华润建材科技(01313)午前跌近3%，截至发稿，跌2.31%，报1.69港元，成交额732.64万港元。 消息面上，近期华润建材科技发布2025年三季度业绩，长江证券表示，从公司层面上看，华润建材科技 2025年前3季度水泥和熟料合计销量3943万吨，同比下降10%，水泥销量降幅大于行业，体现出公司积 极维护市场价格体系的自律担当;价格232元/吨，同比下降6元/吨。财务层面上看，前三季度公司综合毛 利率为16.9%，较2024年同期的15.2%增加1.7个百分点。毛利率增加主要由于水泥产品销售成本较2024 年同期下降所致，但部分被骨料及其他分部的毛利率下降所抵消。 长江证券认为，就目前反内卷来看，水泥行业更多是围绕超产治理进行布局，有望出清一部分产能;更 重要在于，若严格按照备案产能生产，有望对生产秩序进行一定优化，真实产能利用率或一定改善。对 于过往产能利用率偏高的广东区域，边际供需改善带来的价格弹性值得期待。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Conch Cement and the Cement Industry Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on Conch Cement and the cement industry in China, highlighting the impact of macro policies and market dynamics on the sector [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - The cement industry is experiencing a price decline since the second quarter of 2023, which has offset profit gains from lower coal costs [2][5]. - Conch Cement's gross profit dropped significantly to 50 CNY/ton in Q3 2025, with competitors like Tianshan and Jidong facing losses [2][6]. - The overall industry is in a low-price and low-profit state, with only a few leading companies maintaining slight profits [2][6]. Demand and Supply Outlook - Short-term demand remains weak, but further price declines are limited due to many companies already incurring losses, suggesting a potential price stabilization and slight recovery [7][8]. - China's cement demand is expected to continue declining, with a 5% drop in national cement production in the first nine months of the year, totaling approximately 1.7 billion tons for the year [9]. - The need for policy and market interventions to address supply-demand imbalances is emphasized, including stricter production controls and mergers to reduce excess capacity [10][12]. Competitive Advantages of Conch Cement - Conch Cement has competitive advantages in cost management and market positioning, including large-scale procurement, efficient production lines, and high capacity utilization [3][13][14]. - The company primarily operates in East and Central South China, leveraging a transportation network to reduce costs significantly [14]. Financial Performance and Future Projections - In the first three quarters of 2025, Conch Cement reported a profit of approximately 6.3 billion CNY, with Q3 profit at 1.9 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [15]. - Future profit projections estimate around 9 billion CNY for 2025, 10 billion CNY for 2026, and potentially 11 billion CNY thereafter, indicating a low current valuation with good investment potential [15]. Additional Important Insights - The cement industry is characterized by cyclical trends, with historical correlations between cement prices and stock prices [3]. - The implementation of daily production controls and carbon trading policies is anticipated to significantly impact the industry by 2026, potentially leading to a more balanced supply-demand scenario [12]. - The ongoing price war in the industry is expected to continue until at least the first three quarters of 2024, with a potential price increase anticipated towards the end of 2024 and into 2025 [5][8].

Summary of Huaxin Cement Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huaxin Cement - **Industry**: Cement and Construction Materials Key Points Financial Performance - Domestic revenue decreased by 1.17% year-on-year due to falling sales volume and prices of cement, aggregates, and ready-mixed concrete [2][3] - Domestic cement sales price increased by 6.6% year-on-year, the highest among comparable companies [2][5] - Cost reduced by approximately 7.9% year-on-year, primarily due to lower fuel costs, particularly coal [5] Overseas Expansion - The company aims to achieve a target of 50 million tons of overseas capacity, having already invested nearly $2 billion to establish 30 million tons of capacity [2][7] - The Nigerian project has completed equity transfer, with a capacity of 10.5 million tons expected to maintain a trend of increasing volume and price through 2025 [2][6][10] - The Nigerian market's profitability is significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations, with a recovery in earnings expected in the first half of 2025 [9][15] Market Conditions - The Chinese cement market is experiencing a decline in demand, with fixed asset investment growth down by 1.1 percentage points and real estate investment down by 11.2% year-on-year [3][14] - Aggregate prices remained stable in the first half of 2025, fluctuating between 35-37 RMB per ton, with a slight decline noted in July [11] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to pursue overseas asset spin-offs to accelerate development and enhance financing capabilities [7][8] - There is a focus on internal management, cost control, and maintaining demand to avoid vicious competition [4][14] Future Outlook - The Nigerian market is expected to continue its upward trend in volume and price in the second half of 2025, with projected price increases of 30% and volume growth of 16.8% [10] - The company remains optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of the Chinese economy despite short-term adjustments [14][22] Risks and Challenges - Exchange rate volatility has led to significant foreign exchange losses, estimated at approximately 158 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [4][15] - The company does not face immediate capacity expansion needs and has surplus indicators available for sale [19] Technical Upgrades - The company plans to implement low-cost technical upgrades to enhance production capacity and reduce costs, similar to successful projects in Zambia, India, and South Africa [17][18] Regulatory Environment - The national policy on overproduction aims to alleviate industry excess, with the company not currently involved in capacity supplementation requirements [22] Long-term Goals - The company is focused on achieving its 50 million tons overseas target, with potential for future expansion to 60 million, 70 million, or even 100 million tons depending on acquisition speed [22]

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry achieved profitability in the first half of 2025, generating a profit of 16 billion due to staggered production and industry self-discipline, avoiding overall losses in the sector [1][2] - The long-term strategy focuses on capacity governance, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) confirming a total capacity of 1.6 billion tons, having eliminated 45 million tons of clinker capacity, expected to raise capacity utilization to 65%-70% [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Profitability Improvement**: The cement industry was in a loss of 1.2 billion in the first half of 2024, but turned around to a profit of 16 billion in the same period of 2025, indicating significant short-term effects from staggered production and self-discipline [2] - **Capacity Governance**: The MIIT's focus on capacity governance aims to reduce actual capacity and eliminate inefficient production. The confirmed capacity is 1.6 billion tons, down from 1.8 billion tons previously [3] - **Progress in Capacity Elimination**: As of the end of July, 45 million tons of clinker capacity have been eliminated, with expectations of a 15% increase in capacity utilization from 50% to 65% [4][5] - **Regional Disparities**: Some regions, particularly in the northwest, northeast, and north China, will still rely on staggered production and self-discipline due to low utilization rates [6] - **Future Market Stability**: By 2027, after the completion of capacity governance, market prices are expected to stabilize, although 2026 may see some market chaos [8][9] - **Carbon Emission Regulations**: The industry will enter a deep phase of carbon trading by 2027, with strict production line operation days set at 330 for A-grade and 270 for C/D-grade lines, significantly impacting the industry [12] Additional Important Insights - **Online Monitoring Systems**: The implementation of online monitoring systems aims to control clinker production errors to within 5%, with a goal of integrating carbon emission monitoring by 2027 [7][11] - **Long-term Price and Profitability Outlook**: The completion of capacity governance is expected to improve price and profitability, with a projected increase in gross profit per ton to a reasonable level rather than hovering around cost lines [10][19] - **Rural Infrastructure Demand**: Demand from rural road and farmland construction is expected to be between 10 million to 20 million tons, benefiting small and medium enterprises more than large corporations [26] - **Current Price Trends**: Cement prices are currently weak due to insufficient market demand, with expectations of a seasonal rebound in mid-August [27] Conclusion The cement industry is undergoing significant changes aimed at improving profitability and stabilizing the market through capacity governance and self-discipline measures. The introduction of carbon emission regulations and online monitoring systems will further shape the industry's future dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call on Cement Industry Opportunities Industry Overview - The cement industry is currently experiencing stable profitability, with gross profit per ton maintaining a high level, although slightly lower than the same period last year, providing a fundamental support for investment [1][2][31] - The industry is expected to benefit from significant infrastructure projects, particularly the Yajiang Hydropower Station, which is projected to increase cement demand by 25 to 30 million tons [1][4][17] Key Points and Arguments Policy and Market Dynamics - The Central Economic Committee's meeting has prompted the cement industry association to respond quickly, indicating that the enforcement of overproduction governance policies will strengthen, potentially impacting supply significantly [1][3][7] - The anticipated "anti-involution" policy to be discussed in the upcoming Politburo meeting is expected to have a substantial impact on the performance elasticity of the cement sector if strictly implemented [1][7] - Environmental inspections have already begun in some provinces, which may accelerate the market clearing process and improve capacity utilization and profit elasticity [1][6][7] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus, with major projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station and the Mêdog Town Yaxia project, which has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, enhancing market expectations for demand driven by infrastructure [1][11][12] - The Yaxia project is expected to significantly increase the demand for construction materials, including cement, with estimates suggesting a need for approximately 25 to 30 million tons of cement [1][17] Supply and Demand Outlook - The cement industry is not currently in a loss-making state, with leading companies maintaining a gross profit per ton above 50 yuan, indicating a stable profitability outlook [2][9][31] - The supply side is expected to undergo significant changes in the second half of the year, including overproduction governance and potential mergers and acquisitions [10][33] - Despite a projected annual demand decline of about 5%, the supply side is still expected to exert pressure, with ongoing efforts to manage production levels [33][34] Additional Important Insights - The Yajiang project is anticipated to have a profound impact on the revenue elasticity of leading companies in the hydropower and infrastructure sectors, with expected revenue increases of 5% to 10% [16] - The local supply situation for cement is primarily managed by companies like Huaxin, which has a clinker production capacity of approximately 11.5 million tons, ensuring a steady supply for the Yaxia project [18][19] - The market is also seeing a significant demand for additives, particularly water-reducing agents, with projected needs reaching around 600,000 to 700,000 tons, translating to a total demand value of approximately 2 billion yuan [20][22] Conclusion - The cement industry is poised for growth driven by infrastructure investments and supportive government policies, with significant opportunities arising from major projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station and the Yaxia project. The focus on overproduction governance and environmental compliance will further shape the market dynamics in the coming months [1][6][10][11][12]