华夏基石e洞察 今天这一讲的主题是"繁荣与危机"。 古希腊哲学家赫拉克利特有句名言："人不能两次踏入同一河流。"因为水在不停流动。世界万物随时在 变，商业活动也是如此：变化带来机会，变化带来创新，变化也蕴含风险。社会和经济组织的进步是一 个量变到质变的过程，演化和革命相继呈现的过程。经济组织过去的成功会形成传统惯例和路径依赖， 既有助于未来的成功，也是变革的最大阻力。 经济组织的发展之所以存在路径依赖，根源是既得利益。所以，变革就是对既得利益格局和权力格局的 重构。 01 惯例与路径依赖 一、惯例是企业的非正式约束 大企业都经历过繁荣和巅峰时期，但也大都陷入过危机。许多企业从此消失。那么，什么导致了企业从 繁荣到陷入危机？其中，为惯例所困就是原因之一。 什么是惯例？ 惯例是企业做事的方式和决定做什么的方式所遵循的常规。惯例存储着企业过去的专门操作知识，是企 业记忆的承载。企业过去成功的经验往往是通过惯例传承的。在这个意义上，可以将惯例看作是企业类 文 / 黄卫伟，华夏基石六君子塾首席导师，华为高级顾问，中国人民大学教授、博导 来源：华夏基石e洞察（ID：chnstonewx） 根据黄卫伟教授在华夏基石六君子塾 ...

Group 1 - Tencent announced that Yao Shunyu, a scientist from OpenAI and a Tsinghua University graduate, has been appointed as the Chief AI Scientist in the CEO's office, reporting directly to Tencent's president Liu Chiping [2][52] - Xiaomi announced that 95后 AI talent Luo Fuli has been appointed as the head of the MiMo large model, reportedly with a salary of tens of millions [5][55] - Both individuals, aged 27 and under 30, are now at the forefront of China's AI landscape, sparking discussions among parents about the implications for their own children [6][56] Group 2 - The average salary for AI talent in Silicon Valley is at least $1 million, while in China it is around 1 million RMB, with top talent earning significantly more [8][63] - The disparity in salaries is stark, with AI talent earning 16.7 times more than the average graduate salary in China, which is around 6,000 RMB per month [24][66] - The trend of young individuals leading in AI is not an anomaly; many tech founders, including those of major companies, were under 30 when they started their ventures [14][60] Group 3 - Young people are able to create disruptive innovations due to their lack of "path dependency," allowing them to explore new ideas without being constrained by past successes [21][68] - The phenomenon of "getting obsessed" with new technologies is seen as a valuable trait, encouraging young individuals to fully engage with their interests [27][72] - The current wave of AI represents a significant technological shift, and those who engage with it early can become experts as the field evolves [32][77] Group 4 - To cultivate innovative talent in the AI era, it is essential to encourage children to pursue their passions and not to hinder their enthusiasm for new technologies [33][78] - Helping children "catch the first wave" of technology involves providing them with resources and opportunities to explore their interests deeply [39][80] - The market values the ability to solve real-world problems over academic credentials, emphasizing the importance of practical skills in the current job landscape [43][83]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that poverty is often a result of one's mindset rather than external circumstances, and that certain thinking patterns can lead to a stable state of poverty [1][18]. Group 2 - Individuals who are resistant to change, referred to as "conservative," often find themselves in economic difficulties due to their inability to adapt to new market conditions [2][3]. - The article cites an example of a hardware store owner who struggles due to a lack of online presence, illustrating the risks of sticking to outdated methods [2]. - The concept of "path dependence" and "fear of risk" are highlighted as key reasons for this conservative mindset, leading to a failure to embrace change [2][3]. Group 3 - The article distinguishes between "calculating" and "planning," noting that those who focus solely on short-term gains often overlook long-term opportunities [5][6]. - An example is provided of a business owner who lost significant future business due to prioritizing immediate profit over quality, demonstrating the pitfalls of a calculating mindset [6][7]. - The notion of "transaction costs" is introduced, emphasizing that hidden costs can accumulate when one focuses too much on short-term savings [6][7]. Group 4 - The article discusses "short-sighted" individuals who prioritize immediate rewards over future potential, leading to missed opportunities [9][10]. - An example of a job seeker choosing a higher immediate salary in a declining industry over a lower salary in a growing sector illustrates this point [9][10]. - The concept of "compound thinking" is introduced, emphasizing the importance of delayed gratification and long-term planning for financial success [12]. Group 5 - The article addresses "resigned" individuals who lack the imagination to envision a better future, attributing their circumstances to external factors rather than their own mindset [14][18]. - It highlights that a negative attitude can be a significant barrier to financial improvement, as those who feel powerless often remain stagnant [14][18]. - The importance of a proactive mindset is emphasized, suggesting that those who actively seek change are more likely to achieve financial success [14][18]. Group 6 - The article concludes with a metaphor about an elephant tied to a small stake, illustrating how limiting beliefs can confine individuals to a state of poverty [16][17]. - It suggests that the key to overcoming poverty lies in changing one's mindset and developing skills to create wealth [18].

Economic Decline - Japan's economy is facing severe challenges, with the yen depreciating by 5.6% against the US dollar since the appointment of Prime Minister Kishida [1][4] - The country is experiencing a structural decline rather than a simple recession, indicating a deep-rooted economic crisis [4][17] Manufacturing Sector - Japan's once-proud manufacturing giants, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors, are losing market share, with Chinese electric vehicle orders surpassing Japanese brands at the 2024 Shanghai Auto Show [6][8] - Japan has transitioned from a trade surplus nation to a persistent trade deficit, highlighting a critical loss of its economic foundation [6][8] GDP and Debt - Japan's GDP has been surpassed by Germany, dropping to fourth globally, with projections indicating that South Korea may soon exceed Japan's per capita GDP [8][19] - The country has the highest government debt ratio globally, and continued borrowing amidst rising interest rates is seen as a gamble that could further weaken its economy [8][19] Societal Impact - The economic decline is reflected in societal issues, such as young Japanese women resorting to selling their dignity abroad to make a living, indicating a dire economic situation [10][12] Policy Failures - Monetary policies, including low interest rates and currency devaluation, are viewed as ineffective measures that fail to address the underlying structural issues [12][17] - The reliance on fiscal and monetary interventions has created a vicious cycle of debt and economic decline, leading to a "death spiral" for the economy [17][19] Comparison with Other Nations - In contrast to Japan, South Korea has successfully adapted to technological changes and industrial shifts, demonstrating the importance of flexibility and innovation [21][23] - Japan's adherence to traditional manufacturing practices has resulted in a "technological prison," limiting its ability to adapt to new market realities [23][25] Geopolitical Context - Japan's economic struggles are compounded by external pressures from the US and China, with the US seeking to maintain Japan's financial support while limiting its autonomy [27][29] - China's strategic efforts to undermine Japan's economic strength are evident, aiming to reshape Japan's political and ideological landscape [29][31] Conclusion - Japan's failure to embrace change and innovation has led to its current predicament, serving as a cautionary tale for other industries and nations [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the technology, robotics, and AI computing sectors are unlikely to see significant market movements in the future. The author plans to gradually invest in Xiaomi stocks, believing that the company's valuation is close to its target price of HKD 43, especially with the upcoming financial report on November 18 as a potential catalyst for investment [1]. Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - Xiaomi operates in mature sectors with low profit margins, relying heavily on marketing strategies while compromising product quality to generate profits. This approach may not be sustainable, especially in the automotive sector where product issues are more visible [3][4]. - The company's marketing-driven model is effective for low-value products, but it may backfire for higher-value items, leading to increased consumer scrutiny and potential backlash, which could negatively impact sales across its product lines [8]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Product Quality - There is a growing dissatisfaction among consumers regarding Xiaomi's product quality, with reports of issues such as malfunctioning televisions and high repair costs, leading to a decline in brand reputation [5][7]. - The article highlights a trend where consumers feel trapped by the high costs of repairs and replacements for Xiaomi products, which diminishes their overall satisfaction and loyalty to the brand [10][11]. Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - The current market perception of Xiaomi is that it is overvalued, especially considering the potential decline in consumer trust and the impact of negative feedback on its sales performance [8][14]. - The article raises concerns about Xiaomi's ability to maintain its market position if its marketing strategies fail, suggesting that the company's reliance on these tactics could lead to rapid deterioration in its business model [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The book "South of the Yangtze: The Submerged Yanzhou Prefecture" explores the historical and cultural significance of Yanzhou, a region that has been overshadowed by its more prosperous neighbors in Jiangnan, highlighting its unique geographical and cultural identity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The concept of Jiangnan has evolved significantly from the Qin and Han dynasties to modern times, with a focus on the Taihu Basin, particularly the seven prefectures including Suzhou and Hangzhou, which were economically dominant during the Ming and Qing dynasties [2][4]. - Yanzhou, located in the southwestern mountainous region of Zhejiang, has historically been overshadowed by Hangzhou and lacks the coastal economic advantages of Jiangnan [3][4]. Cultural and Political Significance - The book discusses the cultural and political relevance of Yanzhou, particularly during the Southern Song Dynasty when it became significant in the political and cultural landscape of the region [4][5]. - The narrative includes the contributions of notable figures from Yanzhou, such as the two empresses from the Yang family, emphasizing the region's importance during turbulent times for the Zhao Song dynasty [5][6]. Geographical and Economic Analysis - The geographical features of Yanzhou, characterized by "seven mountains, two rivers, and one field," have shaped its social, economic, and cultural development over time [4][8]. - The book examines the impact of natural resources and geographical constraints on Yanzhou's economy, particularly the reliance on forest resources and the limited development of other industries [3][9]. Local History and Identity - The author aims to reconstruct the local history of Yanzhou, emphasizing its unique identity that differs from the coastal Jiangnan region, and how it has been shaped by both local and external influences [8][10]. - The narrative also highlights the historical neglect of Yanzhou, both in terms of its physical landscape being submerged and its administrative significance being forgotten over time [11][12].

Group 1 - The article suggests that the recent market rebound is merely a temporary reaction after breaking through a significant moving average, indicating a lack of substantial change in the overall market framework [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the market will experience a narrow range or a deep pullback, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a defensive position to await favorable conditions [3] - From the perspective of a specific trading theory, the current market situation is identified as a critical exit point for traders, highlighting the need to understand momentum changes rather than fixating on specific trading signals [4] Group 2 - There are no signs indicating the end of the current market adjustment; instead, it appears that the adjustment phase has just begun, suggesting a need for patience and strategic accumulation [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and reflection during challenging market conditions, advocating for a proactive approach to market analysis [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of "path dependence" and how reliance on past experiences can hinder innovation and adaptation in business environments [1][3][5] - It highlights the dangers of "success dependence," where companies fail to evolve due to over-reliance on previous successful strategies [3][11] - The need for entrepreneurs to break free from these mental constraints to unlock new growth opportunities is emphasized [11][12] Group 1: Path Dependence - Path dependence can lead to a rigid adherence to familiar strategies, which may become a liability in changing environments [2][5] - Examples of companies like Nokia and Kodak illustrate how over-reliance on past successes can result in missed opportunities and decline [3][10] - The concept of "local optimum" is introduced, where businesses may settle for satisfactory solutions without exploring potentially better alternatives [7][8] Group 2: Cognitive Biases - Cognitive biases, such as the tendency to stick with familiar methods, can limit the ability to adapt to new challenges [6][9] - The article explains how the brain's predictive coding can reinforce existing beliefs and hinder the acceptance of new information [6][9] - Entrepreneurs often attribute success to specific methods without recognizing the importance of context and adaptability [6][9] Group 3: Overfitting in Business - The analogy of "overfitting" from machine learning is used to describe how businesses can become too specialized in their past methods, failing to generalize to new situations [4][11] - This overfitting can lead to a lack of responsiveness when faced with new data or market changes [4][11] Group 4: Strategies for Overcoming Constraints - To break free from path dependence, companies should actively seek new experiences and challenges [12][14] - Developing transferable skills is crucial for adapting to changing environments and avoiding the pitfalls of being locked into a single path [14][15] - Regularly reassessing goals and strategies can help identify when a company is stuck in a local optimum and needs to pivot [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dangers of "path dependence" and "success dependence" in entrepreneurship, emphasizing that reliance on past experiences can hinder innovation and adaptation to new market conditions [4][6][15]. Group 1: Path Dependence - Path dependence can lead to a reliance on outdated strategies, making it difficult for companies to adapt to new technologies and market demands [4][6]. - Examples include Nokia and Kodak, which failed to transition to smartphones and digital photography due to their reliance on past successes [4][6]. - The concept of path dependence is rooted in increasing returns and transfer costs, which discourage companies from changing established practices [6][7]. Group 2: Success Dependence - Success dependence refers to the tendency to attribute past successes solely to specific methods, ignoring the context that made those methods effective [7][8]. - This cognitive bias can lead to a failure to question the relevance of established practices when market conditions change [7][8]. Group 3: Local Optima - The article highlights the issue of "local optima," where individuals or companies settle for satisfactory solutions without exploring potentially better options [10][11]. - This phenomenon can hinder personal growth and innovation, as sticking to familiar paths may prevent the discovery of superior alternatives [11][12]. Group 4: Breaking Free from Constraints - To overcome these limitations, companies should actively seek new experiences and challenge existing habits [16][18]. - Developing transferable skills can help entrepreneurs adapt to changing environments and avoid being trapped by outdated practices [18][19]. - The article advocates for a mindset shift from relying on past experiences to actively shaping future paths through continuous learning and adaptation [19].

Core Insights - A large-scale study covering 38 countries and tracking nearly 320,000 scientists over half a century reveals that the likelihood of achieving significant breakthroughs later in a scientific career is less than 1% [1][3][4] Group 1: Research Overview - The study was conducted by Marek Kwiek from Adam Mickiewicz University and Lukasz Szymula from the University of Colorado Boulder, focusing on how early career performance influences future academic success [2] - The research analyzed 320,564 active scientists who have published for at least 25 years, covering 16 major disciplines across 38 OECD countries, representing nearly 80% of eligible scientists globally [2] Group 2: Findings on Academic Mobility - The study concludes that there is very low mobility in the global scientific productivity hierarchy, with early career performance largely determining long-term academic trajectories [3][4] - Scientists' productivity levels are established early in their careers, with over 80% of those in the top 10% during mid-career having already been in the top three productivity levels early on [4][5] Group 3: Probability of Career Advancement - The probability of a scientist in the lowest productivity tier during early career advancing to the top tier in mid-career is less than 1%, with only 0.51% of mid-career top 10% scientists coming from the lowest tier [5][6] - The likelihood of moving from the lowest to the highest productivity tier increases slightly from 0.51% to 1.36% from mid to late career, but remains very low overall [6] Group 4: Factors Influencing Academic Success - Early success is a critical predictor of future achievements, with a "reputation cycle" where high-quality publications lead to funding and resources, further enhancing productivity [7][8] - Working at top-ranked research institutions can increase a scientist's chances of success by 30% to 50%, particularly in the medical field [8] Group 5: Gender Disparities - Gender remains a significant variable, with male scientists having a higher probability of entering the top productivity ranks compared to female scientists, especially in life sciences [9] Group 6: Discipline-Specific Insights - There are differences in mobility across disciplines, with social sciences showing slightly higher upward mobility compared to STEM fields [10] - In fields like mathematics and physics, top scholars maintain their positions more consistently, indicating a strong correlation between early talent and long-term success [11][12]