in July and the return of the end - of - month bill rate to zero, the social financing data for July may not be optimistic [35] - In terms of monetary policy, due to insufficient effective economic demand, the loose monetary policy will continue. In terms of exchange rates, as the Japanese yen and the euro strengthen, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, and the pressure on RMB depreciation is relatively controllable in the short term. Therefore, external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term. For the second half of the year, the monetary policy still needs to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and liquidity is likely to remain loose. Currently, the periodic tightness of liquidity may be mainly caused by institutional expectations [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The logic of "buying on every dip" in the bond market still holds as the logic supporting the long - term bull market in the bond market remains intact. The future outlook is long - term bullish but short - term bottom - grinding [1][2][20]. - The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market. The consensus of a slow - bull market in equities is strengthening, leading to more frequent bond market adjustments and redemption tides [1][8]. - The redemption risk index rose to 62 on August 18, indicating the risk of a redemption tide. Although the fund selling sentiment was strong in July, the active purchase by rural commercial banks and insurance companies effectively alleviated market pressure. It is expected that the scale of wealth management products will not be significantly negatively affected this time. If the 10Y Treasury yield touches 1.8% due to unexpected performance in the equity market, core buyers such as banks and insurance companies may enter the market, and investors can consider right - side allocation at this point [1][9][14]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. August Redemption Tide Returns - On August 18, the A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly a decade, triggering a bond market adjustment and bond fund redemptions. The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market [8]. - A comprehensive redemption risk index was constructed. On August 18, the index rose to 62, mainly affected by bond fund redemptions, equity market rises, high - valuation transactions of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and tightened liquidity [9]. 2. When Will the Redemption Tide Market Reach the Right Side? - In terms of time, the median duration of historical redemption tides is 6 - 7 trading days. Although the market slightly recovered on August 19, the redemption risk index has been triggered, and the redemption disturbance may last for 4 - 5 days [14]. - In terms of adjustment range, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 4bp on August 18 and fell 1bp on August 19, currently reaching about half of the adjustment range of small - scale redemption tides since 2023. The 1.8% level of the 10Y Treasury yield is a key observation point [14]. - The main sellers are funds and securities firms. On August 19, funds net - sold 126.6 billion yuan of bonds. In July, rural commercial banks and insurance companies actively bought bonds, and currently, wealth management products are still net buyers [14]. - The core factors for the end of the redemption tide include equity market adjustments and weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect, central bank liquidity support, and self - repair of the market after reaching a certain adjustment level [15][16]. 3. Is the Logic of "Buying on Every Dip" Subverted? - The long - term bull market in the bond market is supported by factors such as weak economic recovery, declining income and employment expectations, long - term asset shortage, real estate bubble burst, fiscal tightening of general urban investment, moderately loose monetary policy, and difficulties in bank credit issuance [2][21]. - From the perspective of credit and bank fund flow, the high correlation between social financing credit and the bond market remains. Weak financing demand in general urban investment and real estate leads to weak credit growth, causing bank funds to flow into the bond market, making it difficult for the bond bull market to reverse. In July, the new credit in the social financing scale was - 426.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 345.5 billion yuan [2][22]. - From a technical perspective, the long - term interest rate is currently in a relatively right - side position, with good odds and relatively high winning probabilities. However, the liquidity of credit products is relatively weak, and a clearer right - side opportunity is still awaited. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side of this adjustment, take profits moderately, and maintain a defensive position [2][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the pressure of the stock market on the bond market may be nearing its end, as the recent stock market rally is not supported by fundamental data improvements but rather by confidence in state intervention [2][26] - The stock market's upward movement has two main effects on the bond market: the "water extraction effect" which reduces liquidity in the bond market, and the enhancement of market risk appetite, which can suppress bond market sentiment [20][29] - The recent stock market rally has led to a significant increase in financing balances, suggesting a peak in equity speculation sentiment, with potential for a market correction in the coming weeks [26][30] Group 2 - There is an expectation that interest rate cuts may gain traction, driven by weak demand reflected in low PPI figures and anticipated disappointing credit data [3][29] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a notable rebound in credit bonds and short-duration government bonds, while the sentiment in the bond market is gradually improving [7][13] - The upcoming weeks are critical for the bond market, with a focus on financial data releases and the evolution of Sino-US relations, which could impact market dynamics [16][30] Group 3 - The government bond issuance schedule is slowing down, with planned issuance significantly reduced compared to the previous week, indicating a potential shift in supply dynamics [62] - The issuance of local government bonds has also seen a decrease, with a notable increase in net issuance, reflecting ongoing fiscal strategies [65][66] - The overall bond market is expected to experience a "bond bull" phase in August and September, suggesting a favorable environment for extending portfolio durations [5][30]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Recent fluctuations in treasury futures are driven by macroeconomic data and policy changes, with the Ministry of Finance announcing the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, leading to increased demand for older bonds [1] - Domestic economic resilience is evident, with a rising risk appetite in the A-share market and the central bank maintaining ample liquidity, while the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, causing upward momentum in treasury futures to weaken [1] Group 2: Trade Performance - In July 2025, China's total import and export volume reached $545.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with exports at $321.78 billion, up 7.2%, outperforming market expectations [2] - The increase in exports is attributed to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, leading to a "rush to export" effect, particularly with accelerated growth in exports to the EU, South Korea, Taiwan, and Belt and Road countries, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. [2] Group 3: Import Dynamics - Import growth continued to rebound in July, driven by rising prices of bulk commodities, with the CRB index increasing from 3.5% in June to 6.0% year-on-year, positively impacting both import volume and value [3] - The decline in imports from the U.S. narrowed from 15.5% to 10.3%, indicating a slight alleviation of the overall import pressure [3] Group 4: Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with a slight decrease in the growth rate compared to June, while the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024 [4] - Food prices showed a moderate improvement, with the year-on-year growth rate of fresh vegetables and pork prices contributing to a downward adjustment in CPI [4] Group 5: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July, consistent with June, reflecting low construction industry sentiment and price pressures in export-oriented sectors due to international trade uncertainties [5] - Recent government meetings emphasized maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, indicating that the foundation for a "bull market" in bonds remains solid, although upward momentum in the bond market may weaken due to economic resilience and commodity price recovery [5]