我们相信，从货币政策的角度来看，美元走弱和日元走强的持续性倾向将会存在。 这一预期与日元近期的疲软表现形成鲜明对比。由于政治不确定性和关税问题给日本央行的加息路径蒙上阴影，日元在过去三个月的主要货币中表现 最差。 【 热门视频推荐 】 日本持有的美国国债是其外汇储备的关键组成部分，这些资产的久期估计在3-5年。然而，根据关税协议设立的这只投资基金，预计将投资于期限为 10-20年的美国资产。 如果日本通过出售短期美债来为这只长期投资基金融资，这种资金调动可能推高美国长期债券收益率。为了稳定市场，美国可能向日本施压，要求其 在管理外汇储备时延长所持美债的久期。 这种为应对潜在市场波动而进行的高层级双边协调，便是花旗所称的"迷你海湖庄园协议"的基础。花旗分析师强调： 来源|华尔街见闻 花旗认为，美日关税协议中涉及的5500亿美元投资基金，可能将催生某种形式的双边"迷你海湖庄园协议"，推动美元走弱、日元走强。 9月12日，花旗分析师Osamu Takashima发布研报指出，日本计划向美国投资的5500亿美元资金来源，可能严重依赖日本的1.3万亿美元外汇储 备。报告指出： 我们并非预期多边货币政策会出现类似'海湖庄 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi suggests that the $550 billion investment fund involved in the US-Japan tariff agreement may lead to a form of a bilateral "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement," which could weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen [1] Group 1: Investment Fund and Currency Implications - Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US is likely to heavily rely on its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - The investment fund established under the tariff agreement is expected to invest in US assets with maturities of 10-20 years, contrasting with Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds, which have an estimated duration of 3-5 years [1] - If Japan sells short-term US Treasuries to finance this long-term investment fund, it may lead to an increase in US long-term bond yields [1] Group 2: Bilateral Coordination and Market Stability - The potential for high-level bilateral coordination to address market volatility is the basis for what Citi refers to as the "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement" [1] - Citi analysts believe that there will be a persistent tendency for the dollar to weaken and the yen to strengthen from a monetary policy perspective [1] Group 3: Yen Performance Context - This expectation contrasts sharply with the recent weak performance of the yen, which has been the worst-performing major currency over the past three months due to political uncertainty and tariff issues affecting the Bank of Japan's rate hike path [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that the $550 billion investment fund involved in the US-Japan tariff agreement may lead to a form of a bilateral "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement," which could drive a weaker dollar and a stronger yen [1][2] Group 1: Investment Fund and Currency Implications - Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US is likely to heavily rely on its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - The investment fund established under the tariff agreement is expected to invest in US assets with maturities of 10-20 years, contrasting with Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds, which have an estimated duration of 3-5 years [1] - If Japan sells short-term US Treasuries to finance this long-term investment fund, it could lead to an increase in US long-term bond yields [2] Group 2: Bilateral Coordination and Market Stability - To stabilize the market, the US may pressure Japan to extend the duration of its US Treasury holdings when managing its foreign exchange reserves [2] - This high-level bilateral coordination to address potential market volatility is the basis for what Citi refers to as the "mini Mar-a-Lago agreement" [2] - From a monetary policy perspective, there is an expected ongoing trend of a weaker dollar and a stronger yen, which contrasts sharply with the recent weak performance of the yen due to political uncertainties and tariff issues affecting the Bank of Japan's rate hike path [2]