热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯天然橡胶分析师 吴伟茹 【导语】2月14日，中国正式宣布中方将于2026年5月1日起对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措，包 含天然橡胶产胶国科特迪瓦、利比里亚、尼日利亚、喀麦隆、加纳等主要产胶国，占非洲天然橡胶总产 量的98%左右。近些年非洲胶产量的增长成为全球产量增长的核心力量，且中国自科特迪瓦进口标准胶 占比逐渐提升，若执行零关税政策，中国自科特迪瓦的进口成本下降、进口量增长且对其他深色胶价格 与需求形成冲击，那么本文重点介绍当前非洲天然橡胶供给地位及产业优势现状。 全球天然橡胶产量增长内驱力——非洲橡胶 从全球天然橡胶产量供应结构趋势来看，近几年亚洲主产国产量变化仍是影响全球供应的核心，但全球 产量增长的核心力量来自于非洲胶及新兴产胶国产量增长，主要原因在于非洲因全球天然橡胶需求的增 长而吸引了更多投资，从而令近些年橡胶加工产能投放增长明显，2025年非洲市场橡胶加工产能接近 300万吨水平。凭借低廉的劳动力和土地成本，以及新技术和新品种的应用，非洲天然橡胶的单产得以 提升，进而推动了该地区天然橡胶产量的增长。一些非洲国家还出台 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market prices were volatile at high levels. Imported rubber prices rose, while domestic spot prices also increased. However, demand showed no significant improvement, and actual orders were average [10]. - Currently, domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas production is transitioning from peak to the reduction period, resulting in a decrease in overall supply. Qingdao port inventories are accumulating, and this trend is expected to continue during the Spring Festival as downstream enterprises complete their stocking and gradually enter the holiday period [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined significantly this week, and it will reach an annual low during the Spring Festival holiday next week [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to overseas macro - situations, geopolitical issues, and overseas production area conditions during the long holiday [9]. - Market review: Imported rubber market prices rose, and domestic spot prices increased due to external macro - sentiment and higher futures prices. However, demand remained weak [10]. - Market outlook: Supply is decreasing, port inventories are accumulating, and tire enterprise capacity utilization will be low during the Spring Festival [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - Price trends: The main contract price of Shanghai Rubber futures rose 1.46% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose 1% week - on - week [13]. - Position analysis: Not detailed in the summary part, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai Rubber and 20 - rubber [16][18]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13, the spread between Shanghai Rubber's May and September contracts was 120, and the spread between 20 - rubber's March and April contracts was - 60 [25]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12, Shanghai Rubber warehouse receipts were 112,570 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,803 tons, a decrease of 201 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic natural rubber: As of February 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - 20 - rubber basis and non - standard basis: As of February 12, the 20 - rubber basis was 365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 13, the price of field latex in Thailand was 62.3 (+3) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - Domestic: Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the off - season [45]. - **Import Volume** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [51]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78% [54]. - **Downstream** - Tire capacity utilization: As of February 12, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [57]. - Tire export: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [60]. - Domestic demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with macro - sentiment, leading to an oscillating upward trend in rubber prices. The offer price of imported rubber rose, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, with weaker purchasing sentiment compared to last week. The spot price of domestic natural rubber increased, and the futures market's upward trend improved market trading sentiment, with downstream inquiry activity slightly better and cautious procurement based on rigid demand, but actual orders were average [7]. - Currently, the main domestic natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, and the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and then a halt, resulting in a decrease in total supply. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao ports has slightly decreased, with bonded warehouses showing a reduction and the inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses significantly narrowing. Overseas supply has entered a seasonal reduction phase, with fewer ship arrivals compared to the previous period. The inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses has started to decline. The continuous decline in rubber prices in the first ten days of the month stimulated downstream replenishment enthusiasm, increasing the overall outbound volume and narrowing the month - on - month inventory accumulation in general trade [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated this week. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises, supported by foreign trade orders, slightly increased their production schedules, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still controlled production, slightly dragging down the capacity utilization rate. Recently, the prices of various raw materials have remained high. Under cost pressure, some sample enterprises have arranged the "Spring Festival" holiday from the end of January to early February, and the production schedules are gradually coming to an end, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline [7]. - It is recommended that the ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 17,000 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,600 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market's fundamentals and macro - sentiment combined to push rubber prices up in an oscillating manner. Imported rubber offers rose, but factory purchasing was weak. Domestic spot prices increased, and downstream inquiry improved slightly with cautious procurement [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is decreasing as domestic main producing areas are in the off - season and overseas supply is seasonally reducing. Qingdao port inventory is showing a slight decline. Demand - side capacity utilization of tire enterprises is likely to decline in the short term due to cost pressure and holiday arrangements [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 16,000 - 17,000, and the nr2604 contract between 13,000 - 13,600 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose 0.28% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - gauge rubber rose 1.18% week - on - week [10]. - As of January 30, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 135, and the spread between the March and April contracts of 20 - gauge rubber was - 30 [20]. - As of January 29, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 110,970 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts were 53,827 tons, a decrease of 1,512 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - As of January 29, the price of state - owned full - latex was 16,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - As of January 29, the basis of 20 - gauge rubber was 418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 486 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - As of January 29, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 58.3 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 53.5 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of January 30, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - The Yunnan and Hainan producing areas in China are in the off - season [42]. - **Import and Inventory** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [48]. - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse samples decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [52]. - **Downstream** - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points [55]. - In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [58]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [61]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][90][91] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures ranged from 15,780 to 16,480 yuan/ton, showing a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline. As of the close on January 16, 2026, it closed at 15,835 yuan/ton, down 195 points or 1.22% for the week [14] Spot Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to last week. As of January 16, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 135 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton compared to last week [26] - As of January 16, the domestic price of natural rubber decreased slightly compared to last week, while the foreign price increased slightly [30] Important Market Information - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters. There were different responses from various parties, and Trump said he would announce the next Fed chairman in the coming weeks [31] - Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, and Iran said it was ready for all possibilities [31] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000, and the four - week moving average reached a two - year low [32] - The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, and gave different growth forecasts for the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [32] - Trump expressed his hope for the Fed to cut interest rates, and mentioned plans for people's livelihood burden reduction, government shutdown, and housing policy [32] - The US budget deficit in December 2025 was 145 billion US dollars, a record high for that month [32] - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value. The market expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [33] - The St. Louis Fed President said there was little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term [33] - The US PPI and core PPI in November 2024 increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than expected [34] - China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in response to Trump's tariff threat and the G7's decision to reduce rare earth imports from China [34] - In 2025, China's second - hand car market transaction volume exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time, with new energy second - hand car transactions accounting for 7.9% [34] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million vehicles, reaching a new high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of domestic new car sales. It is expected that in 2026, China's total automobile sales will reach 34.75 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 15.2% [34] - The 2026 work meeting of the inter - ministerial joint conference on the development of energy - saving and new energy vehicle industries emphasized enhancing the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and promoting the large - scale application of new energy heavy trucks [35] - China's automobile export enterprise structure was significantly optimized in 2025, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future, but it also faces challenges [35] - In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For the whole year of 2025, production and sales reached a new high, and new energy vehicles became the dominant force in the market. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports doubling [36] - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total sales volume in 2025 reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [37] Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased slightly compared to the previous month, while that in Indonesia decreased slightly, and that in Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China increased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [41] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [44] - As of November 30, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [47] - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.44%, up 7.55% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.93%, up 4.91% from last week [56] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% [60] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [63] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 102,701 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.31% [68] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [71] - As of November 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [76] - In December 2025, Japan's automobile sales were 335,459, Germany's passenger - car sales were 246,400, and Germany's commercial - vehicle sales were 28,706. In November 2025, South Korea's domestic automobile sales were 116,906, the US sedan sales were 201,624, the US light - truck sales were 1,071,766, and the US light - vehicle sales were 1,273,390 [79] Inventory - side Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,390 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week [86] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 835,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [86] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62%. The bonded - area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general - trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [86] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic production areas have fully stopped tapping, which supports rubber prices. Main producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam are gradually entering the low - production period, but southern Thailand is still in the peak - production period in the short term. The impact of recent weather has weakened, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [87] - Demand: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises recovered, and the operating rates of tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and the market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions. In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in 2025 increased year - on - year. The heavy - truck sales in December were better than expected. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken. China's tire exports increased in November 2025, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive [88] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with the inventory - accumulation speed slightly decreasing [88] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline last week. In the future, macro - economically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was significantly lower than expected last week, and the Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in January, leading to a cooling of macro - sentiment. Commodities showed differentiation, and the chemical - product index first rose and then fell. Domestically, macro - easing policies continue to be introduced, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive. Fundamentally, the supply side still has some pressure, the terminal consumption performs well, and the inventory - accumulation speed of social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao has slightly decreased. Overall, the natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Key factors to watch include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather and raw - material output in rubber - producing areas, inventory - accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal - demand changes [89][90] Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will remain range - bound in the short term. - Operation strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The short - term market is expected to remain range - bound. The report suggests temporarily observing the market, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips [8][92][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2605 ranged between 15,680 - 16,390 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating and upward - trending pattern with a significant overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of January 9, 2026, the main contract closed at 16,030 yuan/ton, up 425 points or 2.72% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [20]. - As of January 9, 2026, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai's Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to the previous week. As of January 9, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [28]. - As of January 9, 2026, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [31]. Important Market Information - Geopolitical events include the US "blitz" on Venezuela and related international responses. The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation was completely dashed. The US economic data showed mixed results, with some indicators improving and others weakening. China's economic data, such as CPI and PPI, showed certain trends, and the auto market had various sales data and promotional activities [32][35][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's and India's increased slightly, Vietnam's and China's increased slightly. The total production in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [42]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the cumulative production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [45][48]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [53]. Demand - side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week [57]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.1%; the monthly sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2% [61][64]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 113,246 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 65.38% and a month - on - month increase of 6.64% [70]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [73][78]. Inventory - side Situation - As of January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from the previous week. - As of January 4, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 815,000 tons, an increase of 3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 417,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. - As of January 4, 2026, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade natural rubber in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8% [88]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: China's natural rubber domestic production area ended its 2025 tapping season, while Southeast Asian main production areas were in the peak tapping season. Due to recent low temperatures in northeastern Thailand and heavy rainfall in southern Thailand, overseas raw material prices remained high. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly. Currently in the seasonal consumption off - season, enterprises' overall shipment pace was slow, and finished - product inventories increased. In the terminal auto market, although December 2025 passenger car sales decreased year - on - year, the cumulative sales for the year increased slightly. The export volume of Chinese rubber tires from January to November 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [89]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with an accelerating inventory - building speed [90]. 后市展望 - The macro - situation has limited impact on natural rubber prices due to the US - Venezuela conflict. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and other factors affect the macro - sentiment. From the fundamental perspective, the supply side has high - priced overseas raw materials due to weather, the demand side is in a seasonal off - season with some short - term fluctuations in enterprise operating rates, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the natural rubber market is in a state of multi - empty game, and the short - term market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Key factors to be followed include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather in rubber - producing areas, inventory - building, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal demand changes [91][92]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - sided trading, temporarily observe, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, temporarily observe [93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily Market Trend - The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fluctuating upward trend. The opening price was 15,800 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 16,130 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,790 yuan/ton, and it closed at 16,050 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 328,277 lots, and the open interest increased by 17,689 lots to 199,609 lots [1] 2. Spot Market Situation - The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,650 yuan/ton [1] 3. Main Influencing Factors Analysis - Supply side: The domestic Yunnan production area has entered the suspension period, and the raw material supply in Hainan and Vietnam is limited, which supports the rubber price. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 333,260.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level [1] - Macro aspect: On January 5, the US dollar index was 98.3291, which decreased compared with the previous period, alleviating the cost pressure of imported rubber priced in US dollars to a certain extent [1] 4. Short - Term Outlook and Factors to Watch - Supply side: In late January, the main production areas such as northeastern Thailand and Vietnam will gradually enter the production - reduction period, and the winter storage demand of processing plants in the production areas may support the upstream raw material prices [2] - Demand side: Although the capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises is currently differentiated, and some enterprises arrange short - term maintenance due to inventory and order pressure, the "Implementation Rules for the Subsidies for Replacing Old Cars with New Ones in 2026" has been implemented since January 1st, which is expected to support the automobile market and drive the recovery of tire demand [2] - Inventory: It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the changes in the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone and domestic social inventory. If the inventory growth slows down or there are signs of destocking, it may further boost market confidence [2][3] - Other factors: It is also necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in Southeast Asian production areas, the fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the impact of macro - economic policies on the market [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to follow the overall commodity market sentiment, with prices likely to experience a rapid upward movement followed by high - level consolidation in the short term. As domestic production areas enter the off - season, overseas high - yield periods continue, and port inventories may continue to accumulate, providing short - term support to the market. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation level and downstream holiday arrangements [107]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and exports to China totaled 2.518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%. In November 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, and consumption was expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons. In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 887,491 units [5][6][7]. Price Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber prices increased significantly, with Singapore TSR20 rubber having the largest increase. On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,780 yuan/ton, 12,820 yuan/ton, 180.50 cents/kg, and 339.50 yen/kg respectively, with month - on - month increases of 3.88%, 3.47%, 3.91%, and 2.35% [10][12]. Basis and Calendar Spread - On December 26, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU05 was - 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 41.18% and a year - on - year increase of 40.37%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50.00% and a year - on - year increase of 117.65% [13]. Other Spreads - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased, while the spread of NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The spreads of non - standard basis and light - dark color also changed. The price of substitute synthetic rubber increased due to factors such as cost support and macro expectations [19][24][27]. Fundamental Data Supply - Weather: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching its end, and the rainfall is decreasing; the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, and the temperature is relatively low. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [43][45]. - Raw Material Prices: As the Hainan production area gradually stops tapping, the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber has significantly cooled. The high - yield period of overseas rubber tapping exerts pressure on supply, and Thai raw material prices are weak [47]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has narrowed. The spread between the price of Hainan rubber latex entering the concentrated latex factory and that entering the whole - milk factory has also narrowed, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping [51]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally recovered [54]. - Delivery Profits: The delivery profit in Hainan has recovered, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so data updates have been suspended [57]. - Exports: In November, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports. In October, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and exports to China rebounded seasonally. In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China decreased significantly [64][70][76]. - Imports: In November, China imported 643,600 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber), a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [82]. Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: During the period, the capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises fluctuated. The inventory of tires continued to accumulate [85]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In November, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. Passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. Tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [88]. - Road Transport Turnover: In November, the freight turnover on roads rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [92]. Inventory - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally, with a larger increase in dark - colored rubber inventory than in light - colored rubber inventory [98]. - Futures Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 93,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.77% [104]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The Hainan production area is gradually stopping tapping, and overseas high - yield periods continue to put pressure on supply. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [107]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises fluctuated, with semi - steel tires having a slight increase and all - steel tires being dragged down by maintenance [107]. - View: The natural rubber market is expected to experience high - level consolidation after a rapid upward movement. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and downstream holiday arrangements [107]. - Valuation: The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR narrowed, while the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU widened [107]. - Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see or short - on - rallies approach for RU; gradually increase long - cash - short - futures positions and pay attention to capital inflows in the market; observe cross - variety spreads [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to follow the overall commodity market sentiment in the short - term, with prices likely to experience a rapid rise followed by high - level consolidation. As the domestic production areas enter the off - season at the end of the month and the overseas high - yield period continues, upstream factories are stocking up moderately, leading to a slight decline in raw material prices. The continuous accumulation of port inventory may provide short - term support to the natural rubber market. Attention should be paid to the extent of inventory accumulation and downstream holiday arrangements [103]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, with 2.518 million tons exported to China, a year - on - year increase of 24% [5]. - In November 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, and consumption to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons. For the whole year of 2025, global production was expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 887,491 units, and the cumulative sales in the first 11 months increased by 1.4% year - on - year to 9.86 million units [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber prices rose significantly, with Singapore TSR20 rubber having the largest increase. On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 increased by 3.88%, 3.47%, 3.91%, and 2.35% respectively compared to the previous period [10][12]. - The basis and spreads showed different trends. For example, the RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads increased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 spread decreased [19]. - The prices of substitute products, such as domestic butadiene rubber, increased this week. The factors driving the increase in supply and market prices mainly included the expectation of reduced production profits for butadiene rubber due to the destocking of butadiene in January of the next year, the strengthening of cost - side support, and the expectation of macro - level benefits such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January of the next year [33]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching its end with decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed with relatively low temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [41][43]. - Raw material prices: As Hainan's production area gradually stops tapping, the enthusiasm of factories for purchasing rubber has significantly decreased. Affected by the high - yield period of overseas rubber tapping, Thai raw material prices are weak [45]. - Export situation: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with only latex showing a slight month - on - month increase. In October 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a sharp decrease in the export volume of standard rubber. In October 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a relatively large increase in latex exports. In November 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the export volume to China decreased significantly month - on - month [62][68][74][76]. - Import situation: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: During the period, the capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The inventory of tires continued to accumulate. In November 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. The sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. The export of tires recovered slightly month - on - month [83][86]. - Road transportation: In November 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [90]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber in China continued to accumulate seasonally, with the accumulation of dark - colored rubber being greater than that of light - colored rubber. The inventory accumulation continued to put pressure on prices, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the later period [96].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Shanghai rubber futures market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to continue its range - bound consolidation in the short term [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Points Supply - Side Situation - As of mid - December 2025, China's major natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the suspension season. In Yunnan, low temperatures are the main reason for the suspension, and raw material output is extremely scarce. In Hainan, the suspension process is slightly later and is now in the final stage [2]. - In 2025, from January to October, China's natural rubber production reached 72.28 million tons, a 7.88% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The domestic market has entered the inventory consumption stage, and future focus will shift to Southeast Asian producers [3]. Demand - Side Situation - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.1% and 3.2%, and year - on - year increases of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, production and sales reached 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles, with year - on - year increases of 11.9% and 11.4% [3][4]. - The heavy - truck market in 2025 recovered strongly. In November, sales were about 100,000 vehicles, a 46% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to November, cumulative sales reached 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [4]. - In 2025, the domestic tire market showed the characteristics of "stable total growth, structural optimization, and internal - external coordination". In November, the output of rubber tire casings was 101.828 million, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to November, the cumulative output was 1.103115 billion, a 0.6% year - on - year increase [4]. Inventory Situation - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao reached 515,200 tons, a weekly increase of 16,300 tons (3.28%). The inventory has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, reflecting the off - season demand characteristics [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side of oils and fats remains loose, and the prices are under pressure and fluctuating. The recent improvement of precipitation in Brazil, the good sowing progress in the producing areas, and the shortening of the La Nina impact window have led to good soybean supply expectations, which put pressure on the overall oils and fats market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming MPOB monthly report and USDA monthly report [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,706.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.73% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.00 yuan or 0.44%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,502.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.00 yuan or 1.21% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.57%, and the spot basis was P05 + -36.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.00 yuan/ton or 0.47%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 170.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan or 1.22%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 248.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information Agricultural Product Production and Supply - As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 94% of the expected area. The total corn production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 135.3 million tons, compared with 141.1 million tons in the previous season [2] - The natural rubber market in Malaysia is expected to be mixed this week due to supply concerns caused by heavy rainfall. The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.89 million tons, while the demand is expected to grow by 0.8% to 15.57 million tons [2] Oilseed Processing and Import - In November, the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China was 9.01 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month, 830,000 tons year - on - year, and 1.2 million tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years. In December, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China may decline slightly, but the current operating rate of oil mills remains high, and the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in the whole month is expected to be about 8.6 million tons, an increase of about 400,000 tons year - on - year and about 300,000 tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years [2] Import Price Changes - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) increased by 12 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) increased by 10 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) decreased by 15 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (January shipment) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (March shipment) decreased by 4 US dollars/ton [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) decreased by 5 US dollars/ton, the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (January shipment) decreased by 9 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes also changed, with the Mexican Gulf (January shipment) increasing by 2 cents/bushel, the US West Coast (January shipment) decreasing by 10 cents/bushel, and the Brazilian port (January shipment) increasing by 30 cents/bushel [2]