Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds in China is set to conclude this year, with a total issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan planned for 2025, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas of security and equipment renewal [2][4]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds, with 50-year and 20-year bonds to be issued on October 10 and October 14, respectively [2]. - As of October 9, a total of 1.23 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been issued this year, leaving 70 billion yuan yet to be issued [3]. - The final issuance on October 14 will consist of a 400 billion yuan 20-year bond, following a 300 billion yuan 50-year bond on October 10 [3]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The 1.3 trillion yuan from ultra-long-term special government bonds is allocated for various purposes: 300 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, 200 billion yuan for equipment renewal, and 800 billion yuan for major strategic projects [4]. - The State Development and Reform Commission has allocated the entire 300 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, with 3.3 billion people applying for subsidies, resulting in over 20 trillion yuan in related sales from January to August [4]. Group 3: Future Management - The State Council's report emphasizes the need to optimize the use of ultra-long-term special government bonds, ensuring effective project planning and management, and enhancing oversight of fund allocation and project lifecycle management [5].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 30-year special government bonds is a significant move to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness and support major projects, while also reducing debt pressure for the government [4][6]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The first issuance of the 30-year special government bonds occurred on May 17, with distribution ending on May 20 and trading starting on May 22 [1]. - The average issuance scale for this year's special government bonds is 455 billion yuan, with a total of 1 trillion yuan planned for issuance over several years [5][6]. - The weighted average bidding rate for the first 30-year bond was 2.57%, which is favorable for reducing interest payment pressure [5]. Group 2: Market Response - Some banks, such as China Merchants Bank and Zheshang Bank, quickly sold out their quotas for the special bonds on the first day of availability [2]. - The demand for these bonds indicates strong interest from individual investors, although some banks have not yet received notifications to sell them [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The issuance of long-term bonds is expected to provide ample funding for long-term projects, thereby supporting economic recovery and reducing overall debt costs [4][6]. - Compared to international standards, China's proportion of long-term bonds is relatively low at 16.9%, indicating room for growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to have limited impact on the liquidity and bond markets, while also supporting economic growth through fiscal policy measures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Liquidity - Analysts believe that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will have a limited effect on liquidity due to the long issuance cycle and gradual pace, which helps to reduce market volatility [2]. - The first issuance of the 30-year ultra-long-term special government bond on May 17 did not lead to significant fluctuations in the short-term policy interest rates, as evidenced by the DR007 remaining stable at 1.8421% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" in the bond market by increasing the supply of safe assets, thus balancing supply and demand [2]. - The gradual issuance schedule is anticipated to smooth out any potential supply pressure on the bond market, as the market had already anticipated the supply increase [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The issuance of these bonds signals a proactive fiscal policy aimed at supporting economic development, which may help alleviate local government financial pressures and support infrastructure growth [3][4]. - The introduction of ultra-long-term special government bonds is seen as a step towards promoting interest rate marketization and providing a reference for pricing long-term local government bonds [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - There remains potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly in the second quarter, to support fiscal policy and provide banks with low-cost long-term funding [4][5]. - The central bank's recent actions, such as the equal volume renewal of MLF, indicate a cautious approach to managing liquidity without immediate rate cuts [5][6].

Core Points - The issuance of the 2024 ultra-long special government bonds aims to support major national strategies and enhance security capabilities in key areas, contributing to stable economic and social development [1] - The first-day trading performance of the 20-year ultra-long special government bonds was stable, attributed to a market-oriented issuance mechanism and clear investment objectives [1] Group 1 - The 20-year ultra-long special government bonds were issued with a total amount of 40 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 2.49% [1] - On the first trading day, "24特国02" closed at 100.590 yuan with a gain of 0.59%, and "特国2402" closed at 100.0736 yuan with a gain of 0.07% [1] - The trading volume for "24特国02" reached 1.377 billion yuan, while "特国2402" had a trading volume of 45.096 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The previously listed "24特国01" and "特国2401" also showed stable performance, with "24特国01" closing at 101.0960 yuan (up 0.38%) and "特国2401" at 101.0696 yuan (up 0.36%) [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue ultra-long special government bonds with three different maturities: 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years, with the 50-year bonds set to be auctioned on June 14 [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds increases the supply in the bond market, allowing for better liquidity management by the central bank through various monetary policy tools [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance conducted the first re-issuance of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, with a total competitive bidding amount of 35 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 2.10% [1] - In July, three issues of ultra-long special government bonds were completed, totaling 206 billion yuan, making it the second-largest monthly issuance this year [1] - As of August 1, 2023, 7,960 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds have been issued, achieving 61% of the annual target of 13 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the project list for "two major" construction projects has been fully allocated, with a total of 800 billion yuan, and 7,350 billion yuan of central budget investment has been largely disbursed [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and accelerated fund allocation is expected to support economic development by boosting infrastructure investment and enhancing consumer demand [2][3] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds has effectively stimulated consumer willingness to spend by providing direct subsidies, thereby promoting consumption upgrades [3]