大家好，我是乔叔，今天咱们聊聊2025年旅游消费的那些新变化，看看为啥现在不是没钱花，而是大家 都变聪明了，不敢乱花了。 2025年十一长假，在高速服务区，家家户户的帐篷排得密密麻麻，烟火气和忙活声连成一片。 看着大家宁可将就车边扎营，也不舍得住涨价的旅店，这股"露宿"热潮给了旅游业一记闷棍，也翻开了 中国旅游消费的全新一页。 北京、上海这些以往的花钱大户，反而放慢了脚步，东北、西北等地反而闹腾了起来。以往说城市居民 花钱大方，现在反倒是农村居民出手快。 这个改变是生活压力和安全感的左右。京沪一带高房贷压得人喘不过气，为了省点以后用的钱，小家庭 个个勒紧裤腰带，哪怕手里有点存款，大多开始学会把钱花得更谨慎。 反观东三省和内陆不少地方，居民压力小，赚得不算高，但日子过得自在，也更舍得拿钱出来转一圈， 吃个小吃、滑个雪、看个演出，开心才最重要。 | | | 2024年各省消费情况可划分为四种类型 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 消费类型 | 核心特征 | 包括省份 | | | 敢于消费型 | 人均收入偏低。 消费率偏高 | 甘肃、贵州、云南、青海、吉林、广西、河南、黑龙江、 四川、 ...

12月26日，以"新开局、新动能、新征程"为主题的"启航·2025金融峰会"在北京圆满举办，大会由金融界主办，汇聚监管部门、行业协会、金融机构、 上市公司、媒体等数百位相关领导和重磅嘉宾。会上，第十四届金融界"金智奖"年度评选结果重磅揭晓，华住集团荣获"杰出成长性企业"。 "杰出成长性企业"奖项的核心标准在于综合考察企业的持续增长潜力与高质量发展能力。 作为全球领先的酒店管理集团，华住已构建起包含高端、中高端、经济型的全品类品牌矩阵，拥有禧玥、花间堂、汉庭、全季等多个知名品牌，满足 不同客群的住宿需求。 连锁布局与规模化优势是华住集团稳健发展的核心支撑。截至2025年9月30日，集团在20个国家经营12,702家酒店。在《HOTELS》杂志发布的2024 年"全球酒店集团205强"榜单上，华住集团位居第四名，旗下汉庭酒店以超35万间客房成为世界规模第一品牌，全季酒店也以近32.6万间客房位列全球 第四。 "金智奖"旨在树立高质量发展标杆，引导上市公司聚焦主业、持续创新、践行社会责任，推动资本向优质企业集聚。本届评选中，金融界上市公司研 究院紧密契合"十五五"规划建议中"提升上市公司质量"的要求，将高质量发展内 ...

华住集团在19个国家、1500+城市经营12,702家酒店，拥有1,246,240间在营客房。旗下汇聚全季、汉 庭、桔子、全季大观、城际、桔子水晶、漫心、美仑等30余个知名酒店及公寓品牌，覆盖了从豪华到经 济型酒店市场。作为华住集团核心会员俱乐部与高效预订平台，华住会自2012年率先推出在线自助选房 服务起，持续以创新定义行业标准。从2013年实现业内罕见的积分货币化，到2024年升级全积分兑房、 在线免费升房等权益，将不确定性福利转化为确定性体验。 依托"住+行+娱+购"全域生态，华住会跨界联动，打破酒店物理空间限制，联动出行、赛事、文旅、本 地生活、银行等领域资源，构建"住宿+"生态场景，延伸体验价值。如今的华住会，以三项"全球第 一"坐稳行业头部：超3亿会员规模、每间客房会员数243、74%会员预订占比，三项核心数据均登顶全 球。这一组组数字，不仅是华住20年深耕住宿赛道的成长注脚，更印证着华住会已构建起有温度的品质 生活共同体，持续为会员创造超越住宿本身的权益价值与情感共鸣，成功入选年度行业推荐榜单。 ...

Industry Overview - The hotel industry exhibits a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving valuations in the hundreds of billions [1] - The industry is currently at a two-year adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand relationships to rebalance, driven by structural reforms in supply [1] - The long-term outlook indicates that China's service consumption, currently at 46%, is still on an upward trajectory, similar to the trend observed in the U.S. in the 1980s [1] Company Insights - Huazhu's model has redefined the limited-service hotel sector over the past 20 years, achieving a CAGR of over 20% in both store count and performance [2] - The company has developed a growth flywheel characterized by strong products, robust traffic, high returns, and aggressive expansion [2] - Huazhu's membership base has surpassed 300 million, leading the industry, with over 60% of bookings coming from central reservations [2] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economic and mid-range hotels by 2030 [3] - Brand upgrades are underway, with a focus on enhancing management, products, and membership, which could elevate profitability and valuation [3] - The company aims to adopt a light-asset model similar to overseas hotels, supporting stable cash flows and shareholder returns of over 5% [3] Investment Recommendations - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 are set at 4.44 billion and 5.17 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight upward revision for 2027 to 5.86 billion yuan [4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the next year is projected to be between 43-45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4] - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating, with expected performance in 2026 ranging from 5 to 5.4 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - H World Group's stock price has steadily increased since 2025, reaching a new high of over $48 on December 12, 2022, reflecting strong investor confidence in its business model and long-term growth potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - H World Group has demonstrated solid operational performance, with revenue and business expansion exceeding market analyst predictions, indicating its ability to deliver on commitments even in complex environments [2] - Major brokerage firms, including JPMorgan, CICC, Huatai, and Guosen Securities, have issued optimistic ratings for H World Group, recommending "buy" or "overweight" [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The hotel industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with a clear trend of resources concentrating towards leading chain brands, enhancing the industry's chain rate [3] - H World Group, as an industry leader, has shown resilience during industry cycles, maintaining high occupancy rates and stable average daily rates (ADR) [4] Group 3: Strategic Advantages and Growth Drivers - H World Group possesses three competitive advantages: a robust brand, a strong membership system, and advanced technology, which support its operational resilience [6] - The company has built a competitive membership system with over 300 million members, leading to high direct sales and reduced reliance on OTA platforms [6][7] - H World Group's digital capabilities have created a positive cycle of cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and improved user experience, which are crucial for navigating industry cycles [8] Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in lower-tier markets, where the chain rate is significantly lower compared to first and second-tier cities, presenting a substantial growth opportunity [9] - H World Group has made significant progress in the mid-to-high-end market, with over 1,600 mid-to-high-end stores opened or in the pipeline, marking a 25.3% year-on-year increase [11] - The company's long-term growth strategy is supported by its ability to adapt to market changes and enhance its brand portfolio, positioning it well for future expansion [14]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is expected to continue growing due to a supply-demand flywheel effect, with a potential rebalancing of supply and demand at the current cycle's adjustment bottom. Huazhu Group is positioned to leverage its multi-brand matrix and over 300 million members to drive scale expansion and profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The hotel industry is experiencing a two-year adjustment bottom, with a forecasted rebalancing of supply and demand. The leisure travel sector is showing steady growth, while business travel demand is declining. Leading companies are shifting their strategies from prioritizing occupancy to optimizing RevPAR to stabilize prices [2]. - The structural opportunities on the supply side are becoming more apparent, with the chain rate expected to increase from 40% (in the U.S. at 72%) to 60-70%, corresponding to a potential room supply increase of 30-109% [2]. Group 2: Huazhu Group's Growth Model - Huazhu has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in both store count and performance over the past 15 years, driven by strategic foresight and a highly efficient digital organization. The company has established a growth flywheel in the limited-service hotel sector through strong product offerings, significant member traffic, high returns, and aggressive scale expansion [3]. - The company has a diverse product range from economy to mid-range hotels, with brands like Hanting and Qianxi catering to different customer needs. Its membership base of over 300 million is the largest in the industry, with over 60% of bookings coming from central reservations [3]. Group 3: Value Reassessment - Huazhu is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economy and mid-range hotels by 2030, leading the market share [4]. - The company is in a phase of brand upgrading, with mid-range brands poised for growth. The estimated annual fees for mid-range hotels are projected to be 1.5-3 times higher than those for lower-end hotels, which could enhance profitability and valuation [4]. - The company is also transitioning towards a light-asset model, which is expected to support stable cash flows and provide a shareholder return of over 5%, potentially leading to valuation premiums [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the hotel industry is experiencing a supply-demand flywheel effect, which is expected to lead to growth and a rebalancing of supply and demand in the current adjustment cycle [1][2] - Huazhu Group is leveraging a "product-traffic-return-scale" model to drive growth, supported by a multi-brand matrix and over 300 million members, which enhances its scale expansion [1][3] - The hotel industry is currently at a two-year adjustment bottom, with expectations for a rebalancing of supply-demand relationships, driven by steady growth in leisure travel and a decline in business travel demand [2][4] Group 2 - Huazhu has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in both store count and performance over the past 15 years, thanks to strategic foresight and a digitalized organization [3] - The company is expected to expand its store count to 18,000 by 2030, leading in market share, while also focusing on brand upgrades and enhancing its mid-to-high-end offerings [4] - The shift towards a light-asset model, comparable to overseas hotel models, is anticipated to support stable cash flows and shareholder returns of over 5%, potentially leading to valuation premiums [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving significant market capitalizations. The industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand rebalancing and structural reforms driving growth [1][21] - The company's growth model, which has been effective for over 20 years, emphasizes a "product-traffic-return-scale" cycle, showcasing strong product offerings, substantial membership growth, and efficient cost management [2][3] - The long-term outlook includes a three-phase value reassessment narrative focusing on store expansion, brand upgrades, and model evolution, with projections for significant increases in mid-to-high-end hotel numbers by 2030 [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The hotel industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and leading companies' pricing strategies. The supply side is expected to undergo structural reforms, enhancing growth opportunities [21][24] - The demand side is projected to grow steadily, with leisure travel maintaining resilience and business travel gradually recovering. The overall hotel demand is expected to stabilize as supply expands [24][39] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economy and mid-range hotels by 2030. Brand upgrades are anticipated to enhance profitability and valuation [3][4] - The company's model is evolving towards a light-asset approach, which is expected to support stable cash flows and shareholder returns exceeding 5% [3][4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 44.4 billion CNY for 2025, increasing to 58.6 billion CNY by 2027, with a corresponding rise in earnings per share [5][4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the company is projected to be between 43 and 45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4][6]

酒店行业会议交流 20251203 摘要 2024 年以价换量策略使 RevPAR 提升约 2%，ADR 下降 1.5%，OCC 提升近 2.8%。11 月各周 RevPAR 数据震荡，首周受益于活动带动提升 4.1%，月底下降 1.5%。 休闲旅游、错峰旅游及疗休养团对酒店业有提振作用，有旅游资源的城 市通过赛事和活动吸引游客，提高酒店消费。君亭酒店与湖北文旅合作， 有助于抵御市场风险，类似首旅模式，但需观察 ADR 和 OCC 数据是否 真正提高。 连锁化率提高背景下，中档连锁酒店面临市场挤压，项目数量扩展受限 可能导致破窗效应。高端品牌受益于消费能力，中高端品牌依赖商务客 群及活动流量，恢复速度存在差异。 亚朵高线品牌恢复较好，萨和系列直营店及优质区位亚朵 4.0/3.6 产品 表现强势，但门店数量有限。中低端产品如全季、橘子水晶等老店数据 稳定，ADR 和 OCC 表现坚挺。 华北、华东地区酒店市场恢复明显，商务和休闲市场均有回升。云南连 锁品牌增长较好，但整体增速逊于华北和华东。展会及城市活动频率也 以华北和华东为主。 Q&A 最新的周评数据显示，酒店行业的 RevPAR、OCC 和 ADR 是否有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings with revenue of 6.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.469 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected revenue growth and improved profitability in domestic and DH segments [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 overall GMV reached 30.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.5% and a sequential improvement in growth rate [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was 2.513 billion yuan, up 18.9% compared to the previous quarter's 11.4% growth, with Legacy-Huazhu contributing 2.446 billion yuan, a 16.9% increase [2] - The company’s adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.520 billion yuan, representing a 10.8% increase [2] Operational Metrics - Q3 2025 showed significant recovery in operational metrics, with overall occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR showing minor declines compared to the previous year, indicating stabilization in the industry [3] - The company opened 750 new stores and closed 185, resulting in a net increase of 565 stores, with a notable acceleration in the mid-range segment [3] - The company aims to become a leader in the mid-to-high-end market by 2030, with a pipeline of 2,748 stores as of Q3 2025 [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing pricing strategies, enhancing membership and supply chain capabilities, and expanding its mid-to-high-end brand matrix, as well as exploring high-end, lower-tier, and overseas markets for long-term growth [3]