美国11月消费者信心指数跌至88.7 创7个月来最低值 美国商务部当天公布数据显示，9月零售销售额环比增长0.2%，增速较8月数据有所放缓，低于市场预 期。该数据因此前联邦政府"停摆"延迟发布。 经济学家认为，今年第三季度美国经济预计增长3%，第四季度增速会放缓，超过一个月的政府"停 摆"是拖累第四季度经济增长的主要因素。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 中新社华盛顿11月25日电 (记者 沙晗汀)世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)当地时间25日公布数据 显示，美国11月消费者信心指数跌至88.7，创7个月来最低值，低于市场预期。 数据显示，11月美国消费者信心指数为88.7，较10月修正数据下降6.8。具体来看，基于消费者对当前商 业和劳动力市场状况评估的现状指数为126.9，较10月数据下降4.3。基于消费者对收入、商业和劳动力 市场状况短期展望的预期指数为63.2，较10月数据下降8.6。通常情况下，如果该指数低于80，则预示着 接下来将进入衰退。 数据还显示，11月35岁以下消费者信心指数有所上升，35岁及以上消费者信心指数出现下降，55岁及以 上消费者信心指数降幅最大。按收入来看，年收入 ...

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose to 61.8 in July, the highest level in nearly five months, reflecting a 1.8% increase from June's 60.7, but a 6.9% decrease year-over-year [1][2] - The index for current conditions increased to 66.8, up 3.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year, while the future expectations index rose to 58.6%, a 0.9% increase month-over-month but a 14.8% decrease year-over-year [1] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased to 4.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from June, and for the next five years, it fell to 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage points, marking the lowest expectations since February [1] Group 2 - Despite the increase in consumer confidence, it remains 16% lower than the December figures and significantly below historical averages, indicating ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability [2] - The report suggests that consumer confidence is contingent on stable future inflation conditions, with external factors like trade policies playing a crucial role [2] - Recent government policies, such as the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, have had minimal impact on consumer confidence, highlighting the complexity of consumer sentiment in relation to policy changes [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, rebounding from a sharp decline of 0.9% in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% increase [1] - The data indicates that 10 out of 13 retail categories experienced growth, driven by a rise in automobile sales, which had previously been declining [4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remains a focal point for investors and policymakers, especially in light of concerns over rising prices due to tariffs [4] Retail Sales Performance - The June retail sales data has been seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, suggesting that the growth may be influenced by price increases rather than actual sales volume [5] - Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales rose by 0.5%, with May's figure revised down to 0.2% [5] Consumer Sentiment - Despite the recent uptick in retail sales, there are indications of a pessimistic outlook among Americans regarding their economic and financial conditions, largely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by tariffs [4] - Some analysts caution that the growth in retail sales may be partially attributed to price hikes driven by tariffs rather than an increase in consumer demand [5]

Group 1 - Australia's retail sales in April 2025 increased by approximately 3.8% year-on-year but decreased by about 0.1% month-on-month, reaching around 37.208 billion AUD (approximately 172.281 billion CNY) [1] - In March 2025, Australia's retail sales saw a month-on-month increase of about 0.3%, while February recorded a month-on-month growth of approximately 0.2% [1] - The retail sector in Queensland has recovered from the impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred in March, but overall household retail spending in Australia declined in April, particularly in clothing purchases [1] Group 2 - In April 2025, the food retail sector in Australia experienced a month-on-month sales decline of 0.3%, while the home goods retail sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [1] - Sales in the clothing, footwear, and personal accessories retail sector decreased by 2.5% month-on-month, and department store sales also fell by 2.5% [1] - The café, restaurant, and takeaway food services sector experienced a month-on-month sales increase of 1.1%, while other retail sectors saw a month-on-month growth of 0.7% [1] Group 3 - Australia's online retail sales in April 2025 increased by 7.3% year-on-year and grew by 0.6% month-on-month, reaching approximately 4.537 billion AUD [2] - In March 2025, food-related online sales grew by about 4.5% compared to February, amounting to approximately 1.402 billion AUD, while non-food-related sales decreased by 1.1% to around 3.135 billion AUD [2]