Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the last week of August, with limited incremental news and a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the bond market maintained a volatile trend. The central bank protected liquidity, and cross - month funds were relatively stable. Most major - term varieties showed slight recoveries, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 2.5bp to 1.35% [3][12] - In terms of fundamentals and monetary policy, although the probability of further weakening of economic data is not low, the bond market still faces significant adjustment pressure. According to seasonal patterns, September usually has the weakest market performance, with a yield decline probability of only 17% in the past six years. From the end of August to the peak, the adjustment was 5.25bp - 13bp, and the median adjustment to the September central level was 2.59bp. However, if the 10Y Treasury rate further breaks through to 1.8%, it will return to the cost - pricing framework above OMO + 40bp, and the allocation portfolio will gradually have cost - effectiveness [6] - Given that the central bank's actions will dominate the bond market trend in September, if the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases in September, the pressure on the money market may continue to affect market sentiment. Currently, using a barbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best strategy [6] - Looking at the second half of the year, with the Fed likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, combined with weak domestic demand and the global trend of returning to interest rate cuts, the expectation of double - rate cuts may increase in mid - to - late August. For the second half of the year, the bond market may experience a strong downward trend from August to September. It is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration, and the 30 - year variety, which has performed weakly recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [35] Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - In the last week of August, with limited incremental news and a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the bond market maintained a volatile trend. The central bank protected liquidity, and cross - month funds were relatively stable. Most major - term varieties showed slight recoveries, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 2.5bp to 1.35% [3][12] - In terms of interest - rate bonds, the 1 - year yield remained stable at 1.37%, while the yields of 3 - year and above increased by 3 - 5bp, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields rising 4bp and 3bp to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively. The trend of policy - bank bonds was similar to that of Treasuries, with the yields of each term decreasing by about 2 - 3bp [15] - In the credit - bond market, medium - and long - term varieties were under pressure. On the implied AA + urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 3bp, 8bp, and 9bp respectively, with the yields of 3 - year and above generally returning above 2.0%. On the AAA - secondary capital bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 4bp, 6bp, and 7bp respectively, with the adjustment amplitudes of the 3 - year and 5 - year yields larger than those of the same - term policy - bank bond varieties [15] Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, local bonds were issued at 369.2 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 201.3 billion yuan, including 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 239.3 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 68 billion yuan of special special bonds), 95.8 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 24.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20] - Treasury bonds were issued at 392.7 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 352.6 billion yuan, including 83.1 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20] - Policy - bank bonds were issued at 164 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 162 billion yuan [20] - Specific issuance details of some interest - rate bonds are provided in the table, including various Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds, with information on trading codes, bond names, issuance scales, issuance terms, and coupon rates [19] Funds Market Situation - With the central bank's liquidity injection, the money market during the tax period remained stable. Under the central bank's protection, cross - month interest rates were relatively stable. The weekly averages of R001 and DR001 decreased significantly compared to the previous week (tax period), dropping 13bp and 14bp respectively, DR007 also decreased by 1bp, and R007 increased slightly due to cross - month effects, with the weekly average rising 1bp [26] - This week, the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45% respectively, changing by - 5bp and + 3.8bp compared to the previous week; the overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28% respectively, changing by - 43.1bp and - 36.2bp compared to the previous week [26] - Affected by the tightening of the money market during the tax period, most certificate of deposit yields increased. The 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year yields increased by 3bp, 2bp, and 3bp respectively, reaching 1.55%, 1.61%, and 1.67%. The weighted issuance period extended to 8.1 months, compared to 6.4 months in the previous week. As the money market tightened more than expected during the tax period, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, with the average trading volume dropping from 8.15 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.13 trillion yuan [29] China Bond Market Macro Environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has remained below 100 in the past week. With the continuous global "de - dollarization" trend, the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate, closing below 7.18 on Friday. Looking forward to the second half of the year, under the "moderately loose" monetary policy tone, the central bank may maintain a loose stance [34] - This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 4.95 billion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 0.2 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases, a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan from outright reverse repurchases, and a net withdrawal of 0.1 trillion yuan from treasury deposits at banks [34] - In terms of fundamentals, in July, CPI year - on - year growth was 0, higher than the expected - 0.1%, and the commodity retail sub - items showed varying degrees of recovery; PPI year - on - year was - 3.6%, remaining in a sluggish state, indicating that price recovery still faces significant pressure. Meanwhile, credit data is to be released in the coming week. Considering the decline in the cumulative transfer discount scale of large - scale banks in July and the return of the end - of - month bill rate to zero, the social financing data for July may not be optimistic [35] - In terms of monetary policy, due to insufficient effective economic demand, the loose monetary policy will continue. In terms of exchange rates, as the Japanese yen and the euro strengthen, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, and the pressure on RMB depreciation is relatively controllable in the short term. Therefore, external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term. For the second half of the year, the monetary policy still needs to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and liquidity is likely to remain loose. Currently, the periodic tightness of liquidity may be mainly caused by institutional expectations [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The logic of "buying on every dip" in the bond market still holds as the logic supporting the long - term bull market in the bond market remains intact. The future outlook is long - term bullish but short - term bottom - grinding [1][2][20]. - The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market. The consensus of a slow - bull market in equities is strengthening, leading to more frequent bond market adjustments and redemption tides [1][8]. - The redemption risk index rose to 62 on August 18, indicating the risk of a redemption tide. Although the fund selling sentiment was strong in July, the active purchase by rural commercial banks and insurance companies effectively alleviated market pressure. It is expected that the scale of wealth management products will not be significantly negatively affected this time. If the 10Y Treasury yield touches 1.8% due to unexpected performance in the equity market, core buyers such as banks and insurance companies may enter the market, and investors can consider right - side allocation at this point [1][9][14]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. August Redemption Tide Returns - On August 18, the A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly a decade, triggering a bond market adjustment and bond fund redemptions. The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market [8]. - A comprehensive redemption risk index was constructed. On August 18, the index rose to 62, mainly affected by bond fund redemptions, equity market rises, high - valuation transactions of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and tightened liquidity [9]. 2. When Will the Redemption Tide Market Reach the Right Side? - In terms of time, the median duration of historical redemption tides is 6 - 7 trading days. Although the market slightly recovered on August 19, the redemption risk index has been triggered, and the redemption disturbance may last for 4 - 5 days [14]. - In terms of adjustment range, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 4bp on August 18 and fell 1bp on August 19, currently reaching about half of the adjustment range of small - scale redemption tides since 2023. The 1.8% level of the 10Y Treasury yield is a key observation point [14]. - The main sellers are funds and securities firms. On August 19, funds net - sold 126.6 billion yuan of bonds. In July, rural commercial banks and insurance companies actively bought bonds, and currently, wealth management products are still net buyers [14]. - The core factors for the end of the redemption tide include equity market adjustments and weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect, central bank liquidity support, and self - repair of the market after reaching a certain adjustment level [15][16]. 3. Is the Logic of "Buying on Every Dip" Subverted? - The long - term bull market in the bond market is supported by factors such as weak economic recovery, declining income and employment expectations, long - term asset shortage, real estate bubble burst, fiscal tightening of general urban investment, moderately loose monetary policy, and difficulties in bank credit issuance [2][21]. - From the perspective of credit and bank fund flow, the high correlation between social financing credit and the bond market remains. Weak financing demand in general urban investment and real estate leads to weak credit growth, causing bank funds to flow into the bond market, making it difficult for the bond bull market to reverse. In July, the new credit in the social financing scale was - 426.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 345.5 billion yuan [2][22]. - From a technical perspective, the long - term interest rate is currently in a relatively right - side position, with good odds and relatively high winning probabilities. However, the liquidity of credit products is relatively weak, and a clearer right - side opportunity is still awaited. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side of this adjustment, take profits moderately, and maintain a defensive position [2][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the pressure of the stock market on the bond market may be nearing its end, as the recent stock market rally is not supported by fundamental data improvements but rather by confidence in state intervention [2][26] - The stock market's upward movement has two main effects on the bond market: the "water extraction effect" which reduces liquidity in the bond market, and the enhancement of market risk appetite, which can suppress bond market sentiment [20][29] - The recent stock market rally has led to a significant increase in financing balances, suggesting a peak in equity speculation sentiment, with potential for a market correction in the coming weeks [26][30] Group 2 - There is an expectation that interest rate cuts may gain traction, driven by weak demand reflected in low PPI figures and anticipated disappointing credit data [3][29] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a notable rebound in credit bonds and short-duration government bonds, while the sentiment in the bond market is gradually improving [7][13] - The upcoming weeks are critical for the bond market, with a focus on financial data releases and the evolution of Sino-US relations, which could impact market dynamics [16][30] Group 3 - The government bond issuance schedule is slowing down, with planned issuance significantly reduced compared to the previous week, indicating a potential shift in supply dynamics [62] - The issuance of local government bonds has also seen a decrease, with a notable increase in net issuance, reflecting ongoing fiscal strategies [65][66] - The overall bond market is expected to experience a "bond bull" phase in August and September, suggesting a favorable environment for extending portfolio durations [5][30]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Recent fluctuations in treasury futures are driven by macroeconomic data and policy changes, with the Ministry of Finance announcing the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, leading to increased demand for older bonds [1] - Domestic economic resilience is evident, with a rising risk appetite in the A-share market and the central bank maintaining ample liquidity, while the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, causing upward momentum in treasury futures to weaken [1] Group 2: Trade Performance - In July 2025, China's total import and export volume reached $545.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with exports at $321.78 billion, up 7.2%, outperforming market expectations [2] - The increase in exports is attributed to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, leading to a "rush to export" effect, particularly with accelerated growth in exports to the EU, South Korea, Taiwan, and Belt and Road countries, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. [2] Group 3: Import Dynamics - Import growth continued to rebound in July, driven by rising prices of bulk commodities, with the CRB index increasing from 3.5% in June to 6.0% year-on-year, positively impacting both import volume and value [3] - The decline in imports from the U.S. narrowed from 15.5% to 10.3%, indicating a slight alleviation of the overall import pressure [3] Group 4: Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with a slight decrease in the growth rate compared to June, while the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024 [4] - Food prices showed a moderate improvement, with the year-on-year growth rate of fresh vegetables and pork prices contributing to a downward adjustment in CPI [4] Group 5: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July, consistent with June, reflecting low construction industry sentiment and price pressures in export-oriented sectors due to international trade uncertainties [5] - Recent government meetings emphasized maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, indicating that the foundation for a "bull market" in bonds remains solid, although upward momentum in the bond market may weaken due to economic resilience and commodity price recovery [5]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 配置盘可以看收益率逢高增持 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 11 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | 转债合理回调，看多逻辑不变：可转债市 场周观察 2025-08-04 信用债正在进入调整后的配置窗口期：信 用债市场周观察 2025-08-04 北交所打新：适合"固收+"的低回撤增厚 策略：固定收益市场周观察 2025-08-04 有关分析师 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market remains strong, driven by the central bank's unexpected interest rate cuts, leading to increased investor sentiment and historical highs in bond futures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 1, the 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.31% to 111.55, while the 10-year futures increased by 0.14% to 106.27, reaching an intraday high of 106.36, marking a historical peak [2]. - The yields on long-term government bonds have significantly decreased, with the 30-year bond yield dropping to 2.3570% and the 10-year bond yield falling to 2.1250%, the lowest since April 2002 [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The central bank's recent actions include the first reduction of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and subsequent cuts to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and Standing Lending Facility (SLF) rates, which have contributed to the bond market's strength [2]. - Following these rate cuts, the central bank also conducted operations to lower the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate, leading to a new round of deposit rate reductions [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that despite the current strength in the bond market, there are risks due to insufficient risk appetite in the real economy, which may affect future performance [3]. - Analysts indicate that the reduction in deposit rates could lead to an expansion in wealth management products, providing strong buying support for the bond market [3]. - There are concerns regarding the potential impact of the central bank's borrowing and selling of government bonds on market expectations, particularly if the yield curve flattens excessively [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experiencing declines of 1.18% and 1.82% respectively, while the bond market is showing signs of recovery [2][4] - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, indicating a marginal economic slowdown, which has further pressured market risk appetite and bolstered bond market sentiment [4][5] - Institutional confidence is gradually recovering, with funds returning to the bond market, particularly into balanced and index bond funds, suggesting a potential acceleration of the bond bull market [5][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 42.51 points or 1.18%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4075.59, down 75.65 points or 1.82% [1] - The bond market saw a slight increase in the 7-10 year national development bond index, which rose by 0.12% [1] Market Adjustments - The equity market is undergoing a correction phase, with significant outflows from stock ETFs totaling 25.3 billion yuan since July 24, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment [7] - The afternoon session saw a notable decline in the market following concerns over Nvidia's chip safety issues, which affected risk appetite [6][9] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the bond bull market may be entering an accelerated phase, with a focus on long-duration bonds as institutional investors show renewed interest [5] - The ongoing adjustments in U.S.-China trade relations are expected to influence market expectations, potentially driving funds back to safe-haven assets like bonds [5][6]

Group 1 - The bond market showed signs of recovery as of July 28, with the 10-year bond yield at 1.715%, down 1.75bps, and the 30-year bond yield at 1.9225%, down 2.50bps, following a period of panic-driven yield increases due to tightening liquidity [1] - The 10-year government bond rate briefly reached a critical level of 1.75% last Friday, but with a 10bps rate cut this year, the acceptable high point for the 10-year rate is around 1.8%, indicating a ceiling in the current market [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the need for better coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, indicating a continued accommodative stance on monetary policy, which is favorable for the bond market [1] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to face a new round of predetermined interest rate cuts, making the current yield levels of 30-year government bonds attractive for allocation [2] - Investors are advised to seize short-term fluctuations for allocation opportunities, particularly focusing on long-duration assets like the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [2]

Core Insights - The growth of foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management companies in China has been notable, with firms like BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture surpassing 500 billion yuan in total assets, and the former exceeding 600 billion yuan in July [1][3] - In contrast, many domestic wealth management companies experienced a decline in scale in June, attributed to a recovering stock market and low bond yields [1][3] - Fixed income assets are crucial for institutions to expand their scale, especially in a low-interest-rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from around 3% at the beginning of 2023 to approximately 1.6% [3][8] Foreign Wealth Management Expansion - Foreign wealth management firms in China have seen a resurgence in scale over the past two years, with BlackRock's joint venture achieving nearly double its size this year [2][3] - The focus of these firms is primarily on fixed income assets, including cash management products and various fixed income strategies, while maintaining a low allocation to equity assets [3][4] - BlackRock's joint venture has launched a total of 120 products across various risk levels, aiming to meet diverse investor needs [4] Domestic Wealth Management Trends - Domestic wealth management companies still dominate the market, with three firms exceeding 2 trillion yuan in scale and nearly ten others surpassing 1 trillion yuan [1][8] - The overall scale of wealth management products in the market reached 30.97 trillion yuan as of June 2025, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to previous years [6][8] - The decline in scale for many domestic firms in June was significant, with a total drop of nearly 10 billion yuan across various institutions [7] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The current bond market is characterized by low yields, posing challenges for the expansion of wealth management scales [8] - Expectations for monetary policy adjustments, such as rate cuts, are low, with potential policy changes anticipated around September or later [10] - The prevailing view among institutions is to maintain a range-bound strategy in the bond market, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.7% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing increased volatility due to changes in funding conditions around the quarter-end and a rebound in market risk appetite, despite a stable macroeconomic environment with insufficient internal momentum [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows stable macroeconomic totals but weak internal demand, which continues to support the bond market, although the downward momentum for government bond yields is limited after reaching previous lows [1][4]. - The official manufacturing PMI showed slight recovery in June, primarily driven by the oil sector, but remains in contraction territory, indicating uncertain demand prospects [3][4]. - The construction PMI has rebounded significantly, supported by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and accelerating infrastructure investment [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The central bank and six departments issued guidelines to boost consumption, proposing 19 key measures and establishing a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan fund to stabilize consumer expectations [4][5]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to stabilize prices by promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with significant reductions in industries like solar, steel, and cement [4][5]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy meeting removed the phrase "timely rate cuts," indicating a more flexible approach to policy implementation, with expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [5][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market is characterized by a "generally bullish but limited space" outlook, with continued easing of funding conditions supporting short-term bond market sentiment [7]. - The basic economic outlook is weakening due to declining external demand and persistent pressures on internal demand, leading to uncertainty in the economic recovery trend [7]. - While policies to expand consumption and counteract "involution" are being introduced, they primarily focus on existing measures with limited new initiatives, constraining the downward space for interest rates [7].