国信证券发布研报称，维持华住集团-S(01179)"优于大市"评级，酒店行业依托供需飞轮效应持续成长， 当前周期调整底部有望迎来供需再平衡。以华住为例，其通过"产品-流量-回报-规模"模型构建成长飞 轮，凭借多品牌矩阵、超3亿会员的强流量与领先回报率驱动规模扩张。未来将通过门店下沉、中高端 品牌升级及轻资产模式进阶，实现市占率与盈利中枢同步提升，长期成长空间可期。 国信证券主要观点如下： 需求复苏不及预期；行业竞争恶化；中高端培育不及预期等。 穿越周期二十年，"产品-流量-回报-规模"模型重新定义有限服务酒店业 华住上市15年门店与业绩CAGR均超20%，背靠创始人与管理层战略远见与数字化高效组织，公司开创 出一条中国特色有限服务酒店业的成长飞轮：1)强产品：经济型到中高端多品牌高效迭代，汉庭逆势成 长、全季中端领先、桔子错位发展，满足差异化客群需求；2)强流量：会员规模突破3亿居行业首位， 中央预订占比超60%叠加大数据强化系统性收益管理；3)强回报：同店RevPAR领先同业30-80%，人房 比0.17，供应链降本超20%，驱动加盟商投资意愿；4)规模强势扩张：加盟门店增速维持15-20%。 价值重估三段 ...

酒店行业具备供需飞轮效应(前端网络效应，后端规模效应)，美国龙头依托全服务国际化品牌溢价市值 领先，中国有限服务龙头背靠中国经济与创新模式快速跃升。 周期调整底部供需有望再平衡，供给结构性改革为成长主旋律 国信证券主要观点如下： 酒店行业具备供需飞轮效应，海内外均缔造千亿市值龙头 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，维持华住集团-S(01179)"优于大市"评级，酒店行业依托供需 飞轮效应持续成长，当前周期调整底部有望迎来供需再平衡。以华住为例，其通过"产品-流量-回报-规 模"模型构建成长飞轮，凭借多品牌矩阵、超3亿会员的强流量与领先回报率驱动规模扩张。未来将通过 门店下沉、中高端品牌升级及轻资产模式进阶，实现市占率与盈利中枢同步提升，长期成长空间可期。 风险提示 需求复苏不及预期；行业竞争恶化；中高端培育不及预期等。 酒店行业正处两年调整底部，后续供需关系有望再平衡：休闲旅游稳健增长、商旅需求基数走低；龙头 储备店较高位回落，经营策略从OCC优先转向最优RevPAR推动价格企稳。长周期看，中国服务消费占 比46%仍处提升通道，对标美国1980年代住宿支出占比持续提升。供给端结构性机遇凸显：租金红利弱 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月17日 2025年12月18日 华住集团-S（01179.HK） 优于大市 本土酒店领军者的价值重构进行时 酒店行业具备供需飞轮效应，海内外均缔造千亿市值龙头。酒店行业具备供 需飞轮效应（前端网络效应，后端规模效应），美国龙头依托全服务国际化 品牌溢价市值领先，中国有限服务龙头背靠中国经济与创新模式快速跃升。 行业趋势：周期调整底部供需有望再平衡，供给结构性改革为成长主旋律。 酒店行业正处两年调整底部，后续供需关系有望再平衡：休闲旅游稳健增长、 商旅需求基数走低；龙头储备店较高位回落，经营策略从 OCC 优先转向最优 RevPAR 推动价格企稳。长周期看，中国服务消费占比 46%仍处提升通道，对 标美国 1980 年代住宿支出占比持续提升。供给端结构性机遇凸显：租金红 利弱化下加盟商回归投资属性，估算连锁化率从 40%（美国 72%）提升至 60-70%对应 30-109%房量空间；其中龙头参考海外 TOP5 市占率存翻倍潜力。 华住模式：穿越周期二十年，"产品-流量-回报-规模"模型重新定义有限 服务酒店业。华住上市 15 年门店与业绩 CAGR 均超 20%，背靠创始人与 ...

Core Insights - The hotel industry is witnessing a transformation where spaces are being redefined to cater to remote workers and non-guests, creating a "third space" economy that aims to drive new revenue growth amidst overall industry pressure [1][2] Group 1: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting from paying for accommodation to paying for experiences and environments, with hotel lobbies becoming preferred spaces for remote work due to their amenities like stable WiFi and comfortable seating [2] - High-end hotel facilities such as gyms and pools are also attracting non-guests, with experience vouchers becoming popular on second-hand platforms [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - Leading hotel groups like Huazhu and Atour are focusing on the "third space" as a key strategy to counter industry challenges, with Atour reporting a 76.4% year-on-year increase in retail revenue, reaching 846 million yuan, which now constitutes 32.2% of total revenue [2][3] - Atour's strategy includes transforming hotel lobbies into multifunctional spaces that integrate retail and cultural experiences, with retail revenue share increasing from 13.8% in 2022 to 30.3% in 2024 [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Directions - The competition in the hotel third space is evolving towards precision and efficiency, focusing on consumer needs through differentiated experiences that enhance both non-room revenue and lodging services [4] - Future trends may include deeper integration of local culture, technology-driven immersive experiences, and enhanced membership systems as consumer demands continue to evolve [5]

Core Insights - The hotel industry is facing a paradox of increasing room supply while experiencing declining operational metrics, leading to confusion and challenges within the sector [1][3] - The industry is recognized as a "pillar of the nation" in terms of national strategy, with government support for high-quality development, yet the operational performance remains unsatisfactory [3][4] Industry Status - The hotel industry is characterized as having "face" but lacking "substance," indicating a disparity between its perceived status and actual performance [3] - In Q3 of this year, key performance indicators such as RevPAR, ADR, and OCC for major hotel groups have shown a decline [4] - Over the past 12 months, hotel room supply in China increased by 3.5%, while demand only rose by 0.4%, resulting in a 1% drop in room revenue [5] - The average hotel occupancy rate is projected to reach 38.2% by Q1 2025, indicating a growing oversupply issue [5] - The proportion of hotel revenue to total tourism expenditure has decreased from 26% in 2008 to 11% in 2023, highlighting a significant decline in the industry's financial health [5] Market Trends - The hotel industry is undergoing a new cycle characterized by continuous supply growth and declining tourism spending [5][8] - There is a noticeable differentiation in performance between international and domestic hotel groups, with luxury hotels maintaining stable demand while mid-range hotels face ongoing pressure [8] - The industry is experiencing a shift from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation," with a focus on quality over quantity [12] Future Directions - Digital transformation is identified as a key strategy for enhancing efficiency and customer experience, with a push for adopting advanced technologies [19][20] - Understanding and catering to diverse market demands is crucial, as consumer preferences are evolving towards personalized and thematic experiences [22][24] - There is a growing trend of Chinese hotel brands expanding internationally, leveraging strengths in service and technology while addressing gaps in management capabilities [25][26] - The industry is encouraged to actively seek new opportunities and adapt to changing market dynamics over the next five years [27]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.961 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, exceeding the guidance of 2%-6% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue from direct hotels was 3.487 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, accounting for 50.1% of total revenue [1] - Revenue from franchise and managed hotels reached 3.309 billion yuan, up 27.2% year-on-year, making up 47.5% of total revenue, with growth exceeding the guidance of 20%-24% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.469 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [1] Group 2: RevPAR and Occupancy Rates - Domestic hotel RevPAR was 256 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with ADR at 304 yuan (up 0.9%) and OCC at 84.1% (down 0.8 percentage points) [1] - International hotel RevPAR was 87 euros, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, with ADR at 117 euros (down 0.2%) and OCC at 74.4% (up 4.6 percentage points) [1] Group 3: Cost Management and Profitability - Hotel operating costs were 4.1 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, but the operating cost ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points due to a light-asset strategy [2] - SG&A expenses were 884 million yuan, down 9.3% year-on-year, partly due to a one-time restructuring cost of 81 million yuan in Q3 2024 [2] - The overall operating profit margin improved to 29.4%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased contributions from managed and franchise business revenues [2] Group 4: Expansion and New Brand Launch - As of Q3 2025, the company operated 12,702 hotels globally, with 1.246 million rooms, having opened 749 new hotels domestically and 1 internationally in Q3 [2] - The company plans to launch a new mid-to-high-end brand "All Seasons Grand View" in Q4, aimed at attracting travelers with Eastern culture [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company expects total revenue growth of 2%-6% year-on-year for Q4, with managed and franchise revenue projected to grow by 17%-21% [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 25.28 billion, 26.70 billion, and 28.23 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 5.6%, and 5.7% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.54 billion, 5.11 billion, and 5.80 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.1%, 12.5%, and 13.4% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 6.961 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, exceeding the guidance of 2%-6% [1]. - The domestic business generated revenue of 5.722 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, also surpassing the guidance of 4%-8% [1]. - The company is expanding its portfolio with the introduction of a new mid-to-high-end brand, "全季大观" [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company's direct hotel revenue was 3.487 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, while franchise and management revenue was 3.309 billion yuan, up 27.2% year-on-year [1]. - The overall operating profit margin improved to 29.4%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the growth in franchise and management business contributions [3]. - The company expects total revenue growth of 2%-6% in Q4 2025, with management franchise and licensing revenue projected to grow by 17%-21% [3]. Market Performance - The domestic hotel RevPAR was 256 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while the overseas hotel RevPAR was 87 euros, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company has opened a total of over 2,000 new hotels this year, aiming for a target of 2,300 by year-end [3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 25.276 billion yuan, 26.697 billion yuan, and 28.225 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 5.6%, and 5.7% respectively [4]. - The expected net profits for the same period are 4.543 billion yuan, 5.112 billion yuan, and 5.795 billion yuan, with growth rates of 49.1%, 12.5%, and 13.4% respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings with revenue of 6.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.469 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected revenue growth and improved profitability in domestic and DH segments [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 overall GMV reached 30.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.5% and a sequential improvement in growth rate [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was 2.513 billion yuan, up 18.9% compared to the previous quarter's 11.4% growth, with Legacy-Huazhu contributing 2.446 billion yuan, a 16.9% increase [2] - The company’s adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.520 billion yuan, representing a 10.8% increase [2] Operational Metrics - Q3 2025 showed significant recovery in operational metrics, with overall occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR showing minor declines compared to the previous year, indicating stabilization in the industry [3] - The company opened 750 new stores and closed 185, resulting in a net increase of 565 stores, with a notable acceleration in the mid-range segment [3] - The company aims to become a leader in the mid-to-high-end market by 2030, with a pipeline of 2,748 stores as of Q3 2025 [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing pricing strategies, enhancing membership and supply chain capabilities, and expanding its mid-to-high-end brand matrix, as well as exploring high-end, lower-tier, and overseas markets for long-term growth [3]

Core Insights - Huazhu Group has launched a new brand "All Seasons Grand View" to meet the evolving demands of Chinese travelers, emphasizing the integration of Eastern culture into the hospitality experience [1][6][10] Market Trends - There is a growing demand for culturally immersive experiences among travelers, with 73% of young travelers prioritizing local cultural elements in their accommodation choices [3][4] - The high-end hotel market in China is experiencing a supply-demand gap, with only 28% penetration in first-tier and new first-tier cities, compared to over 60% in Europe and the US [5][10] Brand Positioning - "All Seasons Grand View" aims to redefine the hotel experience by focusing on cultural aesthetics and emotional resonance, moving beyond traditional hospitality services [6][9] - The brand's design incorporates elements like water, clouds, pine, and tea, creating a unique aesthetic that resonates with Eastern cultural values [6][8] Competitive Advantage - Huazhu Group leverages its strong supply chain and technology to enhance operational efficiency, allowing for a superior customer service experience [10][12] - The brand will collaborate with renowned contemporary artists and experts to create a distinctive and immersive experience, addressing industry homogenization [8][9] Future Outlook - The launch of "All Seasons Grand View" is part of Huazhu's strategy to fill the gaps in the mid-to-high-end hotel market and capitalize on the growing demand for culturally rich experiences [5][10] - With a membership base of nearly 300 million, Huazhu Group is well-positioned to drive customer engagement and loyalty for the new brand [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Huazhu Group has launched a new brand "All Seasons Grand View" to meet the evolving demands of Chinese travelers, reflecting a shift towards high-quality, culturally immersive hotel experiences [1][5][12]. Market Demand and Trends - There is a growing demand for hotel experiences that incorporate local culture, with 73% of young travelers prioritizing cultural elements in their accommodation choices [3][4]. - High-net-worth individuals also emphasize unique cultural experiences as a primary criterion for hotel selection, with 78% highlighting this preference [3]. - The emotional resonance and cultural identity in travel experiences are increasingly important, with 53% of consumers seeking deeper emotional connections during their stays [3]. Industry Transformation - The hotel industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on quality development, particularly in the mid to high-end market, where there is a significant gap in quality supply [4][12]. - The current market shows a low penetration rate of mid to high-end hotels in first-tier and new first-tier cities, at only 28%, compared to over 60% in Western markets [4]. Brand Positioning and Strategy - "All Seasons Grand View" aims to create a unique cultural experience rather than just a traditional hotel stay, focusing on elements like tea culture and artistic design [5][9]. - The brand will collaborate with contemporary Chinese artists and experts to differentiate itself from competitors and address industry homogenization [11]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Huazhu Group's extensive brand portfolio, including economy to high-end hotels, positions "All Seasons Grand View" as a key addition to its market coverage [12]. - The company leverages its strong supply chain and technology to enhance operational efficiency, allowing for a better customer service experience [14][17]. - Huazhu's membership program, with nearly 300 million members, provides a solid customer base for "All Seasons Grand View," enhancing its market potential [14][17]. Future Outlook - The launch of "All Seasons Grand View" is seen as a significant step for Huazhu Group, aiming to redefine the Chinese hotel industry and establish a world-class brand [17].