● 本报记者 刘丽靓 2026年开年首个工作周，重大项目开工建设的热潮在全国涌动。央企靠前发力，一批关系国计民生的重 大工程和标志性项目相继启动；多个省市以"开年即冲刺"的态势密集推动项目开工建设。受访人士认 为，随着政策资金协同发力，为"两重""两新"领域投资注入新动能，基建投资增速有望企稳回升。 以有效投资积蓄发展潜力 作为稳投资的"压舱石"，央企聚焦"两重""两新"领域精准发力，以重大项目建设积蓄发展势能。 在雄安新区，中国诚通、中国农发、中国华电总部项目近日相继开工。加上此前已开工建设的中国大唐 总部项目，第二批疏解至雄安的4家央企总部项目全部进入建设阶段。 在能源领域，近日，总投资达70亿元的国家能源集团万州电厂二期扩建项目正式启动。 "项目总投资70亿元，将建设2台100万千瓦高效超超临界燃煤机组，配套脱硫、脱硝环保设施，同步发 展污泥掺烧、园区供汽等'发电+'综合能源业务。"国家能源集团重庆公司万州电厂董事贺宇介绍，项目 计划2028年建成投产，届时电厂在运机组容量将达410万千瓦，年发电量突破200亿千瓦时，将为重庆电 网再添重要骨干电源点。 向"新"而行、向"绿"转型，央企在新兴产业与绿色低 ...

专题报告 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 1 月 6 日 守正出奇，于结构分化中掘金 ——2026 年大类资产配置展望 风险提示：本报告中的资产表现展望通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，大类 资产价格走势受到海内外等多方面因素影响，在政策或市场环境发生明显变化 时，模型存在失效的风险。 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 江雨航 jiangyuhang1@cmschina.com.cn S1090525070014 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 研究助理 董昱含 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 dongyuhan@cmschina.com.cn | 一、A | 股：结构性牛市格局或将延续 | 6 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1. | 为什么仍看好 2026 年 A 股市场表现？ | 6 | | 1.2. | 为什么结构性行情概率仍相对偏高？ | 10 | | 1.3. | 结构 ...

该项目作为本集团重点投资项目，经济收益预期好，抗风险能力强，能够产生良好的经济效益和社会效 益，对国家战略实施及本公司长远发展具有重要意义。 智通财经APP讯，大唐发电(00991)发布公告，于2025年12月19日，本公司与潮州发电及中国银行订立委 托贷款协议，本公司同意委托中国银行向潮州发电提供本金金额为人民币6亿元的委托贷款。 潮州发电作为本公司的附属公司，负责大唐潮州电厂5-6号机组项目(该项目)建设运营，该项目总投资人 民币83.94亿元，预计两台机组分别于2026年11月、2027年1月投产，该项目建成后有利于提高广东省内 能源供应能力，促进电源结构优化。该项目已列入国务院国资委批覆的专项债资金支持项目库清单，总 体情况满足国家"两重"、"两新"项目投资要求，属于专项债资金重点支持范围，本次申请资金符合稳增 长扩投资专项债资金的使用要求。据此，为积极落实国家"两重"、"两新"战略领域宏观经济政策，本公 司通过订立委托贷款协议，将专项债资金以委托贷款的形式提供予潮州发电，为该项目投资建设提供资 金保证，加快推进项目开工建设，助力提高投资效益和高质量发展。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of project investment as a key driver for implementing national strategies, restructuring industries, and enhancing development capabilities. It highlights the efforts of Tianjin's municipal government in promoting effective investment to support high-quality economic growth [1] Investment Growth - Investment growth is stabilizing, with a projected increase of 3.1% in 2024 compared to the previous year, exceeding the targets set by the municipal government. The investment growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to be 3%, which is higher than the national average of 3.5% [2] - The investment structure is improving, with industrial investment rising from 24% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 34.4% in the first three quarters of 2025. Infrastructure investment also increased from 21.2% to 32.7%, while real estate investment decreased from 46.8% to 27.6% [2] Policy Support - The Tianjin government has successfully secured a total of 355 billion yuan in funding during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which has significantly enhanced urban resilience and disaster prevention capabilities. This funding has also supported key technological advancements and improved living conditions for residents [3] Project Management - A top-down mechanism has been established to enhance project planning and application processes. The government has identified 1,334 projects with a total investment of 844.9 billion yuan and a funding requirement of 197.6 billion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The government is focused on high-quality project execution, with significant projects such as Sinopec's ethylene plant and Toyota's new energy factory being completed, thereby enhancing the competitive landscape of key industries [5] Project Planning and Innovation - The Tianjin Development and Reform Commission has added 18,518 new projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a total investment of 8.27 trillion yuan. This has created a positive cycle of planning, reserving, and constructing projects [7] - The government is promoting innovative project planning methods and has organized forums to share best practices and experiences, which are expected to elevate the overall project planning capabilities across the city [6][7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of project investment as a key driver for implementing national strategies, restructuring industries, and enhancing development capabilities [1] - It highlights the shift from scale-driven to quality-driven investment, focusing on optimizing investment structures and enhancing development momentum [2] Investment Growth and Structure - Investment growth is stabilizing, with a projected 3.1% year-on-year increase in 2024, exceeding the city's targets and aligning with national trends [3] - The industrial investment share increased from 24% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 34.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a focus on high-quality development [3] - Infrastructure investment share rose from 21.2% to 32.7%, while real estate investment share decreased from 46.8% to 27.6%, reflecting a reduced dependency on real estate [3] Policy Support and Funding - The city has secured a record 355 billion yuan in funding during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, translating policy benefits into developmental outcomes [4] - The focus on national policy directions has led to enhanced disaster resilience and improved living conditions through effective project funding [4] Project Management and Quality - A systematic approach to project management has been established, with a focus on high-quality project planning and execution [5] - The city aims to streamline project approvals, reducing processing times to within 50% of legal limits, thereby enhancing funding utilization efficiency [5] Project Implementation and Innovation - Significant projects such as Sinopec's ethylene plant and Toyota's new energy factory have been completed, showcasing the city's commitment to advancing its industrial base [6] - The city has initiated 18 landmark industrial projects and 28 billion-yuan projects to bolster economic development [7] Future Planning - The city plans to leverage the momentum from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit to enhance its development advantages and ensure stable growth in fixed asset investments [10]

Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China reported steady growth in operating performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit reaching 222.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, and operating income of 550.8 billion yuan, up 1.87% [1] - The bank's capital adequacy ratio stands at 17.78%, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.27%, down 3 basis points from the beginning of the year [1] - Total assets of the bank reached 48.1 trillion yuan, with total loans amounting to 26.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.08 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 8.36% [1] Financial Performance - Daily average customer deposits increased to 38.49 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 3.52 trillion yuan, representing a growth rate of 10.06% [1] - The average daily deposit balance in domestic RMB reached 30.61 trillion yuan, with an increase of 1.85 trillion yuan, showing a growth rate of 6.4% [1] Focus on Rural and Agricultural Financing - The bank prioritized financial services for rural areas, with county loans totaling 10.90 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.0417 trillion yuan, and a growth rate of 10.57%, surpassing the bank's average growth rate by 2.21 percentage points [2] - Loans in key areas for rural revitalization, such as rural industries and construction, reached 2.74 trillion yuan and 2.47 trillion yuan, with growth rates of 22.8% and 9.7%, respectively, both exceeding the bank's overall growth rates [2] Support for Real Economy - The bank enhanced its financial services in key sectors, with technology loans exceeding 4.7 trillion yuan and green loans reaching 5.8 trillion yuan [2] - Inclusive finance for small and micro enterprises remains a priority, with inclusive loan balances at 4.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 731.1 billion yuan, and a customer base of 5.23 million [2] Infrastructure and Consumer Support - The bank supported infrastructure-related industries with loan balances of 6.3 trillion yuan, while personal consumption loans, including credit cards, reached 1.46 trillion yuan, with an increase of 126.1 billion yuan and a growth rate of 9.4% [3]

Core Insights - The leasing industry is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment, which may drive corporate capital expenditure cycles upward, making it an attractive high dividend strategy [1] - The leasing sector has shown resilience against economic cycles, with stable revenue and profit growth, and a focus on high-quality, undervalued stocks [1][2] Industry Overview - The leasing industry has undergone five cycles since 2005, closely tied to capital expenditure cycles and interest rates, with a notable recovery expected in the coming years [9][10] - The leasing sector's revenue and profit have shown steady growth, with a 9.5% year-on-year increase in operating income and a 9.1% increase in net profit for 2024 [14][18] - Policy support and the "Two Heavy, Two New" initiative are expected to catalyze further growth in the leasing market [18] Industry Characteristics - The leasing industry has a broad investment scope, focusing on heavy assets and high capital expenditure sectors, with a significant portion of credit extended to small and medium enterprises [2][30] - The asset side of leasing companies is increasingly focused on high-growth industries, while the liability side benefits from diversified financing channels [2][30] Investment Value - Leasing companies are characterized by high profitability and low financial leverage, with dividend rates surpassing those of traditional banks since 2020 [2][3] - The leasing sector is positioned as a new focal point for high dividend strategies, with a growing emphasis on asset quality and profitability [3][27] Key Companies - Three main areas of focus include: 1. Aircraft and ship leasing companies, which are expected to benefit from a high demand cycle [3][39] 2. Companies focusing on leasing for small and medium enterprises, such as Jiangsu Jinzhong, which has a unique vendor leasing model [3][2] 3. Traditional leasing companies transitioning to emerging industries, like Yuexiu Capital, which is expanding into renewable energy [3][2] Recommendations - Investment suggestions include Jiangsu Jinzhong and Far East Horizon in financial leasing, and China Aircraft Leasing and China Ship Leasing in specialized equipment leasing [3][3]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds in China has been successfully completed for the year, with a total of 1.3 trillion yuan issued, aimed at supporting key strategic areas and enhancing economic stability [1][2][3] Group 1: Issuance and Financial Details - The final issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds for the year was 40 billion yuan, with a 20-year maturity and a coupon rate of 1.92%, bringing the total issuance for the year to 1.3 trillion yuan [1][2] - The funds from the 1.3 trillion yuan issuance are allocated as follows: 300 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, 200 billion yuan for large-scale equipment updates, and 800 billion yuan for key strategic projects [2][3] Group 2: Economic Impact and Policy Support - The issuance of these bonds is a crucial tool for expanding effective investment and consumption, particularly in the context of insufficient domestic demand and increasing economic pressures [2][3] - The government aims to use the funds to support the "two new" (large-scale equipment updates and consumer product upgrades) and "two heavy" (major strategic implementations and key area security capabilities) initiatives, which are essential for stabilizing economic growth [2][3] Group 3: Management and Oversight - There are ongoing efforts to enhance the management and oversight of the funds from ultra-long-term special government bonds, including the implementation of a project management and fund supervision framework [3][5] - Recent audits have revealed issues with local governments not fulfilling their financial commitments for projects funded by these bonds, highlighting the need for improved accountability and transparency [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The likelihood of issuing additional ultra-long-term special government bonds within the current year is low, but expectations remain for continued issuance in 2024, potentially exceeding 1 trillion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds in China is set to conclude this year, with a total issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan planned for 2025, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas of security and equipment renewal [2][4]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds, with 50-year and 20-year bonds to be issued on October 10 and October 14, respectively [2]. - As of October 9, a total of 1.23 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been issued this year, leaving 70 billion yuan yet to be issued [3]. - The final issuance on October 14 will consist of a 400 billion yuan 20-year bond, following a 300 billion yuan 50-year bond on October 10 [3]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The 1.3 trillion yuan from ultra-long-term special government bonds is allocated for various purposes: 300 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, 200 billion yuan for equipment renewal, and 800 billion yuan for major strategic projects [4]. - The State Development and Reform Commission has allocated the entire 300 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, with 3.3 billion people applying for subsidies, resulting in over 20 trillion yuan in related sales from January to August [4]. Group 3: Future Management - The State Council's report emphasizes the need to optimize the use of ultra-long-term special government bonds, ensuring effective project planning and management, and enhancing oversight of fund allocation and project lifecycle management [5].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds in China is set to conclude this year, with a total issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan planned for 2025, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas of development [3][4]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds, with 50-year and 20-year bonds to be issued on October 10 and October 14, respectively [3]. - As of October 9, 2023, a total of 1.23 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been issued, leaving 70 billion yuan yet to be issued [4]. - The final issuance on October 14 will consist of a 400 billion yuan 20-year bond, following a 300 billion yuan 50-year bond on October 10 [4]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The 1.3 trillion yuan from ultra-long-term special government bonds is allocated as follows: 300 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, 200 billion yuan for equipment updates, and 800 billion yuan for "two重" (major strategic projects) [5]. - The State Development and Reform Commission has allocated the fourth batch of 690 billion yuan for consumer product upgrades, completing the annual allocation of 300 billion yuan for this purpose [5]. - From January to August, 330 million people have claimed subsidies for consumer product upgrades, resulting in over 2 trillion yuan in related sales [5]. Group 3: Future Management and Oversight - The government plans to enhance the effectiveness of ultra-long-term special government bonds by improving information sharing and project planning to support urgent and long-term development needs [5]. - There will be a focus on evaluating the implementation of "two新" (new initiatives) policies and optimizing arrangements accordingly [5]. - Strengthening lifecycle management of "two重" projects will be prioritized, including oversight of fund allocation during construction and management of project operations and returns post-completion [5].