Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the high-yield market, highlighting that approximately 5% of companies are at risk of needing debt restructuring or capital structure adjustments due to the current interest rate environment [1][2]. Core Insights - The financial health of American households and the stock market is strong, but the high-yield market shows vulnerabilities due to outdated capital structures [1][2]. - The rapid growth of shadow banking and private credit markets, driven by monetary stimulus and low interest rates, may lead to misallocation of capital and excessive risk-taking [1][2]. - The technology sector's significant investment in data centers is projected to approach $3 trillion by 2028, presenting both opportunities and risks for the credit market, particularly in private credit [1][2]. - The blurring lines between public and private credit markets are creating new investment opportunities, as some technology infrastructure loans now resemble investment-grade loans in terms of risk and return [3]. - In a changing environment of cross-asset correlations, attention should be paid to dollar asset allocation and the stock market's response to interest rate changes, with historical data suggesting that the S&P 500 may react more significantly to rising rates [4]. - Despite the diminished diversification effect of bonds, they still play a crucial role in certain dynamics, and constructing a diversified cross-asset portfolio requires careful consideration of valuations and expected returns [4]. - The traditional 60/40 portfolio model remains relevant, particularly the 5 to 10-year fixed income segment, which is vital for long-term wealth clients due to its lower volatility and stable returns [5][6].

美债方面，考虑到财政意外扩张，10年期入场点位上调0.2pct至4.6%，5年期上调0.05pct至4.15%；美元方面， 我们保持长线看空立场，密切关注技术性反弹带来的入场机会。 一、宏观：失业率缓步上行 美国就业市场受到长短逻辑交织影响，失业率仍在上行，但斜率极缓。 5月失业率上行5bp至4.24%，连续一个 季度维持在4.2%左右。 图1：失业率连续一个季度录得4.2% 作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 5月美国非农就业数据再超市场预期。新增非农就业人数13.9万（市场预期12.6万），失业率4.2%（市场预期 4.2%），劳动参与率62.4%（市场预期62.6%），平均时薪同比增速3.9%（市场预期3.7%）。 从长期看，就业市场仍处"正常化"下半场，空缺职位消耗驱动失业率上行。从短期看，居民部门预期及财务状 况改善同时导致就业意愿下降及雇佣需求扩张。两者交织影响之下，失业率延续缓步上行态势。前瞻地看，失 业率仍将下行但空间非常有限，叠加通胀仍存关税压力，美联储并无调整立场的理由，维持年内降息不超2次 （50bp）判断，甚至可能不降息。 资 料 来 源 ： M A C R O B O N D 、 招 商 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of China's innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in international markets, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index rising 27.6% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 14.5% [2] - Significant overseas licensing deals for innovative drugs are being realized, showcasing the international competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [6][7] - The report recommends several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others, as potential investment opportunities due to favorable market conditions [7] Industry Analysis - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from overseas licensing transactions, optimization of domestic procurement policies, and the implementation of new medical insurance directories, which are expected to drive valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical industry by 2025 [7] - The report notes that the recent updates from companies like Innovent Biologics and 3SBio at the ASCO conference demonstrate their clinical advancements and potential market impact [2][5] - The report anticipates continued growth in the domestic insurance market, with a projected 12.7% year-on-year increase in total premiums for the first four months of the year, indicating strong growth potential for internet insurance companies [10] Company Insights - 3SBio's licensing agreement with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF drug is expected to yield $1.25 billion in upfront payments and up to $4.8 billion in milestone payments, reflecting the drug's best-in-class potential [6] - The report highlights the positive outlook for ZhongAn Online due to its involvement in the stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance its valuation [8][9] - The report projects that ZhongAn's insurance premium growth will be driven by health and automotive sectors, with an expected combined ratio improvement due to better underwriting practices [10]

Group 1 - Investors are reducing their positions in dollar assets, indicating a shift towards a more neutral stance rather than a large-scale exit from the dollar [1] - Some investors have increased their dollar asset holdings by 10%, 20%, or 30% prior to this shift [1] - The market has shown optimism towards the performance of the U.S. compared to other regions, with most investors increasing their U.S. asset holdings [1] Group 2 - The announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration led to significant market volatility, prompting some investors to withdraw from U.S. assets [1] - Recent progress in U.S.-China trade talks has spurred a market rebound, contributing to a rise in the dollar and recovery in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [1] - There is a demand for Chinese stocks and fixed income products, with U.S. companies still able to operate in China despite challenges [1] Group 3 - Tariff measures have also impacted mergers and acquisitions (M&A), leading to a decline in new deals [2] - In April, the number of announced global M&A contracts fell to the lowest level in over 20 years, indicating a potential slowdown in economic activity [2] - Companies involved in M&A transactions may choose to pause their deals due to the uncertainty created by tariff announcements [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is facing challenges from both Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, leading to a shift in global capital flows and changes in dollar asset allocation strategies [1][3] - Trump's escalating tariff policies have revealed structural weaknesses in the U.S. economy, with GDP growth revised down by 0.3% in Q1, a significant drop in consumer spending growth from 4.0% to 1.8%, and a 7.3% annualized decline in equipment investment [3][4] - The potential implementation of additional tariffs in July could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1.2-1.5 percentage points and increase the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is in a historical policy dilemma, with market expectations for a 100 basis point rate cut by year-end, while officials emphasize the need for more evidence of sustained inflation decline [4] - The dollar index is at a critical technical juncture, with mixed signals indicating a potential lack of momentum for a rebound, while geopolitical risks could lead to a return of safe-haven flows [4][5] Group 3 - Global capital allocation strategies are undergoing significant changes, as evidenced by Nomura Holdings' $1.8 billion acquisition of Macquarie Group's asset management business, reflecting institutional investors' confidence in long-term investment value [5] - Companies are advised to adopt layered hedging strategies for dollar liabilities and closely monitor offshore dollar liquidity indicators, as the TED spread has risen to 28 basis points, indicating tightening risk appetite in the interbank market [5][6] Group 4 - In the face of uncertainty from tariff and monetary policies, companies are encouraged to establish scenario analysis models for policy shocks, create dynamic hedging portfolios, and explore cross-asset allocations between emerging market bonds in Asia and U.S. healthcare sectors [6][7] - Global central banks have slowed the accumulation of dollar reserves for seven consecutive months, and demand for 30-year U.S. Treasury auctions has shown the weakest performance since March 2020, indicating challenges to dollar dominance [7]