Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - This week (0126 - 0130), there were significant fluctuations in major asset classes. The short - term yields of US stocks, precious metals, and US bonds were significantly adjusted, and the US dollar was slightly repaired. The market believes that the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2026 may remain restrained. The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets such as US bonds and gold will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [1]. - Overseas uncertainties have led to significant fluctuations in domestic risk - based assets. The report previously suggested that the convertible bond strategy should prioritize "controlling drawdowns" and also pay attention to high - probability pro - cyclical targets. Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [1]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1. Overall Decline in the Equity Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the equity market as a whole declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 4117.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62% to close at 14205.89 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09% to close at 3346.36 points. The CSI 300 rose 0.08% to close at 4706.34 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 2615.81 billion yuan to 30365.33 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.43% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries closed up, with 4 industries rising more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, rising 7.95%, 5.83%, 3.68%, 3.37%, and 1.82% respectively. National defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and commercial retail led the losses, with declines of 7.69%, 5.10%, 5.08%, 4.77%, and 4.18% respectively [12]. 1.2. Overall Decline in the Convertible Bond Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries closed up, with 2 industries having a gain of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and building decoration led the gains, rising 5.74%, 2.73%, 1.62%, 1.22%, and 0.68% respectively. Household appliances, computers, power equipment, commercial retail, and national defense and military industry led the losses, falling 10.21%, 7.52%, 6.87%, 5.84%, and 5.56% respectively [13]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 902.09 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 30.87 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 3.31%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Zhekuang Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Aofei Convertible Bond, Tianzhun Convertible Bond, Outong Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, Liyang Convertible Bond, and Yunji Convertible Bond. The average trading volume of the top ten convertible bonds reached 93.23 billion yuan, with the first - ranked trading volume reaching 179.39 billion yuan [13]. - Approximately 24.22% of the individual convertible bonds rose, about 6.51% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 13.28% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain of more than 2% [13]. - The overall market conversion premium rate declined this week, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 42.75%, a decrease of 12.58 pcts compared to last week. In terms of price ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the price range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the 100 - 110 yuan price range having the largest widening amplitude of 22.90 pcts. In terms of parity ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the parity range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other parity ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the parity range above 120 yuan having the largest widening amplitude of 3.44 pcts [18]. - In terms of the premium rate changes of each industry, the conversion premium rates of 19 industries widened this week, with 6 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2 pcts. Household appliances, media, food and beverages, commercial retail, and automobiles led the widening amplitude, reaching 7.00 pcts, 4.59 pcts, 3.35 pcts, 2.81 pcts, and 2.78 pcts respectively. Social services, petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 8.83 pcts, 5.29 pcts, 3.41 pcts, 3.04 pcts, and 2.62 pcts respectively [26]. - In terms of conversion parity, the parity of 13 industries increased this week, with 10 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials led the widening amplitude, reaching 6.37%, 4.42%, 4.41%, 4.04%, and 3.91% respectively. Household appliances, commercial retail, building decoration, media, and beauty care led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 3.90%, 2.46%, 2.25%, 1.91%, and 1.70% respectively [29]. 1.3. Comparison of Stock - Bond Market Sentiments - From January 26th to January 30th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were both negative, and the weekly gain of convertible bonds was greater than that of underlying stocks. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 3.31% week - on - week and was at the 84.80% quantile level since 2022; the trading volume of the underlying stock market increased by 82.04% week - on - week and was at the 97.00% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of the underlying stocks increased while that of the convertible bonds decreased, and the increase in the trading volume of the underlying stocks was greater and at a higher quantile level. In terms of the proportion of rising and falling stocks, about 13.04% of the convertible bonds and about 23.48% of the underlying stocks closed up this week; about 53.33% of the convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than the underlying stocks. In summary, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [32]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [37]. - Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [38]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [39]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - Q2 2025 GDP shows resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, supported by export gains offsetting construction sector drag [3][4][9] - The industrial production in June increased by 1.0 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year, while the service sector remained stable [3] - The disposable income growth for residents slightly decreased to 5.4%, with consumer spending showing marginal recovery [4] Group 2: Consumer Market Insights - June retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, impacted by the timing of the 618 shopping festival and regional subsidy controls [20][21] - The contribution of "trade-in" spending to retail sales has diminished, with June's trade-in spending progress estimated at 54% [5] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from potential policy support for domestic consumption, particularly in the liquor segment [20][25] Group 3: Industry Specific Analysis - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, with a focus on top liquor brands for strategic investment [20][25] - The machinery sector, particularly 隆盛科技, is positioned for growth with a projected revenue of 2.24 billion yuan in 2024, driven by its EGR systems and electric motor components [31][32] - The company is expanding into humanoid robotics, leveraging its precision manufacturing capabilities and established client relationships with major automotive players [33] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the "emotional consumption" theme, particularly in gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [29][30] - Specific recommendations include leading brands in the liquor industry and innovative companies in the snack sector, which are expected to maintain strong growth [23][25]