| 保司 | 友 B | | 保 C | 安 S | | 国S海外 | | 宏 L | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产品 | 环宇 图H | | [信S明天] | | 望HI | 智Y世代(卓越) | | 宏Z传承 | | | | ਦੇਣ ਸ਼ਹਿ | | 5年期 | | २संदर्शन | 5年期 | | 5年期 | | | 优惠 截止日 | 12月31日前 | | 12月31日前 | | 10月31日前 | | 12月31日 | 10月20日 | | | | (11月30日前生效) | | (2026年1月31日前生效) | | (12月31日前生效) | | (不限生效时间) | (26年1月20日前生效) | | | | 保费 | 优惠 保费 | 优惠 | 保费 | 优惠 | 保费 | 优惠 保费 | | 优惠 | | FF | ≥500,000 | 20%+6%* ≥100.000 | 16% | ≥200.000 | 26%+5%* | ≥2,500 | 15% | ≥250,000 | 8% ...

2025 年 10 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 长假期间国内外大事速递 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《节前波动有所放大，持股还是持币 过节？ —策略周报》2025-09-29 2、《长假临近，震荡分化延续 —策略周 报》2025-09-21 3、《颠簸初现，成长风格人气仍高 —策 略周报》2025-09-07 4、《A 股 8 月强势收官，9 月有哪些变 数？ —策略周报》2025-08-31 5、《沪指强势反弹，周期成长轮动 —策 略周报》2025-08-10 投资要点 美国政府"停摆"。 日本自民党选出首位女总裁，即将成为日本历史上第一位女首相。 中东地缘风险降温。 黄金再创新高，中国央行连续第 11 个月增持黄金。 国庆中秋假期超 24 亿人次跨区域流动，创历史同期 ...

美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体收涨，其中， 标普500指数收涨0.48%，创年内第27次新高，道指收涨0.29%，纳指收涨0.94%，两大指数也均创历史新 高。 芯片股走强，英特尔涨超22%，应用材料、阿斯麦涨超6%，美光科技涨超5%。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.79%。网易跌超4%，哔哩哔哩跌超3%，微博、理想汽车、阿里巴巴跌超2%，百 度、小鹏、拼多多跌超1%。 01 美联储政策转向引发关注 尽管美联储实施了降息，但其传递的信息远非纯粹的鸽派。鲍威尔的讲话暗示，此次行动并非激进宽松政策的开端，而是应对经济不确定性、特别是劳动 力市场走软和通胀顽固的审慎之举。 Pepperstone Group研究策略师Michael Brown表示："前置式"降息可能是这次决定中最重要的部分。如果劳动力市场疲软持续，美联储将继续降息，货币政 策环境将很快变得宽松得多。 BNP Paribas财富管理首席投资策略师Stephan Kemper指出："美联储看跌期权重新启动。在通胀如此高企时降息是不寻常举措。市场似乎认为美联储已决 定在其双重使命中愿意牺牲哪一部分。" 策略师Mark Cranfield ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the high-yield market, highlighting that approximately 5% of companies are at risk of needing debt restructuring or capital structure adjustments due to the current interest rate environment [1][2]. Core Insights - The financial health of American households and the stock market is strong, but the high-yield market shows vulnerabilities due to outdated capital structures [1][2]. - The rapid growth of shadow banking and private credit markets, driven by monetary stimulus and low interest rates, may lead to misallocation of capital and excessive risk-taking [1][2]. - The technology sector's significant investment in data centers is projected to approach $3 trillion by 2028, presenting both opportunities and risks for the credit market, particularly in private credit [1][2]. - The blurring lines between public and private credit markets are creating new investment opportunities, as some technology infrastructure loans now resemble investment-grade loans in terms of risk and return [3]. - In a changing environment of cross-asset correlations, attention should be paid to dollar asset allocation and the stock market's response to interest rate changes, with historical data suggesting that the S&P 500 may react more significantly to rising rates [4]. - Despite the diminished diversification effect of bonds, they still play a crucial role in certain dynamics, and constructing a diversified cross-asset portfolio requires careful consideration of valuations and expected returns [4]. - The traditional 60/40 portfolio model remains relevant, particularly the 5 to 10-year fixed income segment, which is vital for long-term wealth clients due to its lower volatility and stable returns [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of normalization, with the unemployment rate gradually rising, influenced by both long-term and short-term factors. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance on interest rates, with limited room for rate cuts in the near future [1][14]. Group 1: Employment Data - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 126,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% [1][17]. - The average hourly wage growth year-on-year was 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.7% [1][17]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate has been gradually increasing, rising by 5 basis points to 4.24% in May, maintaining around 4.2% for the past quarter [2][3]. - The three-month moving average of job vacancies was recorded at 4.4%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the mid-2024 average [6]. Group 3: Short-term Influences - Consumer sentiment has improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index showing signs of recovery, indicating that the impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment is easing [8][9]. - The financial situation of U.S. households has improved, supported by fiscal expansion, leading to a decrease in employment willingness and an increase in hiring demand [8][10]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing tightening supply and demand dynamics, with a slight rebound in the job vacancy ratio to 1.03 in April. The average hourly wage growth increased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4% in May [14]. - The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate may continue to rise gradually, expected to fluctuate between 4.2% and 4.6% throughout the year [14]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the stronger-than-expected employment data, U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities rose significantly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 11.6 basis points to 4.04% [15]. - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.45% to 99.19, while major U.S. stock indices all posted gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.03% [15]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its long-term positioning for 10-year Treasuries to 4.6% and for 5-year Treasuries to 4.15%, maintaining a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [16]. - The expectation is that any technical rebounds in the dollar will present selling opportunities, as the long-term downtrend in the dollar is anticipated to continue [16].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of China's innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in international markets, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index rising 27.6% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 14.5% [2] - Significant overseas licensing deals for innovative drugs are being realized, showcasing the international competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [6][7] - The report recommends several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others, as potential investment opportunities due to favorable market conditions [7] Industry Analysis - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from overseas licensing transactions, optimization of domestic procurement policies, and the implementation of new medical insurance directories, which are expected to drive valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical industry by 2025 [7] - The report notes that the recent updates from companies like Innovent Biologics and 3SBio at the ASCO conference demonstrate their clinical advancements and potential market impact [2][5] - The report anticipates continued growth in the domestic insurance market, with a projected 12.7% year-on-year increase in total premiums for the first four months of the year, indicating strong growth potential for internet insurance companies [10] Company Insights - 3SBio's licensing agreement with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF drug is expected to yield $1.25 billion in upfront payments and up to $4.8 billion in milestone payments, reflecting the drug's best-in-class potential [6] - The report highlights the positive outlook for ZhongAn Online due to its involvement in the stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance its valuation [8][9] - The report projects that ZhongAn's insurance premium growth will be driven by health and automotive sectors, with an expected combined ratio improvement due to better underwriting practices [10]

Group 1 - Investors are reducing their positions in dollar assets, indicating a shift towards a more neutral stance rather than a large-scale exit from the dollar [1] - Some investors have increased their dollar asset holdings by 10%, 20%, or 30% prior to this shift [1] - The market has shown optimism towards the performance of the U.S. compared to other regions, with most investors increasing their U.S. asset holdings [1] Group 2 - The announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration led to significant market volatility, prompting some investors to withdraw from U.S. assets [1] - Recent progress in U.S.-China trade talks has spurred a market rebound, contributing to a rise in the dollar and recovery in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [1] - There is a demand for Chinese stocks and fixed income products, with U.S. companies still able to operate in China despite challenges [1] Group 3 - Tariff measures have also impacted mergers and acquisitions (M&A), leading to a decline in new deals [2] - In April, the number of announced global M&A contracts fell to the lowest level in over 20 years, indicating a potential slowdown in economic activity [2] - Companies involved in M&A transactions may choose to pause their deals due to the uncertainty created by tariff announcements [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is facing challenges from both Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, leading to a shift in global capital flows and changes in dollar asset allocation strategies [1][3] - Trump's escalating tariff policies have revealed structural weaknesses in the U.S. economy, with GDP growth revised down by 0.3% in Q1, a significant drop in consumer spending growth from 4.0% to 1.8%, and a 7.3% annualized decline in equipment investment [3][4] - The potential implementation of additional tariffs in July could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1.2-1.5 percentage points and increase the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is in a historical policy dilemma, with market expectations for a 100 basis point rate cut by year-end, while officials emphasize the need for more evidence of sustained inflation decline [4] - The dollar index is at a critical technical juncture, with mixed signals indicating a potential lack of momentum for a rebound, while geopolitical risks could lead to a return of safe-haven flows [4][5] Group 3 - Global capital allocation strategies are undergoing significant changes, as evidenced by Nomura Holdings' $1.8 billion acquisition of Macquarie Group's asset management business, reflecting institutional investors' confidence in long-term investment value [5] - Companies are advised to adopt layered hedging strategies for dollar liabilities and closely monitor offshore dollar liquidity indicators, as the TED spread has risen to 28 basis points, indicating tightening risk appetite in the interbank market [5][6] Group 4 - In the face of uncertainty from tariff and monetary policies, companies are encouraged to establish scenario analysis models for policy shocks, create dynamic hedging portfolios, and explore cross-asset allocations between emerging market bonds in Asia and U.S. healthcare sectors [6][7] - Global central banks have slowed the accumulation of dollar reserves for seven consecutive months, and demand for 30-year U.S. Treasury auctions has shown the weakest performance since March 2020, indicating challenges to dollar dominance [7]