"美联储传声筒"：本周可能会有两位理事持反对意见 金十数据7月30日讯，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发表文章称，本周的美联储会议可能会有两位理事 持不同意见，这是30多年来（或者说连续259次政策会议）从未出现过的情况。鲍威尔和他的部分同事 已经表示倾向于在本周的会议上保持观望态度，而潜在的反对者——美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼——恰好是 特朗普总统任命的两名人选。两人都表示支持降息，特朗普也公开要求降息。SGH Macro Advisors首席 美国经济学家蒂姆·杜伊表示，"特朗普迟早会对每个机构产生影响，也许美联储抵抗这种影响的能力已 经结束了。"无论鲍威尔的决定如何，本周的分歧可能是不可避免的——如果美联储降息，则可能会面 临担心通胀重燃的鹰派人士的反对。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in long-term bond yields across major economies, including the US, Japan, and Europe, is driven by concerns over fiscal instability and inflation, leading to potential economic slowdown and market volatility [1][3][6]. Group 1: Bond Market Trends - On May 21, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond rose to nearly 5.1%, the highest level in 1.5 years, with an increase of over 0.4% since the beginning of May [3]. - The rise in yields is not limited to the US; the UK 30-year bond yield reached 5.5%, and Germany's rose to approximately 3.1% [3]. - Japan's newly issued 30-year and 40-year bonds also hit historical highs, reflecting a broader trend of increasing long-term interest rates [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Inflation - Concerns over inflation have intensified, with the US April employment data exceeding market expectations, leading to a belief that the Federal Reserve may only lower interest rates once this year [4]. - In the UK, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.5% year-on-year in April, the highest in 15 months, prompting discussions about the pace of future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Instability - The US Congress is coordinating fiscal legislation that could lead to a significant deterioration in fiscal health, with estimates suggesting a potential increase in public debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion over the next decade [6]. - Japan is also experiencing fiscal expansion discussions ahead of the summer elections, with proposals for tax cuts [6]. - The perception of fiscal instability is contributing to rising interest rates, as investors express concerns over the sustainability of government debt [6][7]. Group 4: Impact on Investment and Financial Markets - The increase in long-term interest rates poses challenges for investments reliant on long-term borrowing, such as housing, with the 30-year mortgage rate rising to 6.92% [8]. - High interest rates may lead to increased bankruptcies among heavily indebted companies and could impact financial institutions holding significant amounts of US Treasuries [8].