Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose to 61.8 in July, the highest level in nearly five months, reflecting a 1.8% increase from June's 60.7, but a 6.9% decrease year-over-year [1][2] - The index for current conditions increased to 66.8, up 3.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year, while the future expectations index rose to 58.6%, a 0.9% increase month-over-month but a 14.8% decrease year-over-year [1] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased to 4.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from June, and for the next five years, it fell to 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage points, marking the lowest expectations since February [1] Group 2 - Despite the increase in consumer confidence, it remains 16% lower than the December figures and significantly below historical averages, indicating ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability [2] - The report suggests that consumer confidence is contingent on stable future inflation conditions, with external factors like trade policies playing a crucial role [2] - Recent government policies, such as the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, have had minimal impact on consumer confidence, highlighting the complexity of consumer sentiment in relation to policy changes [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, rebounding from a sharp decline of 0.9% in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% increase [1] - The data indicates that 10 out of 13 retail categories experienced growth, driven by a rise in automobile sales, which had previously been declining [4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remains a focal point for investors and policymakers, especially in light of concerns over rising prices due to tariffs [4] Retail Sales Performance - The June retail sales data has been seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, suggesting that the growth may be influenced by price increases rather than actual sales volume [5] - Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales rose by 0.5%, with May's figure revised down to 0.2% [5] Consumer Sentiment - Despite the recent uptick in retail sales, there are indications of a pessimistic outlook among Americans regarding their economic and financial conditions, largely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by tariffs [4] - Some analysts caution that the growth in retail sales may be partially attributed to price hikes driven by tariffs rather than an increase in consumer demand [5]

Group 1 - Australia's retail sales in April 2025 increased by approximately 3.8% year-on-year but decreased by about 0.1% month-on-month, reaching around 37.208 billion AUD (approximately 172.281 billion CNY) [1] - In March 2025, Australia's retail sales saw a month-on-month increase of about 0.3%, while February recorded a month-on-month growth of approximately 0.2% [1] - The retail sector in Queensland has recovered from the impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred in March, but overall household retail spending in Australia declined in April, particularly in clothing purchases [1] Group 2 - In April 2025, the food retail sector in Australia experienced a month-on-month sales decline of 0.3%, while the home goods retail sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [1] - Sales in the clothing, footwear, and personal accessories retail sector decreased by 2.5% month-on-month, and department store sales also fell by 2.5% [1] - The café, restaurant, and takeaway food services sector experienced a month-on-month sales increase of 1.1%, while other retail sectors saw a month-on-month growth of 0.7% [1] Group 3 - Australia's online retail sales in April 2025 increased by 7.3% year-on-year and grew by 0.6% month-on-month, reaching approximately 4.537 billion AUD [2] - In March 2025, food-related online sales grew by about 4.5% compared to February, amounting to approximately 1.402 billion AUD, while non-food-related sales decreased by 1.1% to around 3.135 billion AUD [2]