国债衍生品周报 2026/2/27 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 国债到期收益率 source： wind % 2Y国债到期收益率 5Y国债到期收益率 10Y国债到期收益率 30Y国债到期收益率 7Y国债到期收益率 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 2 3 资金利率 source： wind % 存款类机构质押式回购加权利率:1天 存款类机构质押式回购加权利率:7天 逆回购利率：7天 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 1 2 3 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（ ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 硅铁：地产情绪扰动，板块低位震荡 锰硅：地产情绪扰动，板块低位震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5492 | 1 6 | 5,859 | 9,618 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5486 | 1 6 | 104,314 | 224,182 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5710 | 1 4 | 7,664 | 18,340 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5752 | 1 4 | 140,366 | 453,701 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5170 | -30.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeM ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, the A - share market showed a "good start" at the beginning of the year. With the strengthening of the domestic economic improvement expectation, the slow - bull pattern of A - shares is gradually stabilizing. Long - term bullish thinking should be maintained, and the strategy is to buy on dips. IF and IC may perform relatively better [7][10]. - For treasury bonds, in January, bond yields may first rise and then fall. In the short term, the rebound sustainability of the bond market may be weak, and the release of fundamental data next week may provide new information and guidance [78][81][82]. - For shipping indices, the spot high may be approaching. Considering the increasing expectation of Red Sea route resumption after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [99]. 4. Summary by Directory Stock Index Market Review - The A - share market had a "good start" at the beginning of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and the total market turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan. From January 5th to 9th, 2026, the A - share market rose with increased volume. Small and medium - cap stocks performed more strongly, and the futures market was stronger than the spot market [7]. - The US economic data shows resilience, and the Fed official Milan expects about 150 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2026. Domestically, CPI and PPI data are positive, and the policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption are taking effect. The performance of high - growth sectors such as military industry and high - end manufacturing is strong, while some traditional industries face pressure [10]. 成交持仓分析 - The trading volume of stock index futures increased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 2.82, 1.02, 3.90, and 2.77 million lots respectively compared with last week [11]. - The open interest of stock index futures generally increased. The average daily open interests of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 1.05, 0.49, 2.33, and 0.99 million lots respectively compared with last week [11]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis narrowed. The annualized basis rates of all major contracts increased compared with the previous week [16]. - The spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were negative, and the spreads between the current - quarter and current - month contracts generally narrowed [24]. - The CSI 300 was stronger than the SSE 50, and small and medium - cap stocks performed better [25]. 行业板块概况 - In the CSI 300, the materials, medicine, and information sectors led the gains, while only the communication sector declined. In the CSI 500, the communication, information, and industrial sectors led the gains, and the financial sector had the smallest increase [27]. - At the first - level industry level, the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains, and only the banking sector declined [32]. 估值比较 - As of January 9th, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at relatively high historical levels [34]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Due to the implementation of the new public fund fee regulations and concerns about the supply peak of interest - rate bonds, treasury bond futures fell from Monday to Wednesday and rebounded on Thursday. The long - term futures performed stronger than the spot in the long - end, while the short - end was the opposite. Currently, there is no positive arbitrage space for all major contracts, and attention should be paid to shorting the 30 - year basis. It is not recommended to participate in the inter - period strategy, and the flattening strategy is recommended [40][41][44]. - **Bond Spot Market**: The yields of most treasury bond spots increased this week. The A - share strength and supply concerns suppressed the bond market. The US bond yields first decreased and then increased, with little change overall [64]. - **Funding Situation**: After the New Year, the central bank withdrew funds, and the funding situation remained stable. The funding rates declined across the board [70][73]. - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: The yields of most interest rate swap varieties declined this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [76]. Market Analysis - **Recent Market Logic**: In December, the bond market was weakly volatile. In January, as the negative factors gradually materialized, the bond market may first face pressure and then have a chance of low - level recovery [78]. - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: The December inflation data was better than expected. CPI and PPI showed a positive trend, indicating a mild recovery of inflation [79]. - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: In the short term, the bond market lacks clear direction, and the rebound sustainability may be weak. The release of fundamental data next week may provide new guidance [81][82]. Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - There are a large amount of reverse repurchase and other open - market operations maturing next week, and important economic data such as December social financing and import - export data will be released [84]. Shipping Index Market Review - Shipping companies lowered their quotes for late January, causing the EC futures to rise first and then fall significantly in the second half of the week [85]. 集运市场情况 - **Spot Market**: The price increase in December was well - implemented, and the quotes remained stable in the first half of January. However, shipping companies' price cuts for late January may indicate an inflection point in the spot market [90]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the European container capacity is still higher than the same period in previous years. With the potential delivery of new ships, the capacity may continue to grow. In the Red Sea area, the resumption of routes by major shipping companies may lead to short - term port congestion and long - term over - supply. In terms of demand, the European demand is expected to improve slowly, and the boost to shipping prices may be limited [95][96]. Market Outlook - The spot high may be approaching. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [99].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views of the Reports 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - Presents detailed data on the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios, including IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] 2. **Interest Rate Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report** - Provides data on the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL interest rate futures, along with their changes and percentiles since listing [2] 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Future market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical situation in South America. Precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility in January. Suggestions include long - position gold allocation on dips, light long - position silver trading with option hedging, and long - position platinum trading due to its strong external market performance [3] 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Shows the increase in settlement price indices and Shanghai export container freight rates. Futures prices of container shipping indices have also risen, and there are changes in fundamental data such as supply, port indicators, and overseas economic indicators [7][8] Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Spread Data**: Includes IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' spot - futures spreads, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios, with specific values, changes, and quantiles [1] 2. **Interest Rate Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report** - **Basis Data**: TS, TF, T, and TL futures' basis values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2] - **Cross - Period Spread Data**: Cross - period spreads of different contracts and their changes and percentiles [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread Data**: Cross - variety spreads among different interest rate futures and their changes and percentiles [2] 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic and foreign precious metals futures closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of various precious metals, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Basis**: Basis values of different precious metals, price changes, and 1 - year quantiles [3] - **Ratio**: Ratios of different precious metals, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes and percentage changes [3] - **Inventory and Position**: Inventory and position data of precious metals, changes, and percentage changes [3] 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS for European and US West routes, with price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI comprehensive index, European, US West, and US East routes, with price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping index contracts, price changes, percentage changes, and basis value changes of the main contract [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply, Shanghai port indicators (quasi - arrival rate, berthing situation), monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators (euro - zone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, OECD leading indicators), with their changes and percentage changes [7] - **Spot Quotation**: Spot freight rates of Shanghai - Europe routes for different shipping companies, price changes, and percentage changes [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, the steel tender pricing is settled, and caution should be exercised regarding market sentiment. For silicomanganese, the inquiry sentiment is strong after the holiday, and waiting for the steel tender settlement [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Ferrosilicon 2603 closed at 5672, down 78 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 225,315 and an open interest of 218,692. Ferrosilicon 2605 closed at 5628, down 78, with a trading volume of 28,644 and an open interest of 47,924. Silicomanganese 2603 closed at 5920, down 22, with a trading volume of 146,560 and an open interest of 267,767. Silicomanganese 2605 closed at 5936, down 12, with a trading volume of 66,562 and an open interest of 206,794 [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The aggregated price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5320 yuan/ton. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price Spreads - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 03 futures) was - 352 yuan/ton, up 78. The spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 03 futures) was - 270 yuan/ton, up 22. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2603 - 2605 was 44 yuan/ton, unchanged. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2603 - 2605 was - 16 yuan/ton, down 10. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 was 248 yuan/ton, up 56. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 was 308 yuan/ton, up 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 4, the prices of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions were: Shaanxi 5150 - 5300 (+25), Ningxia 5300 - 5350, Qinghai 5200 - 5300, Gansu 5250 - 5350, Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5350 (+50); 75 ferrosilicon: Shaanxi 5600 - 5700, Ningxia 5600 - 5650, Qinghai 5600, Gansu 5550 - 5600, Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5700 (+50). The FOB prices were 721030 - 1050(+10), 751090 - 1120 (US dollars/ton,含税). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton (-25) [2] - Hegang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon for January at 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from December, with a quantity of 3313 tons, an increase of 563 tons from December [2] - In December 2025, the manganese ore dredging volume at Tianjin Port was 2,388,476 tons, a 17.28% increase from November's 2,036,533 tons and a 14.49% decrease from December 2024's 2,793,090 tons. From January to December 2025, the manganese ore dredging volume at Tianjin Port was 23,913,195 tons, a 15.17% increase from the same period in 2024, an increase of 3.15 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon was 0; the trend intensity of silicomanganese was 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LPG futures contract's closing price increased by 28 yuan/ton to 4317 yuan/ton, a 0.65% rise. The national LPG market price went up, with the average price reaching 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase from the previous workday. The LPG market is expected to operate in a range - bound manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Overview - The international LPG market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, but the overall price center shifted upward. The non - US supply was tight while market buying interest remained strong. The Middle East's January shipment negotiations were active, and the demand was firm. The Far - East arbitrage window in the European and American markets was still open, but buying interest weakened due to shrinking arbitrage. In the Far - East market, LPG prices rose first and then fell. In the shipping market, freight rates from the Middle East to the Far East and from the US Gulf of Mexico to the Far East both increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Regional Market Conditions 3.2.1 East China Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 13 yuan/ton to 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The market in East China mainly rose this week. The release of December CP last week increased the import cost, supporting the sentiment of upstream and downstream. The refinery supply in Shanghai and Jiangsu decreased, and the overall supply showed an obvious narrowing trend. Chemical demand increased slightly, and downstream enthusiasm for entering the market was strong. The import cost increased, but the price increase of imported gas was less than that of domestic gas [3]. 3.2.2 South China Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 25 yuan/ton to 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase. The LPG market in South China rose across the board this week. Supply tightness and cost increase were the main supporting factors. For civil gas, terminals led the price increase. Due to delayed ship arrivals, some terminal inventories were low, and importers continuously raised prices. Refineries quickly followed suit. For industrial gas, the supply pressure of refineries was relieved, and the prices also increased [3]. 3.2.3 Shandong Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 10 yuan/ton to 4460 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase, and the average price of ether - post - carbon - four increased by 6 yuan/ton to 4281 yuan/ton. The civil LPG market in Shandong first remained stable and then rose, reaching a high in nearly two months. The increase in CP led to an obvious rise in import costs, driving up the price of related propane and slightly improving the profitability of downstream chemical plants [3]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Futures prices: The closing price of the main LPG futures contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 4317 yuan/ton, a 0.65% increase; the settlement price increased by 19 yuan/ton to 4301 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase. - Inter - month spreads: The spreads between different LPG contracts showed different changes, such as PG2601 - PG2602 being - 15 yuan/ton (down from 96 yuan/ton), and PG2601 - PG2603 being 229 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). - Cross - variety spreads: For example, PG - 7.33*SC was 999.44 yuan/ton, a 0.50% decrease [3]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production cost of PDH - made propylene was 6392 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease; the production cost of PDH - made PP was 7575.55 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was - 397 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease; the production profit of PDH - made PP was - 1252.22 yuan/ton, a 7.35% decrease [3]. 3.5 Other Information - Freight rates: Freight rates for different shipping routes remained unchanged. - Exchange - rate and interest - rate: The US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and SHIBOR - overnight remained basically unchanged at 1.3020% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various financial products, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping industry. They offer insights into price changes, spreads, and related market indicators, but no overarching core view is explicitly stated. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Price and Spread Data**: On December 4, 2025, data on various stock index futures spreads are presented, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IC spot - futures spread was 12.15, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 23.50% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided, along with their changes and historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and Spread Data**: On December 3, 2025, data on basis and spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures are given. For instance, the T basis was 1.9644, with a change of - 0.0373 and a historical percentile of 68.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads between different treasury bond futures, like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented [2]. Precious Metals - **Price Changes**: Domestic and foreign futures, as well as spot prices of precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), are reported. For example, the AU2602 contract closed at 956.70 yuan/gram on December 3, down 1.72 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis values and price ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver) are provided, along with their changes and historical percentiles [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are presented [5]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Information on inventories of precious metals in domestic and foreign exchanges and ETF holdings is given [5]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Changes**: SCFIS (European and US West routes) and SCFI (composite, European, US West, and US East) indices are reported, along with their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC contracts and the basis of the main contract are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (Shanghai port on - time rate, port calls), monthly export volume, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, OECD leading indicators) are provided [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Silicon ferroalloy (silicon iron and ferromanganese) is expected to experience wide - range oscillations, with Silicon iron affected by sector sentiment resonance and ferromanganese supported by price - holding sentiment at the ore end [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Silicon iron 2601 closed at 5588, up 62 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 165,588 and an open interest of 162,088. Silicon iron 2605 closed at 5654, up 62, with a trading volume of 3,798 and an open interest of 10,807 [1] - Ferromanganese 2601 closed at 5820, up 60, with a trading volume of 213,766 and an open interest of 354,763. Ferromanganese 2605 closed at 5878, up 64, with a trading volume of 15,756 and an open interest of 45,381 [1] - **Spot Data** - The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton, and the price of ferromanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5620 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 820 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data** - The spot - futures spread of silicon iron (spot - 01 futures) was - 368 yuan/ton, down 62. The spot - futures spread of ferromanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 200 yuan/ton, down 60 [1] - The near - far month spread of silicon iron 2601 - 2605 was - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged. The near - far month spread of ferromanganese 2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, down 4 [1] - The cross - variety spread of ferromanganese 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 232 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety spread of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 was 224 yuan/ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Coal and Coke News** - On November 6th, the starting price of Hongliulin lump coal, the raw material for semi - coke, was 720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous period. The auction volume was 7.8 tons, down 2.8 tons. The average transaction price was 783.36 yuan/ton, up 78.39 yuan/ton. The lowest auction price was 773 yuan/ton, and the highest was 790 yuan/ton [1] - **Ferroalloy Price News** - On November 10th, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 (+50), in Ningxia 5200 - 5250, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 (+25), in Gansu 5150 - 5250, and in Inner Mongolia 5150 - 5250. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5700, in Qinghai 5600 - 5700, in Gansu 5650 - 5700, and in Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5700. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 (-10), and that of 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [2] - **Ferroalloy Tendering News** - A large steel group in Hebei tendered 16,000 tons of ferromanganese in November, 500 tons less than in October. The tender notice for 75B silicon iron was for 2716 tons, 240 tons less than in October [3] - **Ferroalloy Production News** - From January to October 2025, the total national production of ferromanganese was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia producing 438.51 million tons, accounting for 48.5% of the national total. There are currently 28 operating factories in Inner Mongolia, and 13 have new production capacities, which are expected to be launched from November 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026. The current monthly production of ferromanganese in the factories to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026 is about 16.1 million tons, and the subsequent new monthly production is expected to be about 25.9 million tons. Over 90% of the new production capacity is for 6517 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of ferromanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the closing price of SiFe2601 is 5526, up 26 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 118,520 and an open interest of 158,005; SiFe2605 has a closing price of 5604, up 38, a trading volume of 2,227, and an open interest of 8,437. For manganese ferroalloy, MnSi2601 has a closing price of 5794, up 22, a trading volume of 161,410, and an open interest of 350,214; MnSi2605 has a closing price of 5846, up 30, a trading volume of 11,640, and an open interest of 42,056 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day), manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - January futures spread of silicon ferroalloy is - 276 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton), that of manganese ferroalloy is - 144 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan/ton). The near - far month spread of silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2601 - 2605) is - 78 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton), and that of manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2601 - 2605) is - 52 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton). The cross - variety spread of MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 is 268 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton), and that of MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 is 242 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [1]. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Price Information**: On November 3, 2025, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), in Qinghai is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Gansu is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Ningxia is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and 75 is 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and the southern quotation is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1]. - **Electricity Price and Market**: In October 2025, the electricity price for silicon ferroalloy production in Qinghai was settled. The off - peak electricity price is 0.375 - 0.42 yuan/kWh, and the full - load electricity price is 0.43 - 0.44 yuan/kWh, up 3 - 6 cents, resulting in an inverted cost situation. The futures market opened lower and rose slightly, and the factory market price in the morning was relatively stable [1]. - **Production Forecast**: From January to October 2025, the total production of silicon manganese was about 9.0396 million tons, with 6517 silicon manganese accounting for 88.4% of the total. The production from April to June was at a low level, and it has rebounded significantly since July. It is expected that the production of 6517 silicon manganese will continue to increase from November to December, and the monthly production may exceed 900,000 tons. The production and proportion of medium - and high - silicon silicon manganese are slowly rising, mainly due to new production capacity and the conversion from 6517 production. The demand for special medium - silicon silicon manganese from downstream stainless - steel mills has increased significantly [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to experience weak and volatile trends due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents a. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy futures, SiFe2601 closed at 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 151,902 and an open interest of 163,466; SiFe2605 closed at 5566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,745 and an open interest of 7,516. For manganese ferroalloy futures, MnSi2601 closed at 5772 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, with a trading volume of 218,323 and an open interest of 352,439; MnSi2605 closed at 5816 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan, with a trading volume of 13,655 and an open interest of 39,646 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference for silicon ferroalloy (spot - 01 futures) was - 250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; for manganese ferroalloy, it was - 112 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The near - far month price difference for silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2601 - 2605) was - 66 yuan/ton, and for manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2601 - 2605) was - 44 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference for MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 was 272 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; for MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 was 250 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On October 31st, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (+25), in Gansu 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton (-10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1] - **Production Information**: In October, the production of manganese ferroalloy factories in Ningxia was basically unchanged, with individual factories switching from high - silicon silicon - manganese to 6517 at the end of the month, having little impact on production. The total production of silicon - manganese in Ningxia was about 21.07 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 19.97 million tons. In Inner Mongolia, some factories reduced production or switched production at the end of the month, while some resumed production after the National Day, with overall production still showing a slight increase. The total production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia in October was about 45.48 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 36.53 million tons. In October, there were 77 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in production nationwide, with 249 submerged arc furnaces in operation. The average monthly start - up rate of silicon ferroalloy in October was 50.83%, a slight decrease of 0.05% compared to September. The production was expected to be 48.9 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons compared to September, a growth rate of 2.13%, and a decrease of 0.55 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 459.6 million tons, an increase of 1.71 million tons compared to the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.37% [1][3] - **Inventory Information**: As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 377.64 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from the previous period; at Qinzhou Port, it was 47.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.76 million tons; at Caofeidian Port, it was 0 million tons with no inbound or outbound manganese ore this week; at Fangchenggang Port, it was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons. As of October 31st, the total manganese ore inventory was 425.61 million tons, a decrease of 9.81 million tons from the previous period [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]