核心观点 货币政策方面，有以下三个判断：第一， 降准幅度有限，预计全年降准25-50个bp； 第二， 预计2026年7 天期逆回购利率下调10bp-20bp； 第三， 定量测算显示2026年中国存量社融同比和M2同比，相较于2025 年都将有所回落，分别从8.4%和8.0%，回落到7.8%和7.1%。 风险提示：1、海外地缘政治冲突升级； 2、外部环境恶化导致中国出口超预期走弱； 3、国内政策力度和 效果不及预期； 4、第三方数据失真的风险；5、研报信息更新不及时的风险；6、测算偏差的风险。 2026年的财政支出结构优化将为制造业投资提供支撑。 2025年三季度开始，中国制造业投资转弱，从子 行业数据看，压制近期制造业投资的有"供强需弱"和"反内卷"预期，以及关税和贸易摩擦的冲击。 展望 2026年，我们认为制造业投资有支撑，类似于2025年三、四季度的低迷不可持续：一是 出口强韧性，推 动出口高依赖行业的预期修复； 二是 2026年先进制造业将继续获得政策扶持。大国博弈的背景下，科技 安全和发展新质生产力的重要性将进一步提高。参考"十四五"时期的经验，预计将继续通过信贷、财政和 产业等政策，去支持制造业尤其 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of "super-normal" measures in the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on key core technology breakthroughs in areas such as integrated circuits and high-end equipment, reflecting a strategic urgency for technological self-reliance [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Context - The global landscape is undergoing unprecedented changes, driven by a new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation, presenting significant development opportunities in strategic frontier technologies like AI and biomedicine [1] - There is a growing trend of unilateralism and protectionism in the international environment, leading to increasing technological blockades and strategic constraints faced by the country [1] Group 2: Innovation and Resource Allocation - "Super-normal" signifies a shift in resource allocation, requiring the breaking down of departmental, regional, and industry barriers to concentrate resources for organized scientific research [3] - The need for a fundamental transition from factor-driven to innovation-driven economic development is highlighted, necessitating a reconfiguration of the innovation ecosystem [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Talent Development - Policy support must be forward-looking and inclusive, with fiscal policies favoring major technological projects and monetary policies providing low-cost, long-term funding for tech companies [4] - The competition for key core technologies ultimately boils down to talent competition, necessitating reforms in the scientific system to empower researchers and encourage disruptive innovations [4]