Group 1: Economic Policy and Measures - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for counter-cyclical adjustments and the continuous implementation of macroeconomic policies to enhance development momentum [1][3] - There is an expectation for new incremental measures in Q4, focusing on fiscal stimulus, interest rate cuts, and stronger support for the real estate market [1][3] - The government aims to expand domestic demand and improve the effectiveness of consumption and investment measures to stimulate market vitality [4][5] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand remains crucial for stabilizing growth, with recent data showing a decline in retail sales growth to 3.4% year-on-year in August, the lowest for the year [4] - The issuance of long-term special bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan aims to support significant projects and enhance fiscal spending [4] - New policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan are introduced to supplement project capital, focusing on key sectors like digital economy and green transformation [5] Group 3: External Trade and Investment - The government is committed to stabilizing foreign trade and investment, with a total import and export value of 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [5] - In September, the monthly trade value reached 4.04 trillion yuan, marking an 8% year-on-year growth, the highest monthly growth rate of the year [5] Group 4: Industry Competition and Governance - The government is taking steps to address irrational competition in various industries, promoting cooperation among businesses and enhancing the innovation ecosystem [6][7] - Recent statistics indicate improvements in industry profits and prices, with raw material manufacturing profits rising by 22.1% year-on-year from January to August [7]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds in China is set to conclude this year, with a total issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan planned for 2024, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas of security and equipment renewal [1][3]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds, with 50-year and 20-year bonds to be issued on October 10 and October 14, respectively [1]. - As of October 9, a total of 1.23 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been issued this year, leaving 70 billion yuan yet to be issued [2]. - The final bond issuance on October 14 will consist of 400 billion yuan in 20-year bonds, following a 300 billion yuan issuance of 50-year bonds on October 10 [2]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The 1.3 trillion yuan from ultra-long-term special government bonds is allocated as follows: 300 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, 200 billion yuan for equipment renewal, and 800 billion yuan for "two major" construction projects [3]. - The State Development and Reform Commission has allocated the fourth batch of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, completing the annual allocation of 300 billion yuan for this purpose [3]. - From January to August, 330 million people have claimed subsidies for consumer goods replacement, resulting in over 2 trillion yuan in related sales [3].

Core Insights - The 20-year ultra-long special treasury bonds launched on May 27 have seen a higher subscription enthusiasm compared to the previous 30-year bonds, with banks like China Merchants Bank and Zheshang Bank selling out their quotas within a short time frame [1][2] Subscription Performance - The issuance quota for both the 20-year and 30-year bonds was set at 5 billion yuan, but the 20-year bonds sold out in approximately 25 minutes, while the 30-year bonds took until 3:30 PM to sell out [2] - Zheshang Bank's previous 30-year bond had a quota of 15 million yuan and sold out by 1:30 PM on the same day, indicating a significant increase in demand for the 20-year bonds [2] - Investors' purchase amounts varied widely, ranging from 30,000 yuan to over 1 million yuan, reflecting diverse investor interest [2] Market Dynamics - The 20-year bonds are expected to experience price volatility post-listing, similar to the 30-year bonds, but the overall impact on the bond market is anticipated to be limited [3][6] - The fixed interest rate for the 20-year bonds is set at 2.49%, with interest payments made semi-annually [3] - The bonds are sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, leading banks to assign higher risk ratings, with China Merchants Bank rating it R3 and Zheshang Bank R2 [3] Trading Environment - After listing, investors can trade the bonds in the interbank market or transfer them to brokerage accounts for exchange market trading [3] - The trading volume for the 30-year bonds was low, indicating potential liquidity issues in the secondary market [4] - The market is expected to adapt to increased supply of ultra-long special treasury bonds, with monthly issuance rising from 200 billion to 600 billion yuan to a range of 800 billion to 1.6 trillion yuan from May to November [7]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to have limited impact on the liquidity and bond markets, while also supporting economic growth through fiscal policy measures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Liquidity - Analysts believe that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will have a limited effect on liquidity due to the long issuance cycle and gradual pace, which helps to reduce market volatility [2]. - The first issuance of the 30-year ultra-long-term special government bond on May 17 did not lead to significant fluctuations in the short-term policy interest rates, as evidenced by the DR007 remaining stable at 1.8421% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" in the bond market by increasing the supply of safe assets, thus balancing supply and demand [2]. - The gradual issuance schedule is anticipated to smooth out any potential supply pressure on the bond market, as the market had already anticipated the supply increase [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The issuance of these bonds signals a proactive fiscal policy aimed at supporting economic development, which may help alleviate local government financial pressures and support infrastructure growth [3][4]. - The introduction of ultra-long-term special government bonds is seen as a step towards promoting interest rate marketization and providing a reference for pricing long-term local government bonds [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - There remains potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly in the second quarter, to support fiscal policy and provide banks with low-cost long-term funding [4][5]. - The central bank's recent actions, such as the equal volume renewal of MLF, indicate a cautious approach to managing liquidity without immediate rate cuts [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is characterized by a steady pace, aiming to minimize liquidity impact on the market [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The second ultra-long-term special government bond was issued on May 24, with a total competitive bidding amount of 40 billion yuan and a winning yield of 2.49% [1]. - The issuance schedule for this year includes 7 bonds with a 20-year term, 12 with a 30-year term, and 3 with a 50-year term, indicating a uniform issuance pattern [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Analysts suggest that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will have a limited impact on liquidity, with a controlled supply pressure expected [2]. - The issuance arrangement is designed to reduce short-term liquidity shocks, and the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut by the central bank in response to the bond issuance is low [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to approach investments in ultra-long-term special government bonds with caution, as market prices can fluctuate based on market conditions [3][4]. - The bonds are considered a suitable choice for conservative investors due to the high assurance of principal and interest repayment backed by national sovereign credit [4].

Core Points - The issuance of the 2024 ultra-long special government bonds aims to support major national strategies and enhance security capabilities in key areas, contributing to stable economic and social development [1] - The first-day trading performance of the 20-year ultra-long special government bonds was stable, attributed to a market-oriented issuance mechanism and clear investment objectives [1] Group 1 - The 20-year ultra-long special government bonds were issued with a total amount of 40 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 2.49% [1] - On the first trading day, "24特国02" closed at 100.590 yuan with a gain of 0.59%, and "特国2402" closed at 100.0736 yuan with a gain of 0.07% [1] - The trading volume for "24特国02" reached 1.377 billion yuan, while "特国2402" had a trading volume of 45.096 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The previously listed "24特国01" and "特国2401" also showed stable performance, with "24特国01" closing at 101.0960 yuan (up 0.38%) and "特国2401" at 101.0696 yuan (up 0.36%) [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue ultra-long special government bonds with three different maturities: 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years, with the 50-year bonds set to be auctioned on June 14 [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds increases the supply in the bond market, allowing for better liquidity management by the central bank through various monetary policy tools [2]