1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 12,000 in the short - term [7] - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level, with the price center slightly rising. The market transactions are concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Terminal purchases are weak, and production enterprise inventory is expected to remain high while trade enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Summary Market Review - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level. Except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants, other butadiene rubber plants are operating at a high load. The Shandong market spot price ranges from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. Sinopec's ex - factory price for BR9000 is 11,100 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's is 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton [8] Market Outlook - The domestic butadiene plants have few shutdowns, and the supply remains high. The price center has slightly increased, but the terminal purchases are still weak. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to remain high, and the inventory of trade enterprises is expected to decline slightly. The tire enterprises have flexible production arrangements, with some controlling production. The semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate has increased slightly, while the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate has decreased [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract has oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.99% [12] - As of December 31, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber is - 40 [18] - As of December 31, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts are 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [21] Spot Market - As of December 30, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market is 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of December 30, the butadiene rubber basis is - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - As of December 30, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 538.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.82 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28] - As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.61%, an increase of 0.6% from last week, and the port inventory is 43,300 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from last week [31] Industry - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production is 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [34] - As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber is 76.76%, an increase of 0.5% from last week [34] - As of December 25, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit is 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from last week [37] - As of December 26, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory is 34,540 tons, an increase of 530 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory is 28,850 tons, an increase of 1,250 tons from last week; the trader inventory is 5,690 tons, a decrease of 720 tons from last week [41] Downstream - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [44] - In November 2025, China's tire export volume is 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume is 7,732,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [48] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the report