成文日期：2026年1月6日 报告周期:日报 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) 天然橡胶期货日报 一、当日行情走势 今日上海期货交易所天然橡胶期货主力合约呈现震荡上行走 势。开盘价为 1.58 万元/吨，随后价格稳步攀升，盘中最高价触及 1.613 万元/吨,最低价为 1.579 万元/吨,最终以 1.605 万元/吨收 盘、较上一交易日上涨 1.58%。成交量方面，当日成交 328,277 手；持仓量增加 17,689 手至 199,609 手，显示市场做多情绪有所升 温。 二、现货市场情况 今日上海市场云南国营全乳胶现货价格为 15,650元/吨。 三、主要影响因素分析 | 一丁 展望短期，天然橡胶市场预计维持偏强震荡走势。供给端，1 月下旬泰国东北部、越南等主产区将逐步进入减产期,产区加工厂 冬储需求可能支撑上游原料价格。需求端,尽管当前下游轮胎企业 产能利用率分化,部分企业因库存及订单压力安排短期检修，但 《2026 年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》已于１月１日起执行,预计 将对汽车市场形成支撑，进而带动轮胎需求回暖。 库存方面需要持续关注青岛保税区及国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to follow the overall commodity market sentiment, with prices likely to experience a rapid upward movement followed by high - level consolidation in the short term. As domestic production areas enter the off - season, overseas high - yield periods continue, and port inventories may continue to accumulate, providing short - term support to the market. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation level and downstream holiday arrangements [107]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and exports to China totaled 2.518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%. In November 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, and consumption was expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons. In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 887,491 units [5][6][7]. Price Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber prices increased significantly, with Singapore TSR20 rubber having the largest increase. On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,780 yuan/ton, 12,820 yuan/ton, 180.50 cents/kg, and 339.50 yen/kg respectively, with month - on - month increases of 3.88%, 3.47%, 3.91%, and 2.35% [10][12]. Basis and Calendar Spread - On December 26, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU05 was - 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 41.18% and a year - on - year increase of 40.37%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50.00% and a year - on - year increase of 117.65% [13]. Other Spreads - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased, while the spread of NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The spreads of non - standard basis and light - dark color also changed. The price of substitute synthetic rubber increased due to factors such as cost support and macro expectations [19][24][27]. Fundamental Data Supply - Weather: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching its end, and the rainfall is decreasing; the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, and the temperature is relatively low. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [43][45]. - Raw Material Prices: As the Hainan production area gradually stops tapping, the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber has significantly cooled. The high - yield period of overseas rubber tapping exerts pressure on supply, and Thai raw material prices are weak [47]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has narrowed. The spread between the price of Hainan rubber latex entering the concentrated latex factory and that entering the whole - milk factory has also narrowed, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping [51]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally recovered [54]. - Delivery Profits: The delivery profit in Hainan has recovered, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so data updates have been suspended [57]. - Exports: In November, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports. In October, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and exports to China rebounded seasonally. In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China decreased significantly [64][70][76]. - Imports: In November, China imported 643,600 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber), a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [82]. Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: During the period, the capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises fluctuated. The inventory of tires continued to accumulate [85]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In November, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. Passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. Tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [88]. - Road Transport Turnover: In November, the freight turnover on roads rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [92]. Inventory - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally, with a larger increase in dark - colored rubber inventory than in light - colored rubber inventory [98]. - Futures Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 93,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.77% [104]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The Hainan production area is gradually stopping tapping, and overseas high - yield periods continue to put pressure on supply. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [107]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises fluctuated, with semi - steel tires having a slight increase and all - steel tires being dragged down by maintenance [107]. - View: The natural rubber market is expected to experience high - level consolidation after a rapid upward movement. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and downstream holiday arrangements [107]. - Valuation: The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR narrowed, while the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU widened [107]. - Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see or short - on - rallies approach for RU; gradually increase long - cash - short - futures positions and pay attention to capital inflows in the market; observe cross - variety spreads [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to follow the overall commodity market sentiment in the short - term, with prices likely to experience a rapid rise followed by high - level consolidation. As the domestic production areas enter the off - season at the end of the month and the overseas high - yield period continues, upstream factories are stocking up moderately, leading to a slight decline in raw material prices. The continuous accumulation of port inventory may provide short - term support to the natural rubber market. Attention should be paid to the extent of inventory accumulation and downstream holiday arrangements [103]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, with 2.518 million tons exported to China, a year - on - year increase of 24% [5]. - In November 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, and consumption to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons. For the whole year of 2025, global production was expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 887,491 units, and the cumulative sales in the first 11 months increased by 1.4% year - on - year to 9.86 million units [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber prices rose significantly, with Singapore TSR20 rubber having the largest increase. On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 increased by 3.88%, 3.47%, 3.91%, and 2.35% respectively compared to the previous period [10][12]. - The basis and spreads showed different trends. For example, the RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads increased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 spread decreased [19]. - The prices of substitute products, such as domestic butadiene rubber, increased this week. The factors driving the increase in supply and market prices mainly included the expectation of reduced production profits for butadiene rubber due to the destocking of butadiene in January of the next year, the strengthening of cost - side support, and the expectation of macro - level benefits such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January of the next year [33]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching its end with decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed with relatively low temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [41][43]. - Raw material prices: As Hainan's production area gradually stops tapping, the enthusiasm of factories for purchasing rubber has significantly decreased. Affected by the high - yield period of overseas rubber tapping, Thai raw material prices are weak [45]. - Export situation: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with only latex showing a slight month - on - month increase. In October 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a sharp decrease in the export volume of standard rubber. In October 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a relatively large increase in latex exports. In November 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the export volume to China decreased significantly month - on - month [62][68][74][76]. - Import situation: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: During the period, the capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The inventory of tires continued to accumulate. In November 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. The sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. The export of tires recovered slightly month - on - month [83][86]. - Road transportation: In November 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [90]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber in China continued to accumulate seasonally, with the accumulation of dark - colored rubber being greater than that of light - colored rubber. The inventory accumulation continued to put pressure on prices, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the later period [96].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶 区间震荡为主 宝城期货 陈栋 近期，沪胶期货 2605 合约延续区间震荡走势。一方面，国内云南、海南等天然橡胶主产区已步入停 割季，供应压力有所缓解。同时，国内新车产销量好于市场预期，为胶价提供利多支撑。另一方面，轮胎 出口遇阻，青岛保税区橡胶库存持续攀升，偏空因素不容忽视。在多空因素交织背景下，预计沪胶期货短 期内难以摆脱区间震荡格局。 发表于 2025.12.24 期货日报第六版 从季节性规律及产区调研情况来看，截至 2025 年 12 月中旬，国内天然橡胶两大主产区——云南与海 南已陆续进入停割状态。数据显示，受拉尼娜现象影响，云南产区虽部分地区降雨有所减少，但气温显著 下降成为推动停割的核心因素。目前云南产区原料产出已极为稀少，市场流通以库存胶块为主，鲜胶乳的 收购与加工环节基本停滞。 相较于云南，海南产区停割进程稍晚，目前已进入收尾阶段。上周末，受气温走低影响，海南胶水中 干物质含量显著下降，日产量大幅萎缩。受此拖累，当地天然乳胶加工厂生产积极性受挫，民营工厂已于 12 月 20 日前后陆续停工，2025 年割胶季基本宣告 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-09 供应端持续宽松，油脂承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8706.00元/吨，环比变化-64元，幅度-0.73%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8230.00 元/吨，环比变化-36.00元，幅度-0.44%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9502.00元/吨，环比变化-116.00元，幅度-1.21%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8670.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.57%，现货基差P05+-36.00，环比变化 +14.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.47%，现货基差Y05+170.00， 环比变化-4.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9750.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元，幅度-1.22%，现货基差 OI05+248.00，环比变化-4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，咨询机构AgRural周一表示，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植面积已达预 期面积的94%。巴西2025/26年度玉米总产量预计为1.353亿吨，而上一年度为1.411亿吨。马来 ...

多空交织驱动不显，或将维持震荡运行 研究报告 橡胶周报 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 的免责声明。 摘要： 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约震荡偏强，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，宏观方面，上周三美政府结束史上最长"停摆"， 提振市场情绪；国内公布 10 月经济"成绩单"，显示经济增速 有所放缓。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端存在支撑。 10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中国累计进口 天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率较 上周均微幅上升。上周全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终端车 市方面，终端乘用车 10 月销量同环比下滑，需求端利多驱动不 足。前 9 个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量累计同比小幅增长。随着后 续天气转冷，需求存在转弱预期。库存方面，上周上期所库存 较上周小幅下降；中国天然橡胶社会库存和青岛总库存环比均 小幅回升，其中青岛一般贸易库存累库幅度较大。 总体来看， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was suppressed by a bearish sentiment, with rubber prices showing weak performance. The offer price of imported rubber first rose and then fell, and the trading atmosphere in the market was average. The futures market was generally weak, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic natural rubber market was rather dull. Downstream enterprises only maintained a small amount of rigid demand inquiries, and the follow - up of actual orders was insufficient [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainfall still affects the supply of rubber sap, but the purchase price remains stable due to the pressure on processing costs. In Hainan, the weather is good, and raw material output is increasing seasonally. The orders and profits of local processing plants have improved, and they continue to increase the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly decreased compared to before the holiday, with the bonded warehouse showing inventory accumulation and the general trade warehouse showing inventory reduction. In terms of demand, enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday have resumed production as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has significantly increased. However, the overall market has not shown significant improvement, and some enterprises are still flexibly controlling production to manage inventory. It is expected that the operation of enterprise equipment will remain stable in the short term [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,450 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market was bearish this week, with rubber prices weak. Imported rubber offers rose first and then fell, market trading was average, and downstream enterprises had limited demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has less rubber sap supply due to rainfall, while Hainan has normal tapping and increasing raw material output. Qingdao Port's total inventory decreased slightly, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses reducing inventory. Demand has recovered, but the overall market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are controlling production [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,500 - 15,200, and the nr2512 contract between 12,000 - 12,450 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 4.05% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 1.09% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided in the summary about position changes. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of October 17, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 10, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was 50 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 16, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 136,630 tons, a decrease of 7,760 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 40,119 tons, a decrease of 1,210 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of October 16, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of October 16, the 20 - rubber basis was 886 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: In Thailand, as of October 17, the price of field latex was 54.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.2 (-0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of October 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 14.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.9 US dollars/ton from last week. In China, as of October 16, the price of Yunnan rubber sap was 13,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [40][43]. - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [46]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500 tons, a decrease of 0.11%. The bonded area inventory was 70,800 tons, an increase of 2.02%; the general trade inventory was 385,200 tons, a decrease of 0.49%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [50]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's tire export volume was 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire export volume was 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber price increase was limited due to mixed factors. The offer prices in the imported rubber market moved upwards, and downstream factories showed active buying. The offer prices of domestic natural rubber spot followed the market upward, but downstream buying was lukewarm [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's supply is tight due to weather, while Hainan's production is normal. Some factories are competing for raw materials due to potential typhoons. Qingdao's total inventory is decreasing, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses continuing to deplete. Demand-side tire capacity utilization increased this week but may decline slightly next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract between 12,480 - 12,900 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Mixed factors limited the upward movement of rubber prices. Imported rubber offers rose, and downstream buying was active. Domestic spot offers followed the market up, but downstream buying was weak [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan's raw material supply is tight, while Hainan's is normal. Some factories are competing for raw materials due to potential typhoons. Qingdao's total inventory is decreasing. Tire capacity utilization may decline slightly next week [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,480 - 12,900 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber fell 1.76% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell 1.57% [11]. - As of August 22, the spread between Shanghai rubber's September and January contracts was -955, and the spread between 20 - rubber's September and October contracts was -20 [19]. - As of August 22, Shanghai rubber's warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1,460 tons from last week; 20 - rubber's warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1,612 tons from last week [24]. - **Spot Market** - As of August 21, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - As of August 21, the basis of 20 - rubber was 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was -1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of August 21, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.7 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg; cup lump was 49.2 (-0.6) Thai baht/kg. As of August 22, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 37.8 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 dollars/ton from last week [39]. - As of August 21, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Import and Inventory** - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [46]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decline of 0.87% [50]. - **Downstream** - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [53]. - In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative heavy - truck sales were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the domestic natural rubber futures main contract fluctuated upward and rose slightly. Looking ahead, the overall macro - atmosphere warmed up last week, which boosted the rubber price. The supply side had support, the demand side performed okay, and the social inventory and Qingdao total inventory of natural rubber continued to decline with an expanding decline rate. It is expected that the disk may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation in the short term [8][91] - The report suggests that for unilateral operations, investors should continue to hold long positions, consider taking profits at high prices, and pay attention to the pressure near the semi - annual line; for arbitrage, consider conducting 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage at an appropriate time; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][93] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 15,565 to 16,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price fluctuated upward and rose slightly overall. As of the close on the afternoon of August 15, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,905 yuan/ton, rising 355 points or 2.28% for the week [6][15] Spot Price - As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned full - latex (SCRWF) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week [20] - As of August 15, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,230 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [23] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned full - latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,155 yuan/ton, an expansion of 105 yuan/ton from the previous week [27] - As of August 15, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber rose slightly compared with the previous week [30] Important Market Information - Macroeconomic data: US July PPI soared, CPI was mixed, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was over 90%. The US government expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and the US Treasury Secretary called for a rate cut [30][31][32] - International relations: Trump and Putin held a meeting in Alaska, and Sino - US reciprocal tariffs were extended for 90 days [31][35] - Domestic economic data: In July, China's industrial added value and social consumption increased year - on - year, and the real estate investment decreased. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined month - on - month, and the inventory decreased [35][36] - Automobile industry data: In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [37] Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 835,400 tons, an increase of 112,700 tons or 15.6% from the previous month. The output of Thailand increased significantly, while that of Indonesia decreased slightly [43] - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative output was 4.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [48][52] - As of June 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [56] - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 634,000 tons, a 27.2% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [90] Demand - side Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased by 2.28% to 72.07%, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased by 2.09% to 63.09% [58] - As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71% [62][65] - As of July 31, 2025, the monthly sales volume of Chinese heavy - duty trucks was 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26% [71] - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of Chinese tire casings was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [74][79] - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 4.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [90] Inventory - side Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 179,930 tons, an increase of 3,650 tons from the previous week [89] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.278 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.85%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 480,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [89] - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 619,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24% to 75,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11% to 544,600 tons [89] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Currently in the peak supply season of global natural rubber, recent rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas affected the release of new rubber, boosting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year [90] - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly, and that of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tire enterprises eased, while the inventory reduction of semi - steel tire enterprises was still difficult. Downstream product enterprises remained on the sidelines and maintained just - in - time procurement. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - duty truck sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [90] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao total inventory continued to decline [90] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The overall macro - atmosphere warmed up last week, with mixed US July inflation data, Sino - US reciprocal tariffs extended for 90 days, and the US - Russia meeting boosting market risk appetite. The supply side has pressure due to increased new rubber output, and the demand side has mixed performance. Considering the decline in inventory, the disk is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation in the short term [8][91] - Key points to follow include macro - sentiment changes, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigation updates, and Sino - US tariff changes [92]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.15」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周利好持续提振，胶价呈现上涨趋势。进口胶市场报盘上涨，贸易商轮换，工厂少 量补货，实单成交表现坚挺。期货盘面宽幅震荡，国产天然橡胶重心不稳，持货商报盘谨慎，下 游多持观望态度，买盘热情不高，实单成交较为清淡。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨天气偏多，原料供应承压明显，收购价 格保持坚挺；海南产区降水天气偏多，割胶作业开展受限，岛内原料供应呈现收紧态势，但现货 方面高价成交困难，当地加工厂高价原料补库积极性下滑，原料收购价格下跌。近期青岛港口现 货总库存继续呈现去库态势，保税及一般贸易库均呈现去库，一般贸易去库幅度环比扩大，海外 货源到港入库量维持偏少态势，整体入库率环比下滑，而部分轮胎企业继续小幅补货，叠加前期 订单陆续提货，整体出库率环比增加，从而使得青岛现货总库存继续呈现去库态势。 ...