Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25%, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year [1] - The Fed's statement indicated a shift in focus from inflation to employment, noting a slowdown in job growth and an increase in unemployment, while also acknowledging that inflation remains high [2] - The Fed raised its growth and inflation forecasts, predicting growth rates of 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and adjusting the inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.6% [3] Group 2 - Market reactions included a temporary sell-off followed by a V-shaped recovery, with the S&P 500 initially dropping 0.5% before recovering most of its losses [4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be further compromised, as the White House seeks to exert more control over Fed appointments, potentially leading to higher inflation risks and a decline in the dollar's credibility [5][6]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 9 月 18 日，美联储降息 25bp，至 4.0-4.25%。资产表现方面，获利盘一度止盈离场，但多数资产出现 V 型 走势，除贵金属外基本收复此前跌幅。点阵图显示年内继续降息 50bp，基本符合预期。数据预测对明年的通胀 担忧略有升温，同时对增长较 6 月更为乐观。 第一，美联储降息幅度及年内降息节奏基本符合预期。对比会议 FOMC 声明与 7 月的差别，主要是对劳动 力市场措辞调整为"就业增长已经放缓，失业率略有上升，不过仍维持在较低水平"，同时在双重使命方面，提 到"就业下行风险已经增加"。通胀方面，在"通胀某种程度上依然高企"的基础上加入"通胀上升"。此外，删 除了净出口波动对数据产生影响的表述。美联储此次降息 25bp 后，点阵图显示年内的 10 月、12 月两次会议合 计降 50bp（其中一人支持再降息 125bp，可能是新晋理事米兰），与市场预期较为接近。 鲍威尔在记者会上表示将政策重点从通胀转向就业。关于关税传导的表述明显缓和，表示"关税向通胀的 传导已经放慢且变小，对核心 PCE 贡献 0.3-0.4 个百分点"。而对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示，劳动力需求已经 减 ...