锰硅：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 2025 年 9 月 24 日 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1.铁合金在线：9 月 23 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5400-5450，青海 5250-5350，甘肃 5350- 5400，内蒙 5350-5400；75#硅铁：陕西 6150-6200（+150），宁夏 6000-6100（+100），青海 6000- 6100（+100），甘肃 6000-6050（+50），内蒙 6100-6150（+100）（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）； 硅铁 FOB：72#1050-1070，75#1120-1150（+20）（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#北方报价 5650- 5750（-50）元/吨；南方报价 5750-5800（+50）元/吨。（现金出厂含税报价） 2.铁合金在线：中天钢铁常州昨日敲定 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are disturbed by market information, showing wide - range intraday fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon iron 2511 closed at 5624, down 10 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 208,650 and an open interest of 222,047. Silicon iron 2601 closed at 5604, down 2, with a trading volume of 33,111 and an open interest of 96,724 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2511 closed at 5828, up 10, with a trading volume of 66,101 and an open interest of 107,056. Manganese silicon 2601 closed at 5842, up 10, with a trading volume of 138,956 and an open interest of 312,315 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of silicon iron: FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese: FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of manganese ore: Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of blue charcoal: small material in Shenmu was 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The silicon iron spot - 11 futures spread was - 274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - 01 futures spread was - 122 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1]. - The silicon iron 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread was 20 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread was - 14 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The manganese silicon 2511 - silicon iron 2511 cross - variety spread was 204 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 cross - variety spread was 238 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 28, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - Kangmilaou announced the offer of Gabon block to China in October 2025 at 4.27 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month. Some long - term agreement enterprises reported a decrease in the quantity of Gabon block. The stable overseas price is positive for the long - term cost support of manganese ore [2]. - United Mining (CML) announced the offer to China in October 2025. The offer of Australian block (Mn＞46% Fe＜6% SiO2<18%) was 4.57 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month [3]. - On the 27th, Ningbo Iron and Steel set the price of silicon manganese at 6030 yuan/ton (acceptance and tax included, delivered to the factory), with a purchase volume of 1000 tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The manganese - silicon sector shows weak sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2509, 2510, manganese silicon 2509, and 2510 are 5794, 5778, 6074, and 6086 respectively, with changes of - 26, - 34, - 36, and - 38 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 232,143, 72,155, 314,200, and 52,038, and the open interests are 88,820, 59,932, 193,064, and 49,237 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, manganese ore Mn44 block, and semi - coke small materials in Shenmu are 5450 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 40.3 yuan/ton - degree, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The manganese ore price dropped by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The silicon iron spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - **Price Difference Data**: The price differences of silicon iron 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509, and manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 are - 17022 yuan/ton, - 888 yuan/ton, 280 - 10 yuan/ton, and 1984 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Trend Strength Index**: The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 13, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions range from 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 75 from 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron are 1030 - 1050 and 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton respectively. The northern and southern quotes of silicon manganese 6517 are 5850 - 5950 and 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Procurement News**: Hebei Steel finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from July [2].

Report Title - Manganese Silicon: Sector sentiment resonance, strong sideways movement [1] Core View - The manganese silicon market shows a pattern of strong sideways movement due to sector sentiment resonance [1] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon iron 2509 closed at 6110, up 270, with a trading volume of 726,721 and an open interest of 197,081 - Silicon iron 2510 closed at 6092, up 260, with a trading volume of 62,472 and an open interest of 40,316 - Manganese silicon 2509 closed at 6212, up 184, with a trading volume of 1,009,206 and an open interest of 347,380 - Manganese silicon 2510 closed at 6218, up 186, with a trading volume of 43,829 and an open interest of 23,948 [1] Spot Data - The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5550 yuan/ton, up 50 - The price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5800 yuan/ton, up 100 - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 - The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 550 yuan/ton [1] Price Difference Data - The spot - 09 futures price difference of silicon iron was - 560 yuan/ton, down 220 - The spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon was - 412 yuan/ton, down 84 - The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2509 - 2601 was - 106 yuan/ton, up 2 - The near - far month price difference of manganese silicon 2509 - 2601 was - 74 yuan/ton, unchanged - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 was 102 yuan/ton, down 86 - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 70 yuan/ton, down 84 [1] Macro and Industry News Silicon Iron Price News - On July 29, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5600 (+100), in Ningxia 5600 - 5700 (+100), in Qinghai 5500 - 5600 (+100), in Gansu 5500 - 5600 (+100), and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 (+150) - The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950, in Ningxia 5800 - 5900, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850, in Gansu 5800 - 5850, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 - The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040, and 75 was 1090 - 1110 (US dollars/ton, tax - included) [2] Silicon Manganese Price News - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5850 - 5950 (+150) yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5900 - 6000 (+100) yuan/ton [2] Production and Procurement News - In July, there were 11 silicon iron enterprises in production in Inner Mongolia, with 75 ore - heating furnaces in production. The operating rate in July was 61.48%, up 1.64% from June, and the output was expected to be 14.64 tons, up 0.37 tons from June, with a capacity utilization of 60.2% - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicon iron procurement price at 5970 yuan/ton in cash, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 400 tons - A steel mill in Shandong set the silicon manganese standard at 5990 yuan/ton, CIF and accepted, and temporarily procured 1500 tons - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicon manganese standard at 5880 yuan/ton, CIF and cash - included, up 140 yuan/ton, with a procurement volume of 1500 tons - A group in Fujian set the silicon manganese standard at 6150 yuan/ton in Hubei, up 100, with a procurement volume of 3000 tons; and 6150 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, up 100, with a procurement volume of 1000 tons [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the silicon iron and manganese silicon industries are both "shockingly strong due to the boost of macro - sentiment" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are affected by macro - sentiment and are expected to show a shockingly strong trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing prices of SiFe2508 and SiFe2509 are 5446 and 5436 respectively, up 166 from the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 8,955 and 274,236, and the open interests are 21,646 and 195,900. For manganese silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2508 and MnSi2509 are 5712 and 5726 respectively, up 96 and 102. Their trading volumes are 6,962 and 305,351, and the open interests are 13,908 and 382,828 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5100 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 38.5 yuan/ton - degree (up 0.2), and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 580 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 08 futures price difference of silicon iron is - 346 yuan/ton (down 166), the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon is - 226 yuan/ton (down 102). The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2508 - 2509 is 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and that of manganese silicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton (up 4). The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2508 - silicon iron 2508 is 266 yuan/ton (down 70), and that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 is 290 yuan/ton (down 64) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 2, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was reported, with Inner Mongolia's price range of 5100 - 5150 (down 50). The price range of 75 silicon iron was also reported. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron were 1000 - 1030 and 1080 - 1110 US dollars/ton respectively. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese in the north was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 50), and in the south was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 50) [2] - According to the latest data from the South African Trade Statistics Bureau, South Africa's manganese ore exports in May were 2,429,691 tons, a slight increase of 0.82% month - on - month and a slight decrease of 6.14% year - on - year. From January to May 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 10.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% compared with 9.92 million tons in the same period last year, reaching a new high in the past 8 years [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 1, and that of manganese silicon is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Silicon iron experiences wide - range fluctuations as short - sellers reduce positions, while manganese silicon shows a relatively strong oscillation due to the upward shift of Australian ore port quotes [2]. - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0 (neutral), and that of manganese silicon is 1 (slightly strong) [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon iron 2506 has a closing price of 5472 yuan, up 42 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 99,230 and an open interest of 98,368. Silicon iron 2509 has a closing price of 5466 yuan, up 14 yuan, a trading volume of 51,380, and an open interest of 139,398 [2]. - Manganese silicon 2506 has a closing price of 5704 yuan, up 160 yuan, a trading volume of 20,612, and an open interest of 36,987. Manganese silicon 2509 has a closing price of 5758 yuan, up 160 yuan, a trading volume of 374,215, and an open interest of 412,745 [2]. - **Spot Price**: - The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5450 yuan/ton, and the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 36.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 620 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Differences**: - The spot - 06 futures price difference of silicon iron is - 22 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon is - 238 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan. - The 2506 - 2509 price difference of silicon iron is 6 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan, and the 2506 - 2509 price difference of manganese silicon is - 54 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cross - variety price difference between manganese silicon 2506 and silicon iron 2506 is 232 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan; the cross - variety price difference between manganese silicon 2509 and silicon iron 2509 is 292 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On May 8th, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1030 - 1060 dollars/ton (down 30 dollars). The mainstream price of 6517 silicon manganese is in the range of 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan) [2][4]. - **Production Reduction News**: A representative silicon manganese plant in Guangxi continued to cut production in May. Currently, only a few furnaces are in operation, and the monthly output of 6517 silicon manganese has dropped to about 11,000 tons. The silicon manganese pricing of Zhongtian Nantong is 5620 yuan/ton (silver acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), down 10 yuan/ton from before the holiday [2][4]. - **Manganese Ore Export News**: South32's June 2025 offer for South African semi - carbonate lump (typical Mn36.9%) is 3.8 dollars/ton - degree, down 0.25 dollars/ton - degree from the previous month. In March 2025, South Africa's manganese ore export volume was 2,336,242 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 26.88% and a year - on - year increase of 34.79%. From January to March 2025, the total export volume of South African manganese ore was 6,054,688 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.77%. In March, South Africa's manganese ore exports to China were 1,556,464 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.68%, and exports to India were 353,243 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.76%. Exports to the top five countries accounted for 91.54% of the total manganese ore exports [4].