"我国已从追求GDP增量转向追求科技创新，这本身就是一个国家开启'第二曲线'的过程。"清华大学经 济管理学院会计系长聘教授、清华私募股权研究院院长肖星在10月12日在清华大学举办的PE产业投资 家论坛系列活动上表示，要延长一个经济体的"黄金时代"，关键在于找到自己的"第二曲线"。就综合科 技能力而言，中美在多个领域已呈现并驾齐驱的态势。 本场对话主题为"穿越迷雾：寻找不确定性中的确定性投资主线"，另一位嘉宾为清华大学社会科学学院 经济所副教授、政治经济学研究中心秘书长靳卫萍。两位教授围绕"9·24"新政实施一年来的政策效应、 AI技术与全球政经变化的影响，以及"并购六条"带来的产业并购机遇展开讨论，从宏观到微观探寻投资 确定性的逻辑。 靳卫萍首先以历史纵深分析了"9·24"新政以来的市场变化。她指出，在外部不确定性加大的背景下，确 定性主要来自市场稳定预期与清晰方向；尽管短期波动难以避免，但在结构性行情中，更重要的是"握 好自己的筹码"。 "9·24"新政实施一年以来，中国资本市场经历了深刻的生态重塑。靳卫萍在发言中分析了4月25日中央 政治局会议提到的新型政策性金融工具对经济的支持，以及中国宏观经济政策的确 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is shifting from pursuing GDP growth to focusing on technological innovation, marking the beginning of a "second curve" for the economy [1] Group 1: Policy and Economic Environment - The implementation of the "9·24" policy has led to profound ecological restructuring in China's capital market over the past year [2] - New policy financial tools mentioned in the April 25 Politburo meeting aim to support the economy and enhance confidence, with a focus on directing funds towards private enterprises [2] - The introduction of technology innovation bonds and risk-sharing tools is expected to channel investments into high-tech sectors such as artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy [2] Group 2: Innovation and Market Dynamics - The new type of national system emphasizes the role of private enterprises in driving innovation, contrasting with the traditional model that relied heavily on state-led initiatives [3] - The current capital market has transitioned from a "broad rise and fall" to a "structural market," with competition between China and the U.S. focusing on cutting-edge fields like artificial intelligence [3] - The structural evolution in both primary and secondary markets is driven by new productive forces, highlighting the importance of understanding industry development [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Research - The Tsinghua University Global Private Equity Research Institute has been tracking hard technology sectors since late 2017, creating a database covering approximately 1,500 sub-industries [4] - Successful technology investment now requires a deep understanding of the intersection between technology, industry, and finance, raising the bar for investors [4] - The "PE Industry Investor" program aims to establish a cross-disciplinary research paradigm, connecting scientists with industry practitioners to develop executable investment and acquisition strategies [5]

铸国之重器，必用举国之力。巨大资源投入、长期技术积累和高效组织协调，离不开社会主义制度集中 力量办大事的优越性和新型举国体制的强保障。拿我国自主研制的大型水陆两栖飞机"鲲龙"AG600来 说，20多个省市、150多家企事业单位、10余所高校数以万计研究人员参与研制，全产业链上有1000多 家企业。正是科学的决策、高效的协同，才形成了大协作、专业化、开放型的科研生产体系。集中力 量、协同攻关，不仅成为攀登战略制高点的重要支撑，更持续锤炼参与者的科创能力，为提高国家综合 竞争力汇聚合力。 往深层看，"十四五"时期大国重器、超级工程等成果集中涌现，关键在于充分发挥我国特有的产业优 势、人才优势、市场优势。比如，我国拥有全部工业门类，产业配套能力强，新型基础设施、能源网络 发达，足以支撑大国重器的研发和生产；再比如，超大规模市场能够为科技创新提供丰富应用场景，让 前期创新的巨大投入获得回报，进而摊薄创新成本。以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，以经济实力为科 技创新创造条件、提供舞台，大国重器才有研制、应用、推广的更多便利与更大空间，这是中国的独特 优势所在，也是持续向新发展的潜能所在。 近期，两则消息引人关注：马来西亚的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the key to China's modernization lies in technological modernization, with a strong focus on self-reliance in technology [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is highlighted as a milestone for China's technological development, aiming to build a strong technological nation by 2035 [1] - Significant achievements in China's technological sector are noted, including a steady increase in R&D investment and a rise in the number of high-level international research papers and patents [1][2] Group 2 - The number of personnel in basic research has grown from 472,000 in 2021 to 575,000 in 2023, indicating a robust talent pool [2] - China's national innovation index ranking improved from 14th in 2020 to 10th in 2024, reflecting enhanced overall effectiveness of the national innovation system [2] Group 3 - The integration of innovation chains and industrial chains has accelerated, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 42% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The contribution of the "three new" economies to GDP reached 18%, with significant advancements in AI, biotechnology, and other frontier fields [3] - The number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 people reached 15.3, and China has 343 unicorn companies, ranking second globally [3] Group 4 - The reform of the technological system has deepened, with pilot programs for technology transfer leading to a cumulative contract amount of 12.09 billion yuan, a 126.5% increase compared to the previous three years [4] Group 5 - The scale of re-loans for technological innovation and technological transformation has increased to 800 billion yuan, with a reduced interest rate of 1.5% [5] - The market capitalization of the A-share technology sector exceeds 25%, with an increase in the number of technology companies among the top 50 by market value [5] Group 6 - The restructuring of the technology management system has highlighted the advantages of a new national system, with enhanced coordination between central and local governments [6] - China has made significant strides in major technological infrastructure and original achievements, such as the discovery of over a thousand pulsars by the "Chinese Sky Eye" [6] Group 7 - The rapid development of international and regional technology innovation centers has strengthened the overall progress of other regions, providing robust support for building a technological powerhouse [7] - The next five years are deemed critical for achieving the goal of becoming a technological powerhouse, with a focus on enhancing investment in scientific research and innovation [7]

宏观经济 | 专题报告 迈向"十五五"：迎接新政策风格 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 28 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 增长放缓背后的原因是积极的：8 月经济 数据点评 2025-09-17 服务消费政策预期升温，获得感提升还在 路上 ...

Group 1 - The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) released the 2025 Global Innovation Index report, showing China ranked 10th globally, marking its first entry into the top ten and leading among 36 upper-middle-income economies, having risen 25 places since 2013 [1] - In terms of innovation output, China ranked 5th in 2025, up 2 places from 2024, while its innovation input ranked 19th globally, an increase of 4 places from the previous year [1] - China leads in several areas, holding the top position in multiple intellectual property-related sub-indicators and ranking 2nd globally in patent applications per GDP, industrial cluster development, and corporate R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP [1] Group 2 - Despite China's strong performance, global innovation growth is slowing, with expected R&D spending growth of 2.9% in 2024, down from 4.4% in 2023, marking the lowest level since 2010 [2] - International patent applications are projected to grow by only 0.5% in 2024, significantly lower than the 2.5% average growth rate over the past decade, while China continues to be the largest applicant, accounting for nearly 25% of global applications [2] - The report emphasizes that innovation ecosystems require thoughtful policies, meaningful investments, and cross-sector collaboration, with China's innovation achievements stemming from a strategic, long-term, and systematic national approach [2] Group 3 - China's innovation success is driven by a robust market dynamic, with enterprises as the main innovators engaging in emerging industries and technological transformations [3] - In 2024, R&D spending among 1,510 global companies reached approximately $1.3 trillion, marking the slowest nominal growth since 2010, while Chinese companies are experiencing rapid growth in R&D investments [3] - A total of 524 Chinese companies made it to the global top 2000 in industrial R&D spending, representing 26.2% of the total, with significant growth rates observed in companies like BYD and Tencent [3] Group 4 - China's notable achievements in innovation are attributed to its advantageous position in emerging industries and a vast commercial application market, including sectors like robotics, electric vehicles, and high-speed rail [4] - The rapid growth of technological innovation in China is a result of the effective combination of proactive government policies and a dynamic market, leading to accelerated integration of technological and industrial innovation [4] - With the advantages of a large-scale market and intensified competition among enterprises, China is expected to enhance industrial efficiency and technological superiority across various innovation metrics and fields [4]

Group 1 - China ranks 10th in the 2025 Global Innovation Index, marking its first entry into the top ten and leading among 36 upper-middle-income economies, having risen 25 places since 2013 [1] - In innovation output, China ranks 5th in 2025, up 2 places from 2024, while its innovation input ranks 19th, up 4 places [1] - China is the only middle-income economy in the top 30, with leading advantages in various fields, including being first in several intellectual property-related sub-indicators [1] Group 2 - Global innovation growth is slowing, with expected R&D spending growth of 2.9% in 2024, down from 4.4% in 2023, marking the lowest level since 2010 [2] - International patent applications are projected to grow by only 0.5% in 2024, significantly below the 2.5% average growth rate of the past decade [2] - China's R&D investment in 2024 is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, with basic research funding reaching 249.7 billion yuan and R&D intensity at 2.68%, surpassing the EU average [2] Group 3 - Chinese enterprises are driving innovation by shifting market resources towards the real economy and technological innovation, with 524 Chinese companies in the global top 2000 for industrial R&D spending, accounting for 26.2% of the total [3] - Notable companies like BYD, Dongfang Shenghong, Midea Group, and Tencent have seen significant increases in R&D investment, exceeding 10 percentage points [3] Group 4 - China's innovation achievements are significantly attributed to its advantageous position in emerging industries and a vast commercial application market, including sectors like robotics, electric vehicles, and high-speed rail [4] - The combination of proactive government policies and effective market mechanisms has accelerated technological and industrial innovation in China [4] - With ongoing technological accumulation and innovation acceleration, Chinese companies are expected to enhance industrial efficiency and achieve breakthroughs in various innovation metrics and technology fields [4]

Core Insights - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes that central enterprises have prioritized technological innovation as a key task, achieving significant progress and results in recent years [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Strengthening Innovation Capabilities - Central enterprises have increased R&D investment, with an annual growth rate of 6.5%, exceeding 1 trillion yuan (approximately 1.1 trillion yuan last year) for three consecutive years, with nearly 100 billion yuan allocated to basic research [1] - A total of 474 national-level R&D platforms have been established, along with 8 national technology innovation centers and 91 key laboratories, representing one-sixth of the national total [1] - Central enterprises employ 1.44 million R&D personnel, accounting for one-fifth of the national total, and have 219 academicians, enhancing talent support [1] Group 2: Improving Innovation Efficiency - Central enterprises have built a three-tiered collaborative system to enhance independent innovation capabilities, focusing on major strategic needs [2] - They have undertaken 22 national major technology projects and contributed to 60% of key product R&D in the manufacturing sector [2] - A total of 97 original technology source locations have been established in fields like quantum computing and biotechnology, leading to several groundbreaking achievements [2] Group 3: Optimizing Innovation Ecosystem - Central enterprises promote a collaborative environment for technological innovation, emphasizing "tight collaboration and vertical integration" [3] - Incentives for major technological achievements include performance assessments and funding support, with over 70% of the state capital budget for 2025 allocated to enterprises engaged in technological innovation [3] - The empowerment of project leaders and the establishment of compliance mechanisms have increased the enthusiasm of scientific personnel, enhancing innovation vitality [3] Group 4: Notable Achievements - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, central enterprises have made significant technological advancements, contributing to national strategic needs with major projects like "Deep Sea No. 1" and the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Link [4] - Central enterprises won 109 awards in national technology invention and progress categories, accounting for over half of the total awards in the country [4] - Breakthroughs in core technologies related to integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and basic materials have filled industry gaps and promoted the safe development of related sectors [4]

Core Points - The "China Season" of professional tennis has officially commenced with the launch of the ITF Youth Tennis Tour in Beijing, marking a series of nine tournaments across various cities from September to November [3][5] - The initiative aims to create a national brand for the "China Season," drawing inspiration from the four Grand Slam tournaments and promoting economic growth through sports events [7][11] - The China Open, starting on September 24, is expected to attract top global players, including 14 Grand Slam champions, enhancing the visibility and prestige of the "China Season" [9] Industry Development - The "China Season" consists of nine tournaments, including the China Open and Shanghai Masters, taking place in cities like Beijing, Chengdu, and Hong Kong [5][9] - The initiative is projected to attract over 1 million spectators and generate more than 2 billion yuan in related consumption by 2025 [13] - As of August 2024, the number of tennis players in China has reached approximately 25.2 million, reflecting a growth rate of 28.03% since 2021 [16][14] Market Potential - The market size of China's tennis industry is estimated to reach 36.75 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth of 14.4% from 2023, and is expected to reach 62.49 billion yuan by 2029 [22] - The youth demographic is a significant contributor to the growing tennis population, indicating a strong future for the sport in China [22][24] Infrastructure and Support - As of August 2024, China has 53,805 tennis courts, an increase of 8.12% since 2021, supporting the growing interest in the sport [20] - The government is implementing reforms to enhance the management and support of tennis, including the establishment of a "big national team" concept to nurture talent [31][37] Future Outlook - The success of players like Zheng Qinwen is expected to further stimulate interest in tennis, leading to increased participation and investment in the sport [19][26] - The focus on integrating sports and education aims to create a robust framework for developing young tennis talent in China [35]

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's technological achievements have reached historic milestones, with a steady increase in innovation capabilities and a solid foundation for becoming a technology powerhouse [1] - Total R&D investment in 2024 is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, representing a 48% increase compared to 2020, with R&D intensity reaching 2.68% of GDP, surpassing the average level of EU countries [1] - Basic research funding has reached 249.7 billion yuan, showing an increase of over 70% since 2020, and the total number of R&D personnel is the highest in the world [1] Group 2 - The integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation has accelerated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with new productive forces flourishing [2] - Technology has played a significant role in supporting the construction of a strong agricultural nation, a healthy China, a beautiful China, and a safe China [2] - China has established extensive international scientific cooperation with over 160 countries and regions, leading initiatives such as the "Ocean Negative Emission" international scientific program [2]