Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber price increase was limited due to mixed factors. The offer prices in the imported rubber market moved upwards, and downstream factories showed active buying. The offer prices of domestic natural rubber spot followed the market upward, but downstream buying was lukewarm [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's supply is tight due to weather, while Hainan's production is normal. Some factories are competing for raw materials due to potential typhoons. Qingdao's total inventory is decreasing, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses continuing to deplete. Demand-side tire capacity utilization increased this week but may decline slightly next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract between 12,480 - 12,900 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Mixed factors limited the upward movement of rubber prices. Imported rubber offers rose, and downstream buying was active. Domestic spot offers followed the market up, but downstream buying was weak [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan's raw material supply is tight, while Hainan's is normal. Some factories are competing for raw materials due to potential typhoons. Qingdao's total inventory is decreasing. Tire capacity utilization may decline slightly next week [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,480 - 12,900 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber fell 1.76% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell 1.57% [11]. - As of August 22, the spread between Shanghai rubber's September and January contracts was -955, and the spread between 20 - rubber's September and October contracts was -20 [19]. - As of August 22, Shanghai rubber's warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1,460 tons from last week; 20 - rubber's warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1,612 tons from last week [24]. - **Spot Market** - As of August 21, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - As of August 21, the basis of 20 - rubber was 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was -1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of August 21, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.7 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg; cup lump was 49.2 (-0.6) Thai baht/kg. As of August 22, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 37.8 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 dollars/ton from last week [39]. - As of August 21, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Import and Inventory** - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [46]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decline of 0.87% [50]. - **Downstream** - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [53]. - In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative heavy - truck sales were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the domestic natural rubber futures main contract fluctuated upward and rose slightly. Looking ahead, the overall macro - atmosphere warmed up last week, which boosted the rubber price. The supply side had support, the demand side performed okay, and the social inventory and Qingdao total inventory of natural rubber continued to decline with an expanding decline rate. It is expected that the disk may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation in the short term [8][91] - The report suggests that for unilateral operations, investors should continue to hold long positions, consider taking profits at high prices, and pay attention to the pressure near the semi - annual line; for arbitrage, consider conducting 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage at an appropriate time; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][93] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 15,565 to 16,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price fluctuated upward and rose slightly overall. As of the close on the afternoon of August 15, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,905 yuan/ton, rising 355 points or 2.28% for the week [6][15] Spot Price - As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned full - latex (SCRWF) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week [20] - As of August 15, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,230 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [23] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned full - latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,155 yuan/ton, an expansion of 105 yuan/ton from the previous week [27] - As of August 15, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber rose slightly compared with the previous week [30] Important Market Information - Macroeconomic data: US July PPI soared, CPI was mixed, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was over 90%. The US government expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and the US Treasury Secretary called for a rate cut [30][31][32] - International relations: Trump and Putin held a meeting in Alaska, and Sino - US reciprocal tariffs were extended for 90 days [31][35] - Domestic economic data: In July, China's industrial added value and social consumption increased year - on - year, and the real estate investment decreased. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined month - on - month, and the inventory decreased [35][36] - Automobile industry data: In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [37] Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 835,400 tons, an increase of 112,700 tons or 15.6% from the previous month. The output of Thailand increased significantly, while that of Indonesia decreased slightly [43] - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative output was 4.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [48][52] - As of June 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [56] - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 634,000 tons, a 27.2% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [90] Demand - side Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased by 2.28% to 72.07%, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased by 2.09% to 63.09% [58] - As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71% [62][65] - As of July 31, 2025, the monthly sales volume of Chinese heavy - duty trucks was 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26% [71] - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of Chinese tire casings was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [74][79] - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 4.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [90] Inventory - side Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 179,930 tons, an increase of 3,650 tons from the previous week [89] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.278 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.85%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 480,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [89] - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 619,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24% to 75,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11% to 544,600 tons [89] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Currently in the peak supply season of global natural rubber, recent rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas affected the release of new rubber, boosting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year [90] - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly, and that of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tire enterprises eased, while the inventory reduction of semi - steel tire enterprises was still difficult. Downstream product enterprises remained on the sidelines and maintained just - in - time procurement. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - duty truck sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [90] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao total inventory continued to decline [90] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The overall macro - atmosphere warmed up last week, with mixed US July inflation data, Sino - US reciprocal tariffs extended for 90 days, and the US - Russia meeting boosting market risk appetite. The supply side has pressure due to increased new rubber output, and the demand side has mixed performance. Considering the decline in inventory, the disk is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation in the short term [8][91] - Key points to follow include macro - sentiment changes, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigation updates, and Sino - US tariff changes [92]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the macro and fundamental factors of the natural rubber market weakened from strong, leading to a high - level correction in rubber prices. The import rubber market reported falling offers, with traders rotating positions, closing arbitrage positions, and increasing far - month shipments. The futures market weakened significantly, the spot price of domestic rubber declined, and downstream buyers were cautious and hesitant [7]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, heavy rain has led to a shortage of rubber, and concentrated milk factories are under pressure to deliver orders and have to raise prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, local rainfall has disrupted the seasonal increase in raw material output. The spot market's bearish sentiment has strengthened, and local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a continued decline in the glue purchase price. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase, with bonded inventories decreasing and general trade inventories increasing. The arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods remain low, but the overall outbound volume is lower than expected due to terminal观望 [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises has declined due to maintenance. Although the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises next week will boost the overall capacity utilization rate, some enterprises have maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, so the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14300 - 14800 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12600 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The macro and fundamental factors weakened, causing rubber prices to correct from high levels. The import rubber market reported falling offers, and the futures market weakened. The spot price of domestic rubber declined, and downstream buyers were cautious [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has rain - induced shortages, and Hainan's output increase is slow. The spot market is bearish, and processing plants are less willing to replenish raw materials. Qingdao Port's inventory shows a slight increase. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has declined due to maintenance, and the overall improvement space is limited next week [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14300 - 14800, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 8.18% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber closed down 8.6% week - on - week [12]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the summary, only mentions the changes in the top 20 positions of Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber [13][15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of August 1, the spread between September and January of Shanghai rubber was - 850, and the spread between September and October of 20 - grade rubber was - 45 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 177,630 tons, a decrease of 4,390 tons from last week; 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 39,716 tons, an increase of 2,318 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Shanghai Rubber Basis**: As of July 31, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - grade Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of July 31, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 383 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of July 31, the field glue price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 47.7 (- 2.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 1, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 46.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11.4 US dollars/ton from last week. As of July 31, the glue price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [38][41]. - **Import**: In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [44]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [48]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production**: As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.76%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.62%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.34% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. Cumulatively, from January to July this year, China's heavy - truck market sold about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [57].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周宏观气氛偏多，胶价继续上移。进口胶市场报盘上涨，贸易商轮换，套利盘加仓， 工厂刚需询盘。期货盘面偏强震荡，现货报盘重心上移，市场观望情绪较浓，下游接货积极性欠 佳，多维持刚需采购。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨影响，胶水较少，收购价格保持坚挺； 海南产区局部存在降水扰动，岛内原料供应季节性增量缓慢，受期现货行情上涨提振，部分加工 厂对原料加价抢收情绪持续升温。近期青岛港口现货总库存呈现去库态势，保税及一般贸易库均 呈现小幅去库，海外货源到港入库较前期明显减少，且胶价上涨推动轮胎企业补库意愿，进而带 动整体出库量大于入库量，青岛港口总库存呈现去库态势。需求方面，个别意外检修企业生产恢 复，带动本周国内轮胎整体产能利用率小幅提升，临近月底，企业整体出货表现不及预期，成品 库存小幅增加， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of the rubber market remains weak, and the upward space for price increases is limited. Although the natural rubber market has shown a recovery trend driven by capital sentiment and synthetic rubber, raw material prices are showing signs of weakness, weakening cost - support expectations. High inventory levels in the spot market also suppress the market, restricting the rebound space of rubber prices. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to remain range - bound [76]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In May 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.2% to 1.04 million tons, an increase of 35.6% from the previous month, while consumption was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.27 million tons, an increase of 1.7% from the previous month. For the whole year of 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. The significant price fluctuations in the natural rubber market in May were mainly due to increased tapping activities caused by favorable weather, along with concerns from decreased tire industry demand and trade - tariff uncertainties. Trade tensions eased due to Sino - US negotiations [5]. - China plans to pilot a 0% tariff on rubber directly imported from the Thai National Rubber Farmers' Network through the Mekong River channel (northern route). Chinese factories are preparing to directly purchase 300 tons of rubber from Thai farmers, which has worried Chinese traders who buy rubber from southern Thailand [6]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber markets rose, with Japanese rubber showing a relatively large increase. On June 27, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 were 14,045 yuan/ton, 12,160 yuan/ton, 163.60 cents/kg, and 313.70 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 1.04%, 1.46%, 1.36%, and 4.60% [9][10]. Basis and Spread - The basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 45 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 825 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1.20% compared to June 20, 2025, and a year - on - year increase of 29.49% [11]. - The spreads of RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spreads of RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 increased. On June 27, 2025, the values of RU09 - NR09, RU09 - BR09, NR09 - TSR20 09, and RU09 - Tokyo RSS3 09 spreads were 1,885 yuan/ton, 2,870 yuan/ton, 441.82 yuan/ton, and - 1,518.60 yuan/ton respectively [18][19]. - This week, the offer center of the imported rubber market weakened. The offer center of domestic natural rubber spot followed the narrow - range adjustment of the market. The difference between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber decreased, and the difference between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber also decreased [21][26]. - Crude oil drove the decline of synthetic rubber, while RU rose slightly, and the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened. On June 27, 2025, the prices of domestic mainstream butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were 11,550 yuan/ton and 11,950 yuan/ton respectively [29][30]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR rebounded to a high level, and the settled funds rebounded to a high level. On June 27, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 8.36 and 17.31 respectively, and the settled funds were 4.51 billion yuan and 1.169 billion yuan respectively [32][33]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeast was slightly lower this week, with more rainfall year - on - year, while the weather in the south was relatively normal. In China, rainfall in Hainan decreased, and rainfall in Yunnan was higher year - on - year [37][38]. - Overseas tapping operations gradually resumed, and raw material purchase prices significantly weakened during the period. On June 27, 2025, the prices of Thai cup lump, Thai latex, Thai smoked sheet, Thai raw sheet, Hainan latex (for whole - milk production), and Yunnan latex (for whole - milk production) were 47.15 baht/kg, 57 baht/kg, 65.79 baht/kg, 63 baht/kg, 12,400 yuan/ton, and 13,500 yuan/ton respectively [42][43]. - The spread between Thai latex and cup lump slightly increased, while the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factories and that for whole - milk factories decreased. On June 27, 2025, the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 9.85 baht/kg, and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factories and that for whole - milk factories was 1,400 yuan/ton [49][50]. - As Thai raw material prices decreased, production profits improved. On June 27, 2025, the production profits of Thai standard rubber, Thai smoked sheet, Thai concentrated latex, and Hainan concentrated latex were - 232 yuan/ton, 1,409 yuan/ton, - 9.72 yuan/ton, and 619.48 yuan/ton respectively [52][53]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [56][57]. Demand - During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample tire enterprises showed mixed trends. The overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises declined, while that of all - steel tire enterprises slightly increased. Tire inventories accumulated. On June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 62.23% and 70.40% respectively, and the inventory days were 41.93 days and 48.15 days respectively [60][61]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained good year - on - year performance. The sales of passenger cars and heavy trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 437,800 tons and 289,100 tons respectively, and the sales of passenger cars and heavy trucks were 2.3518 million and 88,800 respectively [64][65]. Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate this period, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory accumulation in Qingdao's general trade exceeded expectations. As of June 27, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 192,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 214,900 tons [68][72]. Operation Suggestions - Given the weak fundamentals of the rubber market, the upward space for price increases is limited. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to remain range - bound. As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 6.173 million tons, and China's natural rubber social inventory was 12.86 million tons [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the raw material prices in the natural rubber market increased, driving up the price center. The import rubber market recovered from the oversold situation, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber also rebounded. However, downstream demand was weak, leading to low trading sentiment [9]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, the supply of rubber latex is increasing due to improved weather, and raw material purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, typhoon weather has temporarily disrupted tapping, tightening the supply of raw materials and slowing down the production of local processing plants [9]. - Last week, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased, while the general trade warehouses continued to destock. The arrival of overseas goods decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. Tire companies mostly made rigid - demand purchases at lower prices, and the total outbound volume in Qingdao exceeded the inbound volume [9]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies increased this week, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 14,250 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,600 - 12,200 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material prices in the natural rubber market increased, and the price center of rubber moved up. The import rubber market recovered from oversold, and the spot price of domestic natural rubber also increased. However, downstream demand was poor, and traders faced difficulties in selling [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, the supply of rubber latex is increasing, and raw material prices are firm. In Hainan, typhoon weather has disrupted tapping. The inventory in Qingdao has changed, with bonded warehouses increasing and general trade warehouses destocking. The arrival of overseas goods has decreased, and tire companies' purchasing sentiment has improved. The capacity utilization rate of tire companies is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 14,250, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,600 - 12,200 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose 1.65% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - gauge rubber rose 1.05% [12]. - **Spread**: As of June 13, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [25]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 13, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 193,070 tons, a decrease of 460 tons from last week; 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts were 34,876 tons, an increase of 13,003 tons from last week [29]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of June 12, the price of state - owned full - latex was 13,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [34]. - **20 - gauge and Non - standard Basis**: As of June 12, the basis of 20 - gauge rubber was 262 yuan/ton, an increase of 89 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand**: As of June 12, the price of field latex in Thailand was 56.75 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 46.55 (+1.8) Thai baht/kg. As of June 13, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 61.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 60.8 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of June 12, the price of rubber latex in Yunnan was 13,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [45]. 3.3.2 Import - In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.93% and a year - on - year increase of 41.64%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 24.25% [48]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67%. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decline of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 0.54% [51]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Production**: As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In April 2025, China's tire exports were 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative tire exports were 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01% [58]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [61].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.18」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场利好刺激有限，胶价低位震荡。进口胶市场报盘下跌，贸易商轮换， 工厂采购情绪不减，实单成交略买涨；国产胶现货报盘跟随期货盘面重心走低，下游缺乏订单， 实际买盘积极性欠佳，成交以刚需为主。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区逐步开割，云南产区开割过渡期，原料产出有限，收购价格坚挺； 海南产区处于开割初期，整体胶水产量低位，预计月底前后将逐步大面积开割。上周青岛现货总 库存呈现小幅去库态势，保税库存维持累库，一般贸易库存继续呈现去库，现货价格下调刺激轮 胎企业采购积极性，青岛仓库提货量明显比前期提升，但时处海外低产期，出库量大于入库量， 带动青岛总库存呈现小幅去库。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率小幅波动，半钢胎企业 产能利用率继续走弱，成品库存攀升，部分企业存适度降负调整；全钢胎企业排产略有提升，企 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market saw a significant decline in rubber prices due to the continuous fermentation of macro - negative factors. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and factories' enthusiasm for restocking at low prices increased. The spot market for domestic natural rubber had average trading volume, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market became weaker under the influence of macro - negative factors. Market participants were mostly cautious and observant, and traders were not very active in quoting prices. Downstream factories made purchases based on rigid demand [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. In the Yunnan producing area, the tapping progress is normal, but in the initial stage, there is less latex, and the weakening of spot prices has affected the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to sell rubber, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials. Last week, the total spot inventory in Qingdao showed a slight increase. The bonded inventory continued to increase, while the general trade inventory decreased. Tire factories' enthusiasm for restocking at low prices improved, and the outbound volume of general trade warehouses increased month - on - month. However, with the arrival of imported goods, the overall inbound volume was greater than the outbound volume, and the inventory still mainly increased [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month this week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires varied, with some enterprises that had maintenance at the end of last month gradually resuming normal operation, and some other enterprises appropriately reducing their production loads. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises decreased, and the maintenance arrangements of individual enterprises dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to weaken steadily [7]. - The tariff policy has raised concerns about trade contraction in the market, having a major impact on the global economy and trade pattern. In the short term, it will still cause disturbances in the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: This week, the natural rubber market declined significantly due to macro - negative factors. Import rubber offers dropped, and factories' restocking enthusiasm increased. The domestic spot market had average trading, and the trading atmosphere weakened. Market participants were cautious, and downstream factories made rigid - demand purchases [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global rubber - producing areas are starting to tap. Yunnan's tapping is normal, but raw material supply is tight. Qingdao's inventory increased slightly. Tire factories' restocking enthusiasm improved, but overall inventory still increased. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to weaken steadily [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the impact of tariff policies on the market, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 7.98%. The main contract price of 20 - rubber also fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 7.97% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of April 11, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 165 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of April 11, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 200,110 tons, an increase of 110 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 77,717 tons, an increase of 25,604 tons from last week [24]. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis**: As of April 11, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,600 yuan/ton from last week. As of April 11, the basis of Shanghai rubber was - 545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of April 10, the basis of 20 - rubber was 329 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week. As of April 10, the non - standard basis was - 425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of April 11, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57.5 (- 11) baht/kg; the cup lump price was 48.3 (- 12.25) baht/kg. As of April 11, the theoretical processing profit of smoked sheets was 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 121 US dollars/ton from last week; the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 107 US dollars/ton, an increase of 193 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of April 10, the latex price in Yunnan was 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,600 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,500 yuan/ton [40]. Import - In February 2025, China's import volume of natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) was 503,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year increase of 44.85%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1,091,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.17% [43]. Inventory in Qingdao - As of April 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 620,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 800 tons, an increase of 0.13%. The bonded area inventory was 80,200 tons, an increase of 5.71%; the general trade inventory was 540,500 tons, a decrease of 0.64%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.83 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.35 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.78 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.62 percentage points [47]. Downstream - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of April 10, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 67.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.97 percentage points [50]. - **Tire Exports**: In February 2025, China's tire export volume was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.34% and a year - on - year increase of 4.40%. From January to February, China's cumulative tire export volume was 1,198,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.62%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 218,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.55% and a year - on - year increase of 7.28%. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 501,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.69%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 278,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.34% and a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 645,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.70% [53]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In March 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month increase of 29% compared with February and a year - on - year decrease of about 9% compared with 116,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to March, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 259,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [56]. 4. Options Market Analysis - No information provided