Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Aluminum Market - On the 5th, Shanghai Aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The main contract 2509 closed up 0.51% at 20,560. The total index positions increased by 934 to 574,153 lots. The 08 - 09 premium was reported at 40. Aluminum ingot social inventories continued to grow, and spot prices were all at discounts. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following Shanghai Aluminum, with the AD - AL negative spread reported at - 485 [8]. - In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines, the shortage is expected to be limited, and the bauxite price will mainly operate at the bottom [8]. - The stimulus of the anti - involution policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution, and short - selling can be considered at high points [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum will continue to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL will maintain a low - level negative spread structure [8]. - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories are seasonally increasing. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be strong, but the off - season continues, and short - selling can be appropriately considered [8]. Group 3: Industry News Ghana's Bauxite Agreement - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite mines in West Africa. Potential partners include the UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) or a Chinese company. The canceled agreement covered the Nyinahin Hills mine in central Ghana, which contains about 376 million tons of bauxite. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh in the world [9][10]. China's Aluminum Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10]. Guinea's Mining License Revocation - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced that the Ministry of Mines and Geology had revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. The revoked bauxite enterprises all have long - term idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mining rights were taken back by the state free of charge as part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. Restart of Alcoa's Spanish Smelter - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to be restarted by mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million due to the delay. The plant's production decreased in 2021 due to high electricity prices. The restart plan was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint - venture company suspended the resumption of production until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and measures to prevent similar events. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint - venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant had resumed. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026 [10][11]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Core View - On the 4th, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. The main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to close at 20,525. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium was reported at 50. The cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum to oscillate stronger, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -515. In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines suggest limited shortages, with ore prices mainly at the bottom. The stimulus from the anti - involution policy in the surplus industry for related industrial products has temporarily ended, and the alumina surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina and can short - sell at high points. In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry, with weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure. At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains high, the demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories show a seasonal increase. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, macro - sentiment dominates the aluminum market. The fall of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be stronger, but the off - season continues, and one can appropriately short at high points [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to 20,525, with the index's total open interest decreasing by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium at 50. The AD - AL negative spread was -515 [8] - Bauxite supply may tighten in August due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and mine restarts limit shortages, with ore prices at the bottom [8] - Alumina's surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before policy clarity, be cautious about the upside space and consider short - selling at high points [8] - Cast aluminum is in the automotive off - season, with weak supply and demand, following Shanghai aluminum in range - bound fluctuations and maintaining a low negative spread [8] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off - season, inventories are seasonally increasing, and smelting profits have declined but are still high. Macro - sentiment dominates, and one can short at high points [8] 2. Industry News - Ghana cancelled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Potential partners include EGA or a Chinese company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh globally [9] - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10] - On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mining rights with no actual mining activities [10] - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a national power outage in April. The smelter has a capacity of 228,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the supply of bauxite is expected to tighten due to the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine - right suspension, which will support the bottom of the ore price. However, the significant increase in bauxite imports from January to July (+34%), high port inventories, and the resumption of production of suspended mines limit the upside space of imported bauxite prices, and the price will mainly remain in the bottom - range operation [7][57]. - The stimulus of the "anti - involution" policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. If relevant policies do not cover this industry, the alumina price will still be under pressure. The alumina futures price rose rapidly this month, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window and attracting demand for spot delivery products. But the window will close again at the end of the month, weakening the support for the spot. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina. If there is a high point, short - selling can be considered [7][57]. - In the cast - aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap - aluminum supply, cast - aluminum will continue to fluctuate within a range following the Shanghai Aluminum, maintaining a low - level negative spread structure between AD - AL [7][59]. - At the electrolytic - aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, with the real - estate side continuing to drag down and a slight decline in demand in the photovoltaic field. However, there is still support from the new - energy vehicle and cable sectors. Considering that August is the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, if the aluminum price continues to fall and the peak season approaches, there may be a certain increase in demand [7][59]. - Overall, the direct impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the aluminum industry is limited, and it mainly causes fluctuations in the market due to changes in sentiment. After the digestion of policy - expectation sentiment, the aluminum price trend will return to the fundamentals. In August, as the off - season is more than half over and the end of the month will see the transition from the off - season to the peak season, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range in August being 20,000 - 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [7][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the overall operating center moving up compared to the previous month. The main increase was concentrated in the first and middle ten - days. Following the continuous repair of the macro - sentiment, the aluminum price followed the industrial - product sector and continued to run strongly. The index reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, but was significantly suppressed at the 21,000 - yuan integer mark. With the weakening of the macro - optimistic atmosphere and the cooling of market risk - preference sentiment, Shanghai Aluminum began to decline in the second half of July and continued to decline until the end of the month [9]. - Fundamentally, although July is the traditional consumption off - season, the aluminum - ingot inventory performance remained strong, staying below 500,000 tons. The inflection point of inventory accumulation was basically confirmed around the second half of the month, which provided impetus for the rise of the aluminum price. The import window remained closed during the month, and the import loss slightly increased compared to the beginning of the month, with a loss of about - 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Throughout the month, the Shanghai Aluminum index opened at 20,460 yuan/ton, reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, a minimum of 20,230 yuan/ton, and closed at 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the end of the previous month. As of the end of the month, the total open interest of the index was 591,000 lots, a decrease of 68,097 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 319,000 lots to 5.88 million lots compared to the end of the previous month. The London Aluminum opened at 2,595 US dollars/ton, reached a maximum of 2,664.5 US dollars/ton, a minimum of 2,555.5 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,562.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the end of the previous month. The open interest at the end of the month was 684,000 lots, a decrease of 11,404 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 34,039 lots to 377,000 lots compared to the end of the previous month [9]. 3.2 Supply - side of the Fundamentals 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply remained stable in July 2025. There was no significant change in supply, and there was no oversupply. The prices of bauxite in various regions remained flat compared to the previous month. For example, in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou, the prices of bauxite with specific aluminum - silicon ratios and alumina contents remained unchanged [14]. - For imported bauxite, as of the end of the month, the average CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 73.5 US dollars/ton, a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month; the average CIF price of Australian bauxite was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month. In June 2025, China imported 18.116 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 3.44% and a year - on - year increase of 36.21%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. In July, the domestic arrival of Guinea bauxite was still from before the rainy season in Guinea and was less affected by the mine - right revocation event, with a high shipment volume. It is expected that the total amount of bauxite imported from Guinea will decline from August to October [15]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, as of July 31, the weighted average price of alumina in major regions was 3,252.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.8 yuan/ton or 4.42% compared to the end of the previous month. The prices in various domestic regions all increased. The overseas FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, and after conversion, it was about 3,347 yuan/ton at domestic ports, higher than the domestic price, and the alumina import window remained closed [20]. - In terms of production capacity and output, in July 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. As of the end of July, the built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the actual operating capacity increased by 2.00% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 81.6%. In August, the alumina price is still high, and the profitability of alumina plants is good. Only a few enterprises are expected to carry out routine maintenance, and the impact on production is limited. The operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina is expected to continue to increase slightly [21]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic - aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.05% and a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan. As of the end of the month, the built - in production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 45.69 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. In August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and the second - phase replacement project in Yunnan will be put into production and start outputting [28]. - In terms of imports and exports, the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The import window remains closed, and domestic demand is weak. The enthusiasm of overseas suppliers to send goods to China has decreased, and the net import of electrolytic aluminum in July is expected to remain at a low level. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum import volume was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 76,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month, at a low level in the same period in the past three years. The inventory of aluminum rods in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 147,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month. In London, the aluminum - ingot inventory of the London Metal Exchange was 461,025 tons, an increase of 112,400 tons compared to the end of the previous month [40]. 3.3 Demand - side of the Fundamentals 3.3.1 Real - estate Sector - The real - estate industry's aluminum consumption is mainly concentrated in the housing completion stage, including new - house doors and windows, aluminum formwork, and curtain - wall decoration. From January to June, national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume of real - estate all showed varying degrees of decline. In July, the performance of building profiles was still sluggish. Most enterprises reported a significant decrease in building - material orders, and some enterprises are transforming to industrial profiles. It is expected that the situation will remain sluggish in August [47][50][51]. 3.3.2 Automotive Sector - In January 2025, eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the 2025 automobile trade - in program, expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrapping and replacement subsidies. In the first half of 2025, the automobile trade - in policy continued to be effective, and the passenger - car market continued to perform well. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. The domestic sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% [54][55]. 3.4 Market Outlook - As mentioned above, in August, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range from 20,000 to 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [59].