高盛消费者研究：与高盛消费行业专家及交易员的对话 20260129 摘要 美国消费板块受益于轮动行情，但仓位仍处于低位，可负担性问题成为 中期选举前利好因素，1,000 亿美元退税规模预计在 2-4 月带来强劲支 撑，但一季度末需警惕回落风险。 投资者对消费板块乐观但未大量买入，因下半年就业市场不确定性及 AI 压力，资金更多流入利率敏感型大额消费领域，如工业和房地产板块。 拉夫劳伦、盖璞、Wayfair、Capri、李维斯、Yeti、梅西百货和 Warby 等企业更受投资者青睐，而沃尔玛、Dick's Sporting Goods、AutoZone、汤美费格、百思买和家得宝等企业争议较大。 折扣零售方面，Ross 和 TJ 预计将再次交出亮眼业绩，而 Best Buy 自 黑色星期五以来市场情绪转为负面，Dollar General 同店销售增速有望 突破 3%，Dick's Sporting Goods 因核心业务增速放缓引发市场谨慎。 科技板块动态值得关注，亚马逊裁员等消息可能对零售板块产生影响， 市场分化仍将维持高位，对冲基金 VIP 组合与最空头组合价差今年以来 下跌 13%，需密切关注。 投资者目 ...

Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In November, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, significantly higher than the revised decline of 0.1% in October and exceeding the economist forecast of 0.4% [2][8] - Sales in various retail categories rose, with specialty stores (1.9%), gas stations (1.4%), and home improvement stores (1.3%) showing the highest growth [2][8] - Core retail sales, excluding volatile items, grew by 0.4% in November, far surpassing the predicted decline of 0.1% [2][8] - Only two categories saw a decline in sales: furniture stores decreased by 0.1%, and department stores fell significantly by 2.9% [2][8] Group 2: Economic Resilience - Despite concerns over the economic situation and a slowing job market, consumer spending remains strong, which is crucial as it constitutes about two-thirds of the U.S. economy [3][9] - The resilience of consumer spending is highlighted by the fact that retail sales play a significant role within overall consumer expenditure [3][9] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The economic outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of accelerated growth, particularly as tax refund funds are distributed to the public [4][10] - Analysts predict that total tax refunds in 2026 will reach $517 billion, the highest since 2017 when excluding pandemic-related stimulus years [4][10] - The anticipated increase in tax refunds, along with new tax cuts, could contribute 0.8 percentage points to the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 [6][11] - Many households are expected to receive $500 to $1,000 more in tax refunds compared to previous years, which could boost consumption or help pay off credit card debt [6][11] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at a peak of 4.4% in 2026, with no signs of a drastic downturn in the job market [6][11]

Core Insights - The Nepalese tax authority (IRD) reported over 4 billion NPR in tax refunds for the fiscal year 2081/82 (2024/25), primarily involving diplomatic missions, diplomats, international organizations, exporters, and project-based taxpayers [1] Group 1: Tax Refunds Overview - A significant portion of the tax refunds pertains to diplomatic missions and diplomats, with total refund applications amounting to 526.21 million NPR and actual refunds of 455.88 million NPR [1] - Taxpayers and projects submitted refund applications totaling 22.52 billion NPR, with the government approving and refunding 4.38 billion NPR [1] Group 2: Tax Refund Department Functions - The tax refund department is responsible for processing VAT refunds for diplomatic missions and diplomats, handling VAT refunds for international organizations granted tax-exempt status by the Ministry of Finance, and supervising refund-related activities of subordinate offices [1] - The department aims to expedite the VAT refund process for entities with diplomatic privileges by addressing policy and legal complexities through case submissions to higher authorities [1] Group 3: Process Optimization - To enhance efficiency, the government approved and implemented the "2080 Electronic VAT Refund Regulations for Diplomatic Missions, Diplomats, and Diplomatic Institutions" on October 20, 2023, facilitating electronic processing of tax refunds [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed former President Trump's proposal to issue $2,000 tax refunds to households earning less than $100,000 annually [1] Group 1 - The proposal targets low-income families, specifically those with annual incomes below $100,000 [1] - The suggested tax refund amount is $2,000 per household [1]