商品日报 20250924 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 9 月 PMI 符合预期，国内股债商均有所调整 海外方面，鲍威尔称通胀上行与就业下行风险并存，美联储需权衡取舍，称关税属一次 性冲击，决策不受政治因素驱动；鲍曼则称在稳就业上动作滞后，若需求走弱或需加快降息。 美国 9 月标普制造业、服务业 PMI 基本符合预期，均处于扩张区间，企业虽受关税成本冲 击但未提价，也印证关税未必长期推升物价的观点。美股调整，美元指数震荡偏弱，金价再 创 3791 美元历史新高，油价受供应扰动上涨超 1%，铜价小幅收涨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 国内方面，周二股债商均有所调整，市场风险偏好回落。A 股放量调整，上证指数盘中 下跌超 1%、尾盘修复大部分，两市超 4000 家收跌、赚钱效应较弱，成交额回升至 2.5 万亿， 红利板块、创业板收涨，中证 1000、北证 50 等小票偏弱。股市主要交易前期上涨后的调整， 假期前夕有部分资金选择了结观望，目前基本面温和、四季度政策预期在升温， ...

Group 1: European Central Bank and Eurozone Bonds - Santander Bank analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% until later this year, indicating that 2% may be the lower limit for this rate cycle [1] - Barclays reports a significant decrease in net supply of Eurozone government bonds, projecting a shift from a net issuance of 780 billion euros in September to a negative 150 billion euros in October, which may support the bond market [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - ICIS economists highlight that the U.S. August CPI report complicates the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with inflation and employment data showing conflicting signals [2] - Market expectations indicate a high probability (90%) that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut of 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, with a potential for a more aggressive cut if economic conditions worsen [4] Group 3: Japanese Economic Outlook - Moody's economists note that Japan's inflation is primarily cost-push, lacking strong demand-driven inflation, leading the Bank of Japan to likely remain on hold until economic signals become clearer [2] Group 4: Indian Economic Growth - Dun & Bradstreet reports a significant year-on-year GDP growth of 7.8% for India in Q1 FY2026, with strong performance in manufacturing sectors such as basic metals and electrical equipment [3] - The Indian central bank maintains a neutral stance with a repo rate of 5.5%, while liquidity remains in surplus [3]

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets rose overall, with Hong Kong and US stocks leading the gains[1] - Major commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum also saw price increases[1] - The US dollar index fell slightly, while the offshore RMB and euro appreciated, and the yen depreciated[1] Domestic Equity Market - As of June 6, the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 11,857 billion RMB, up from 10,699 billion RMB[2] - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 25 sectors rose, with telecommunications (+5.27%), non-ferrous metals (+3.74%), and electronics (+3.60%) leading the gains[2] - Conversely, household appliances (-1.79%), food and beverage (-1.06%), and transportation (-0.54%) saw declines[2] Interest Rates and Currency Exchange - The People's Bank of China adopted a "short-term collection and long-term release" liquidity management strategy, leading to a decrease in short-term liquidity demand[2] - The 1Y government bond yield fell by 4.5 basis points to 1.41%, while the 10Y yield decreased by 1.65 basis points to 1.6547%[1] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar, closing at 7.1885[2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, but rose by 0.5 percentage points in May[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 3.0% year-on-year in April[2] - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 in April to 49.6 in May, indicating a contraction in manufacturing output globally[2] Commodity Trends - Crude oil prices rebounded significantly due to easing trade relations and OPEC+ moderate production increases[1] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 14.63% month-on-month to 62,300 units[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.2% week-on-week, indicating improved shipping demand[1]