当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上公开了一封致美联储理事丽莎·库克的信 件，宣布即刻将其免职。 这是美联储111年历史上前所未有的举动。近日，《华尔街日报》首席经济评论员、资深央行记者Greg Ip撰文表示，特朗普此举可能标志着美联储自1951年以来享有的独立性走向终结，而金融市场尚未真正 消化这个重大风险。 文章表示，无论特朗普的意图最终是否实现，这一事件都可能成为数十年来金融市场最关键的节点之 一。如果白宫最终得以控制货币政策，美国可能进入一个通胀更高、波动性更剧烈的时代。 投资银行Evercore ISI在周二给客户的报告中警告： "对于美联储独立性可能出现的破裂，资产市场的定价并不恰当。" Greg解释称，市场目前的平静，部分源于鲍威尔的鸽派暗示，这在短期内提振了股市。但更重要的是， 投资者缺乏一个政治化美联储的历史参照，因而错误地假设未来的央行官员会一如既往地根据经济数据 行事。 罢免地方联储行长将是史无前例的打破惯例之举，但特朗普已多次表明他愿意这样做。 文章强调，对投资者来说，一个更明智的假设是，从未来九个月的某个时候开始，美联储的利率决策将 开始遵循特朗普的偏好，而非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump may signal the end of the Fed's independence, a situation that financial markets have not fully priced in [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action could mark a critical turning point for the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to higher inflation and increased market volatility if the White House gains control over monetary policy [1]. - Evercore ISI warns that the market's current calmness does not adequately reflect the risks associated with the potential loss of Fed independence [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Historical Context - The market's response to Trump's threats against the Fed has been muted, partly due to dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, leading investors to mistakenly assume that future Fed officials will act based solely on economic data [2]. - Trump's gradual approach to exerting control over the Fed mirrors his trade policies, creating an illusion of stability while implementing significant changes [3]. Group 3: Potential Changes in Fed Leadership - If Trump successfully replaces Cook, he could appoint a majority of the Fed's Board of Governors, which may shift the decision-making dynamics within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [4]. - The potential removal of regional Fed presidents could further consolidate Trump's influence over monetary policy, despite the current structure that limits immediate control [4][5]. Group 4: Loyalty and Political Influence - Trump's strategy of seeking to dismiss Cook sends a clear message that he may take similar actions against any Fed official who does not align with his preferences [6]. - The current environment has led to a shift in how Fed nominees express their views, with many now openly supporting Trump's calls for lower interest rates despite prevailing economic conditions [7]. Group 5: Inflation Outlook - Short-term inflation is expected to be influenced by economic conditions rather than Fed actions, with a temporary rise anticipated due to tariffs before returning to target levels [8]. - The current macroeconomic policies, including high tariffs and stimulative fiscal measures, create an environment conducive to exceeding target inflation levels, suggesting a structural shift in inflation dynamics [8].