Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry, particularly two major groups (Huazhu and Jinjiang), has shown a strong recovery post-National Day, with RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) returning to positive year-on-year growth, even exceeding levels from 2024 [1][3][5]. - Business travel demand has significantly rebounded since May, with strong performance noted in July and August, surpassing last year's figures [1][6]. - The implementation of visa-free policies has led to a 120% year-on-year increase in overseas tourists spending in China, exceeding 2019 levels [1][7]. Key Performance Metrics - Huazhu's RevPAR has consistently remained between 95% and 99.6%, while Jinjiang's RevPAR improved to over 100% by the fourth week of October [1][3][4]. - Average Daily Rate (ADR) has remained stable compared to last year, indicating rational market competition among hotel groups [1][8]. - The overall hotel industry is expected to see a RevPAR growth of 3%-5% in 2026, with major hotel groups focusing on maintaining or increasing prices to meet budget targets [1][26]. Business Travel Insights - Business travel, which constitutes about 40%-42% of Huazhu's revenue, saw a decline of 6-10 percentage points in RevPAR during the first half of the year but has since recovered [1][12][6]. - The demand for business travel is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase in the coming months [9]. Tourism Demand Analysis - The tourism market has shown significant growth, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with a notable increase in foreign tourist numbers [1][7]. - Despite a slight decrease in per capita spending, the overall trend in domestic tourism remains optimistic [7]. Pricing Strategy and Market Dynamics - Hotel groups have refrained from price cuts to attract customers, focusing instead on long-term growth strategies [1][8]. - The expected budget increase for 2026 is around 3%-5%, indicating that prices are unlikely to decrease [26][27]. Competitive Landscape - Huazhu is expanding into lower-tier markets through localized development and strong operational strategies, particularly in Shenzhen and Guangzhou [4][31]. - The performance of small independent hotels is declining, with many facing operational challenges unless they join larger chains [16][19]. Future Outlook - The overall growth rate of the hotel industry is expected to slow down, with a projected growth of around 2% in 2026 [17]. - The focus will shift towards enhancing operational quality and efficiency rather than rapid expansion [19]. - The long-term outlook for the domestic tourism market remains positive, while the business market is influenced by both domestic and international factors [10]. Management Changes - Recent leadership changes in Jinjiang, including the return of a familiar figure to stabilize and refocus the business, are expected to positively impact future operations [34][36]. - Huazhu's management changes are not anticipated to significantly affect the company's strategic direction [33]. Conclusion - The hotel industry is on a recovery path with strong performance metrics, particularly in business and tourism sectors. The focus on maintaining pricing strategies and enhancing operational quality will be crucial for sustained growth in the coming years.

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price of 18.63 RMB, reflecting a 25x PE valuation for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is entering a recovery phase with a narrowing decline in performance metrics, benefiting from accelerated store openings and improving operational efficiency [4][9]. - Q3 2025 revenue was 2.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.60%, while net profit was 0.36 billion RMB, down 2.21%. For the first three quarters, revenue totaled 5.78 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 1.81%, with net profit increasing by 4.36% to 0.75 billion RMB [4][9]. - Key performance indicators showed RevPAR at -2.8%, occupancy rate (OCC) at -0.8%, and average daily rate (ADR) at -1.7%, indicating a recovery trend compared to previous quarters [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025E are 7.63 billion RMB, with a net profit of 0.85 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 5.7% from the previous year [3][4]. - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 44.79%, with sales expense ratio at 8.85% and general & administrative expense ratio at 9.92% [4][9]. - The company opened 387 new stores in Q3 2025, accelerating from 364 in Q2 and 300 in Q1, indicating a strong recovery in core brand expansion [4][9].

Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry has shown signs of recovery since late August, with September data turning positive and a significant increase in both volume and price during the National Day holiday in October, indicating a rebound from the bottom [1][2] - Major brands like Hanting and Quanjing reported positive performance for the first time in 18 months, suggesting market stabilization [1][4] Key Insights - **Market Performance**: Post-National Day, market performance varied across regions. Cities like Beijing and Shanghai continued to show improvement, while Guangdong faced challenges due to external events [5][6] - **Tourism Trends**: Record high travel numbers and increased disposable income among the middle class have driven hotel performance. The exit of older hotels and the rise of high-quality establishments have also contributed to improved metrics [6][7] - **Investment Opportunities**: The decline in commercial property prices (down approximately 30% from peak) and policies allowing the conversion of office spaces into hotels present new investment opportunities [8] Financial Metrics - **Average Daily Rate (ADR)**: September saw a significant increase in ADR across all stores, with occupancy rates and overnight rates also improving markedly [4] - **Return on Investment**: The payback period for mid-range and upscale hotels has extended to approximately 4.5 years, yet the market still holds substantial growth potential [9][10] Competitive Landscape - **Brand Performance**: Brands like Quanjing, Atour, and Hilton Garden Inn are performing well, with Hanting and Quanjing showing strong recovery [1][10] - **Quality vs. Price**: Despite a trend of consumption downgrade, high-quality mid-range products remain competitive, with brands like Atour and Huazhu achieving occupancy and RevPAR above industry averages [11][12] Supply Chain Advantages - Huazhu's supply chain benefits from standardized, large-scale procurement, which helps control costs and improve investment returns for franchisees [13] - The competitive edge of Huazhu's supply chain is difficult for other hotel groups to replicate due to its established scale and negotiation power [14] Future Directions - The domestic hotel industry is expected to continue evolving towards high-quality, mid-range offerings, driven by increasing demand from the middle class for value and quality [11][12] - The introduction of new brands, such as Atour's Light Stay, reflects a successful strategy to penetrate both high-end and lower-tier markets [15] Impact of New Openings - New hotel openings can impact the performance of existing hotels, but the extent of this impact depends on the local market dynamics [16] Technological Integration - The entry of internet companies into the hotel sector is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and user experience, with AI technology beginning to play a role in hotel management [16] Conclusion - The hotel industry is on a recovery path, with positive indicators in performance metrics and investment opportunities. The focus on quality and competitive pricing will be crucial for sustaining growth in the evolving market landscape [1][10][11]

看好后续头部酒店集团RevPAR同比缺口继续收敛，并有望于明年实现持平甚至转正，重视配置窗口。 建议把握两条投资主线：短期行业处于触底回升阶段，建议布局四季度具备明确催化（零售双十一）、 酒店和零售业务成长确定性高的企业；中期周期改善回升维度，建议配置充分受益于商务需求回暖与行 业集中度提升，同时持续推进组织进化和产品优化的企业。当前酒店行业估值处于合理略低区间，龙头 具备较强的配置价值。 新京报贝壳财经讯 10月1日，据"中信证券研究"公众号消息，当前酒店行业呈现需求复苏、供需再平 衡、龙头份额加速提升阶段。需求端，9月行业RevPAR（每间可供出租客房产生的平均实际营业收入） 同比降幅继续收窄，中端、中高端优于经济型、一线与新一线优于下沉市场，商务需求回暖趋势明确。 中秋国庆假期预订呈现量价齐升态势，且品质化消费趋势明显，酒店行业RevPAR同比有望实现中高个 位数增长。供给端保持较快增长，但结构显著分化，经济型和下沉市场成为主要增长极，头部企业增速 领先同行。 编辑 王琳琳 ...

Core Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by robust domestic economic growth and favorable policies, with Jin Jiang Hotels emerging as a market leader capitalizing on these opportunities [1][2] - Increased consumer spending power and the implementation of visa-free policies have significantly boosted both domestic and inbound tourism, leading to a surge in hotel accommodation demand [1] - Jin Jiang Hotels has a diverse brand portfolio catering to various customer segments, enhancing its market appeal and occupancy rates [1] Company Overview - Jin Jiang Hotels has signed over 17,000 hotels, establishing a vast presence across major domestic cities and key international locations, which provides a competitive edge in resource integration and operational efficiency [2] - The company's ability to quickly adapt to market demands during peak seasons through internal resource allocation has resulted in higher overall occupancy rates [2] - Utilizing a large membership system and digital marketing strategies, Jin Jiang Hotels effectively attracts consumers with targeted promotions, further boosting occupancy and revenue [2] Future Outlook - Investor sentiment towards the hotel industry remains positive, with Jin Jiang Hotels positioned as a premium investment target due to its strong brand and scale advantages [2] - Continued economic development and tourism market growth in China are expected to provide Jin Jiang Hotels with ongoing opportunities for performance enhancement and market share expansion [2]