1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market were linked with the macro - market, and rubber prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The offer price of imported rubber first declined and then rose, with general trading atmosphere and real - order transactions following the upward trend. The spot price of domestic natural rubber fluctuated widely, and the demand side showed no obvious improvement. [7] - Currently, the weather in the Xishuangbanna production area in Yunnan, China is good, with some areas being slightly dry. The output of fresh latex is gradually increasing, and some concentrated latex factories are competing to purchase at higher prices. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has been accumulating, with both bonded and general trade warehouses increasing. The total inbound volume at the port has increased significantly compared to the previous period. Although downstream tire factories replenish inventory at low prices, the inbound growth rate exceeds the outbound rate, and the port inventory has returned to the accumulation rhythm. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term. [7] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. As it is the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. [7] - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamentals of the natural rubber market were linked with the macro - market, and rubber prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The offer price of imported rubber first declined and then rose, with general trading atmosphere and real - order transactions following the upward trend. The spot price of domestic natural rubber fluctuated widely, and the demand side showed no obvious improvement. [7] - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna production area is good, with some areas being slightly dry. The output of fresh latex is gradually increasing, and some concentrated latex factories are competing to purchase at higher prices. The total inventory at Qingdao Port is accumulating, and it is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly, and some enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements. [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term. [7] 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose oscillatingly, with a weekly increase of 3.19%; the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose oscillatingly, with a weekly increase of 6.76%. [12] - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 27, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 45, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - rubber was - 65. [21] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 125,410 tons, a decrease of 30 tons compared to last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 43,949 tons, a decrease of 4,133 tons compared to last week. [27] 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of March 26, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to last week. [33] - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of March 26, the basis of 20 - rubber was 241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 349 yuan/ton compared to last week; the non - standard basis was - 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to last week. [38] 3.4. Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: As of March 27, the field latex price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 77.5 (+3) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 58.75 (+2.2) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton compared to last week. As of March 26, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, and the output of fresh latex in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna production area is gradually increasing, with some concentrated latex factories competing to purchase at higher prices. [41][44] - **Import Quantity**: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's import volume of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2026 was 1.1065 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36%. [48] - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouse of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points. [52] - **Downstream**: As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. In February 2026, China's tire export volume was 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. The cumulative tire export volume from January to February was 1.3369 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57%. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared to January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. The cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry from January to February was more than 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. It is expected that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry in March will achieve a slight year - on - year increase. [55][58][61] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - No relevant information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was pressured by the expectation of domestic tapping, causing the rubber price center to decline. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the spot price was weak. The spot price center of domestic natural rubber also moved down, with the futures market experiencing wide - range fluctuations and the spot offer prices slightly decreasing. The market sentiment was weak, with limited actual buying [7]. - The tapping in Yunnan's domestic rubber - producing area is progressing steadily, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level, replenishing raw materials at low prices. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term [7]. - This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly fulfilling foreign trade orders, and the domestic sales supply is tight, so the capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and the concentrated shipment driven by price - increase news has supported the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,950 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,750 - 13,300 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The domestic natural rubber market was pressured by the expectation of domestic tapping, with the rubber price center moving down. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the spot price was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price center also declined, with the futures market fluctuating widely and the spot offer prices slightly decreasing. The market sentiment was weak, with limited actual buying [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The tapping in Yunnan's domestic rubber - producing area is progressing steadily, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level, replenishing raw materials at low prices. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected to remain high at the end of the quarter, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,950 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,750 - 13,300 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down with a weekly decline of 4.56%, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber closed down with a weekly decline of 3.42% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not provided with significant analysis content in the text. - **Inter - term Spread**: As of March 20, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 50, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - number rubber was - 90 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 20, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 125,440 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 48,082 tons, a decrease of 1,209 tons from last week [24]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of March 19, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from last week. As of March 19, the basis of 20 - number rubber was 602 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 940 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton from last week [31][36]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of March 20, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 74.5 (+3.5) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 56.5 (-1.5) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Price**: Currently, large - scale tapping in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, has not started. The previous hail and rain weather had limited impact, and the rubber trees are growing well. Tapping is expected to start around the 20th - 22nd [42]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary - form rubber, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) import volume was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2026 was 1,106,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.22 percentage points. Currently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continue to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses reduce inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory [49]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly fulfilling foreign trade orders, and the domestic sales supply is tight, so the capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and the concentrated shipment driven by price - increase news has supported the overall capacity utilization rate [52]. - **Tire Export Volume**: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's tire export volume was 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. The cumulative tire export volume from January to February was 1,336,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82% and a year - on - year increase of 17.79%. The cumulative export volume of passenger car tires from January to February was 543,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 344,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52% and a year - on - year increase of 23.97%. The cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires from January to February was 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07% [55]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. First Commercial Vehicle Network preliminarily predicts that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry is expected to achieve a slight year - on - year increase in March [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was affected by multiple factors, and rubber prices fluctuated. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while the futures market continued to fluctuate. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the market fluctuations, with low trading volume [8]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the seasonal supply off - season, and raw material prices are firm. Qingdao Port's bonded warehouses continued to accumulate inventory, while general trade warehouses reduced inventory, resulting in a slight increase in total inventory. Overseas is in the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar standard rubber is decreasing. The situation in the Middle East is tense, synthetic rubber prices are rising, and tire enterprises are resuming production after the holiday, increasing the buying volume of natural rubber, and the出库 volume of Qingdao Port warehouses has increased, with the inventory accumulation rate narrowing significantly compared to the previous period [8]. - This week, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly week - on - week, and the production schedules of tire enterprises have basically returned to normal levels, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in the short term [8]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,650 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market was affected by multiple factors, with rubber prices fluctuating. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and traders changed positions. The futures market continued to fluctuate, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the market. The trading volume was light [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, and raw material prices are firm. Qingdao Port's inventory situation is complex, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses reducing inventory. Overseas supply is decreasing, and the demand from tire enterprises is increasing. The operating rates of tire enterprises have increased, but there are uncertainties in exports [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 16,650 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract between 13,300 - 14,000 [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 0.42% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber fell by 1.84% week - on - week [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided in the text. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of March 13, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 95, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - number rubber was - 145 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 13, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 120,840 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 49,291 tons, a decrease of 1,108 tons from last week [25]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of March 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Number Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of March 12, the basis of 20 - number rubber was 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: As of March 13, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 71 (+2) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 58 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the closed - cutting period [39][42]. - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [48]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18% [51]. - **Downstream - Tire Operating Rates**: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [54]. - **Downstream - Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire export volume was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [57]. - **Downstream - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared to January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared to 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. It is expected that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry in March will achieve a slight year - on - year increase [60].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic and international natural rubber futures first rose and then fell, showing an overall downward trend. However, in the short - term, the market is expected to be mainly oscillating and slightly stronger. The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited due to the approaching tapping season in domestic production areas and the weakening cost support. But the rising synthetic rubber prices driven by overseas geopolitical risks may boost natural rubber prices, and there may be a situation of natural rubber price compensation increase [104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) predicts that the total tire shipments in the United States in 2026 will increase by 0.7% to 338.9 million units [5]. - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that the global natural rubber production in 2026 will increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, and the consumption will increase by 1.4% to 15.602 million tons. In January 2026, the natural rubber market price rose significantly [6]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck sales decreased by about 8% to 75,000 units. From January to February, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [7]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 22% year - on - year, with natural rubber exports down 29% and mixed rubber exports up 160% [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, domestic and international natural rubber futures first rose and then fell, with overall declines. For example, on March 6, 2026, the closing price of RU2605.SHF was 16,835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% [9][11]. - The basis and monthly spread of natural rubber futures changed, with the full - latex - RU05 basis being - 135 yuan/ton on March 6, 2026, a month - on - month increase of 34.15% and a year - on - year increase of 76.11% [15]. - Other spreads also changed. For instance, RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 spread increased [19]. - The prices of substitute products, such as butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber, rose due to the Middle East military conflict, which increased the production cost and affected the natural rubber market [30]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - The main producing areas in Southeast Asia are basically in the dry season with less rainfall, and the temperatures are generally normal, with Hainan's temperature slightly higher [38][42]. - The global main producing areas are at the end of the tapping season, with a significant contraction in overall supply. Cup - lump prices decreased due to negative feedback from Middle East tire demand, while latex prices remained relatively strong during the low - production season [44]. - Thailand's processing profits generally decreased. For example, on March 6, 2026, Thailand's standard rubber production profit was - 534 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.14% [51][53]. - In January 2026, Thailand's rubber exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the exports of smoked sheets were still relatively high compared with the same period in previous years [60]. - In February 2026, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and the exports to China also increased significantly [66]. - In January 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month but reached a high level in the same period of history, with a significant decline in latex exports. The exports to China also decreased month - on - month [70]. - In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's total rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased even more [74]. - In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 8.034 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.40% [78]. 3.3.2 Demand - After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed production, with most enterprises returning to normal levels during the week, which boosted the overall sample enterprise capacity utilization rate. All - steel tires continued to reduce inventory, and semi - steel tires also started to reduce inventory [81]. - In December 2025, the exports of all - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month, while the exports of semi - steel tires continued to recover. In January 2026, heavy - truck sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while passenger - car sales decreased [84]. - In December 2025, the road freight turnover and passenger turnover both decreased month - on - month [88]. 3.3.3 Inventory - China's natural rubber social inventory continued to accumulate, with the accumulation rate narrowing compared with the previous period. The accumulation was still dominated by dark - colored rubber. Overseas supplies arriving at ports decreased, and the rising rubber prices suppressed downstream purchasing demand [95]. - The natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 117,500 tons on March 6, 2026, a week - on - week increase of 2.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.42% [98]. 3.4 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Thailand is gradually reducing production, with a seasonal contraction in raw material output and strong raw material prices. Some domestic and foreign production areas are in the non - tapping season, and the tapping time in domestic production areas is expected to be in line with seasonal expectations [103]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is running steadily and slightly strongly. Due to high raw material prices and shrinking profits, enterprises have a stronger willingness to increase prices, with some planning price increases of 3 - 5% [103]. - Viewpoint: The approaching tapping season in domestic production areas and the weakening cost support limit the upward driving force of rubber prices. However, the rising synthetic rubber prices may boost natural rubber prices, and the market is expected to be mainly oscillating and slightly stronger [104]. - Valuation: As of Friday, the spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,265 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the spread between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1,115 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton [105]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, try to go long at low prices and be cautious when chasing at high prices; for inter - period trading, stay on the sidelines; for cross - variety trading, stay on the sidelines [106].

Core Viewpoint - China will implement zero tariff measures for 53 African countries starting May 1, 2026, which includes major rubber-producing countries, potentially impacting the global natural rubber market and supply dynamics [3][10]. Group 1: Global Natural Rubber Supply Dynamics - The growth in global natural rubber production is increasingly driven by African countries, which have attracted more investment due to rising global demand, leading to significant increases in processing capacity [3][10]. - By 2025, Africa's rubber processing capacity is expected to approach 3 million tons, with Côte d'Ivoire projected to produce 1.805 million tons, a 7.05% increase from 2024, accounting for 12% of global production [3][10]. Group 2: Price Dynamics and Market Impact - The price difference between Thai rubber and African rubber has shown significant fluctuations, with an average premium of $95 per ton in 2025, narrowing to $82 per ton in Q2 due to market conditions [5][12]. - The price gap is expected to stabilize around $70 per ton in early 2026 as new rubber enters the market and domestic port inventories increase [5][12]. Group 3: Downstream Applications and Market Expansion - African rubber, particularly the 10 grade, is primarily exported to international markets, especially Europe and the U.S., but its application in domestic tire manufacturing is expanding due to competitive pricing [7][14]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is considering expanding the inclusion of African rubber in its trading standards, which could further increase imports of African rubber into the Chinese market [7][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market prices were volatile at high levels. Imported rubber prices rose, while domestic spot prices also increased. However, demand showed no significant improvement, and actual orders were average [10]. - Currently, domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas production is transitioning from peak to the reduction period, resulting in a decrease in overall supply. Qingdao port inventories are accumulating, and this trend is expected to continue during the Spring Festival as downstream enterprises complete their stocking and gradually enter the holiday period [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined significantly this week, and it will reach an annual low during the Spring Festival holiday next week [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to overseas macro - situations, geopolitical issues, and overseas production area conditions during the long holiday [9]. - Market review: Imported rubber market prices rose, and domestic spot prices increased due to external macro - sentiment and higher futures prices. However, demand remained weak [10]. - Market outlook: Supply is decreasing, port inventories are accumulating, and tire enterprise capacity utilization will be low during the Spring Festival [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - Price trends: The main contract price of Shanghai Rubber futures rose 1.46% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose 1% week - on - week [13]. - Position analysis: Not detailed in the summary part, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai Rubber and 20 - rubber [16][18]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13, the spread between Shanghai Rubber's May and September contracts was 120, and the spread between 20 - rubber's March and April contracts was - 60 [25]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12, Shanghai Rubber warehouse receipts were 112,570 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,803 tons, a decrease of 201 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic natural rubber: As of February 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - 20 - rubber basis and non - standard basis: As of February 12, the 20 - rubber basis was 365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 13, the price of field latex in Thailand was 62.3 (+3) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - Domestic: Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the off - season [45]. - **Import Volume** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [51]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78% [54]. - **Downstream** - Tire capacity utilization: As of February 12, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [57]. - Tire export: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [60]. - Domestic demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with macro - sentiment, leading to an oscillating upward trend in rubber prices. The offer price of imported rubber rose, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, with weaker purchasing sentiment compared to last week. The spot price of domestic natural rubber increased, and the futures market's upward trend improved market trading sentiment, with downstream inquiry activity slightly better and cautious procurement based on rigid demand, but actual orders were average [7]. - Currently, the main domestic natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, and the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and then a halt, resulting in a decrease in total supply. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao ports has slightly decreased, with bonded warehouses showing a reduction and the inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses significantly narrowing. Overseas supply has entered a seasonal reduction phase, with fewer ship arrivals compared to the previous period. The inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses has started to decline. The continuous decline in rubber prices in the first ten days of the month stimulated downstream replenishment enthusiasm, increasing the overall outbound volume and narrowing the month - on - month inventory accumulation in general trade [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated this week. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises, supported by foreign trade orders, slightly increased their production schedules, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still controlled production, slightly dragging down the capacity utilization rate. Recently, the prices of various raw materials have remained high. Under cost pressure, some sample enterprises have arranged the "Spring Festival" holiday from the end of January to early February, and the production schedules are gradually coming to an end, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline [7]. - It is recommended that the ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 17,000 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,600 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market's fundamentals and macro - sentiment combined to push rubber prices up in an oscillating manner. Imported rubber offers rose, but factory purchasing was weak. Domestic spot prices increased, and downstream inquiry improved slightly with cautious procurement [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is decreasing as domestic main producing areas are in the off - season and overseas supply is seasonally reducing. Qingdao port inventory is showing a slight decline. Demand - side capacity utilization of tire enterprises is likely to decline in the short term due to cost pressure and holiday arrangements [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 16,000 - 17,000, and the nr2604 contract between 13,000 - 13,600 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose 0.28% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - gauge rubber rose 1.18% week - on - week [10]. - As of January 30, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 135, and the spread between the March and April contracts of 20 - gauge rubber was - 30 [20]. - As of January 29, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 110,970 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts were 53,827 tons, a decrease of 1,512 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - As of January 29, the price of state - owned full - latex was 16,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - As of January 29, the basis of 20 - gauge rubber was 418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 486 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - As of January 29, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 58.3 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 53.5 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of January 30, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - The Yunnan and Hainan producing areas in China are in the off - season [42]. - **Import and Inventory** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [48]. - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse samples decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [52]. - **Downstream** - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points [55]. - In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [58]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [61]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][90][91] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures ranged from 15,780 to 16,480 yuan/ton, showing a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline. As of the close on January 16, 2026, it closed at 15,835 yuan/ton, down 195 points or 1.22% for the week [14] Spot Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to last week. As of January 16, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 135 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton compared to last week [26] - As of January 16, the domestic price of natural rubber decreased slightly compared to last week, while the foreign price increased slightly [30] Important Market Information - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters. There were different responses from various parties, and Trump said he would announce the next Fed chairman in the coming weeks [31] - Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, and Iran said it was ready for all possibilities [31] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000, and the four - week moving average reached a two - year low [32] - The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, and gave different growth forecasts for the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [32] - Trump expressed his hope for the Fed to cut interest rates, and mentioned plans for people's livelihood burden reduction, government shutdown, and housing policy [32] - The US budget deficit in December 2025 was 145 billion US dollars, a record high for that month [32] - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value. The market expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [33] - The St. Louis Fed President said there was little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term [33] - The US PPI and core PPI in November 2024 increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than expected [34] - China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in response to Trump's tariff threat and the G7's decision to reduce rare earth imports from China [34] - In 2025, China's second - hand car market transaction volume exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time, with new energy second - hand car transactions accounting for 7.9% [34] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million vehicles, reaching a new high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of domestic new car sales. It is expected that in 2026, China's total automobile sales will reach 34.75 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 15.2% [34] - The 2026 work meeting of the inter - ministerial joint conference on the development of energy - saving and new energy vehicle industries emphasized enhancing the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and promoting the large - scale application of new energy heavy trucks [35] - China's automobile export enterprise structure was significantly optimized in 2025, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future, but it also faces challenges [35] - In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For the whole year of 2025, production and sales reached a new high, and new energy vehicles became the dominant force in the market. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports doubling [36] - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total sales volume in 2025 reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [37] Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased slightly compared to the previous month, while that in Indonesia decreased slightly, and that in Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China increased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [41] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [44] - As of November 30, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [47] - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.44%, up 7.55% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.93%, up 4.91% from last week [56] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% [60] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [63] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 102,701 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.31% [68] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [71] - As of November 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [76] - In December 2025, Japan's automobile sales were 335,459, Germany's passenger - car sales were 246,400, and Germany's commercial - vehicle sales were 28,706. In November 2025, South Korea's domestic automobile sales were 116,906, the US sedan sales were 201,624, the US light - truck sales were 1,071,766, and the US light - vehicle sales were 1,273,390 [79] Inventory - side Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,390 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week [86] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 835,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [86] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62%. The bonded - area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general - trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [86] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic production areas have fully stopped tapping, which supports rubber prices. Main producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam are gradually entering the low - production period, but southern Thailand is still in the peak - production period in the short term. The impact of recent weather has weakened, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [87] - Demand: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises recovered, and the operating rates of tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and the market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions. In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in 2025 increased year - on - year. The heavy - truck sales in December were better than expected. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken. China's tire exports increased in November 2025, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive [88] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with the inventory - accumulation speed slightly decreasing [88] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline last week. In the future, macro - economically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was significantly lower than expected last week, and the Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in January, leading to a cooling of macro - sentiment. Commodities showed differentiation, and the chemical - product index first rose and then fell. Domestically, macro - easing policies continue to be introduced, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive. Fundamentally, the supply side still has some pressure, the terminal consumption performs well, and the inventory - accumulation speed of social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao has slightly decreased. Overall, the natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Key factors to watch include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather and raw - material output in rubber - producing areas, inventory - accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal - demand changes [89][90] Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will remain range - bound in the short term. - Operation strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The short - term market is expected to remain range - bound. The report suggests temporarily observing the market, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips [8][92][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2605 ranged between 15,680 - 16,390 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating and upward - trending pattern with a significant overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of January 9, 2026, the main contract closed at 16,030 yuan/ton, up 425 points or 2.72% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [20]. - As of January 9, 2026, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai's Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to the previous week. As of January 9, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [28]. - As of January 9, 2026, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [31]. Important Market Information - Geopolitical events include the US "blitz" on Venezuela and related international responses. The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation was completely dashed. The US economic data showed mixed results, with some indicators improving and others weakening. China's economic data, such as CPI and PPI, showed certain trends, and the auto market had various sales data and promotional activities [32][35][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's and India's increased slightly, Vietnam's and China's increased slightly. The total production in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [42]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the cumulative production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [45][48]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [53]. Demand - side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week [57]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.1%; the monthly sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2% [61][64]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 113,246 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 65.38% and a month - on - month increase of 6.64% [70]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [73][78]. Inventory - side Situation - As of January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from the previous week. - As of January 4, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 815,000 tons, an increase of 3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 417,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. - As of January 4, 2026, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade natural rubber in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8% [88]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: China's natural rubber domestic production area ended its 2025 tapping season, while Southeast Asian main production areas were in the peak tapping season. Due to recent low temperatures in northeastern Thailand and heavy rainfall in southern Thailand, overseas raw material prices remained high. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly. Currently in the seasonal consumption off - season, enterprises' overall shipment pace was slow, and finished - product inventories increased. In the terminal auto market, although December 2025 passenger car sales decreased year - on - year, the cumulative sales for the year increased slightly. The export volume of Chinese rubber tires from January to November 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [89]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with an accelerating inventory - building speed [90]. 后市展望 - The macro - situation has limited impact on natural rubber prices due to the US - Venezuela conflict. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and other factors affect the macro - sentiment. From the fundamental perspective, the supply side has high - priced overseas raw materials due to weather, the demand side is in a seasonal off - season with some short - term fluctuations in enterprise operating rates, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the natural rubber market is in a state of multi - empty game, and the short - term market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Key factors to be followed include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather in rubber - producing areas, inventory - building, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal demand changes [91][92]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - sided trading, temporarily observe, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, temporarily observe [93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily Market Trend - The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fluctuating upward trend. The opening price was 15,800 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 16,130 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,790 yuan/ton, and it closed at 16,050 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 328,277 lots, and the open interest increased by 17,689 lots to 199,609 lots [1] 2. Spot Market Situation - The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,650 yuan/ton [1] 3. Main Influencing Factors Analysis - Supply side: The domestic Yunnan production area has entered the suspension period, and the raw material supply in Hainan and Vietnam is limited, which supports the rubber price. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 333,260.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level [1] - Macro aspect: On January 5, the US dollar index was 98.3291, which decreased compared with the previous period, alleviating the cost pressure of imported rubber priced in US dollars to a certain extent [1] 4. Short - Term Outlook and Factors to Watch - Supply side: In late January, the main production areas such as northeastern Thailand and Vietnam will gradually enter the production - reduction period, and the winter storage demand of processing plants in the production areas may support the upstream raw material prices [2] - Demand side: Although the capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises is currently differentiated, and some enterprises arrange short - term maintenance due to inventory and order pressure, the "Implementation Rules for the Subsidies for Replacing Old Cars with New Ones in 2026" has been implemented since January 1st, which is expected to support the automobile market and drive the recovery of tire demand [2] - Inventory: It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the changes in the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone and domestic social inventory. If the inventory growth slows down or there are signs of destocking, it may further boost market confidence [2][3] - Other factors: It is also necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in Southeast Asian production areas, the fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the impact of macro - economic policies on the market [3]